Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Genk v Westerlo

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 18:45 UTC

Final: Genk 3–2 Westerlo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Genk (Local)

Prediction 67.12%1.49fair odd
EV -2.01%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -4.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.19%66.80%67.06%70.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.381.391.4676.92%72.39%71.94%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Westerlo (Visit)

Prediction 14.40%6.95fair odd
EV +7.98%
Edge +1.06%
Kelly +1.23%
Growth +0.098%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.85%14.62%14.36%17.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.006.456.507.5020.00%15.50%15.38%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.48%5.41fair odd
EV +1.66%
Edge +0.301%
Kelly +0.368%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.80%18.58%18.58%20.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.914.905.5022.22%20.35%20.41%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Genk (Local): 67.12%; Westerlo (Visit): 14.40%; Draw: 18.48%. For Westerlo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.95. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.98%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.69%E -3.30%K -11.17%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.85%EV +7.98%E +1.06%K +1.23%G +0.098%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.28%EV -7.58%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-15 18:34
ATG (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.69%E -3.30%K -11.17%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.85%EV +7.98%E +1.06%K +1.23%G +0.098%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.28%EV -7.58%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-15 18:35
Grosvenor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.31%EV -6.03%E -4.31%K -15.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.46%EV +0.786%E +0.112%K +0.131%G +0.001%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -9.43%E -1.92%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 18:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.04%EV -6.03%E -4.31%K -15.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV +0.786%E +0.112%K +0.131%G +0.001%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -11.28%E -2.35%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 18:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.04%EV -6.03%E -4.31%K -15.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV +0.786%E +0.112%K +0.131%G +0.001%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -11.28%E -2.35%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 18:34
Casumo🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.04%EV -6.03%E -4.31%K -15.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV +0.786%E +0.112%K +0.131%G +0.001%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -11.28%E -2.35%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 18:35
betPARX🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.04%EV -6.03%E -4.31%K -15.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV +0.786%E +0.112%K +0.131%G +0.001%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -11.28%E -2.35%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 18:34
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.72%E -6.41%K -24.22%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +0.786%E +0.112%K +0.131%G +0.001%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -2.96%E -0.564%K -0.697%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 17:00
betano_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.72%E -6.41%K -24.22%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +0.786%E +0.112%K +0.131%G +0.001%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -2.96%E -0.564%K -0.697%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 16:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.00%EV -11.40%E -8.64%K -35.64%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.20%EV +0.786%E +0.112%K +0.131%G +0.001%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV +1.66%E +0.301%K +0.368%G +0.006%8.2%2026-08-15 18:39
Pinnacle🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.38%EV -4.02%E -2.81%K -9.35%G +0.000%6.98I 14.33%NM 13.80%EV +0.498%E +0.071%K +0.083%G +0.000%5.12I 19.53%NM 18.82%EV -5.37%E -1.05%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-15 18:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.20%EV -6.70%E -4.82%K -17.19%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.74%EV -2.09%E -0.308%K -0.361%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.06%EV -9.43%E -1.92%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 18:39
LowVig.ag🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.20%EV -6.70%E -4.82%K -17.19%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.74%EV -2.09%E -0.308%K -0.361%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.06%EV -9.43%E -1.92%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 18:39
BetAnything🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.20%EV -6.70%E -4.82%K -17.19%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.74%EV -2.09%E -0.308%K -0.361%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.06%EV -9.43%E -1.92%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 18:39
Coolbet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.31%EV -8.05%E -5.87%K -21.75%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.86%EV -2.81%E -0.417%K -0.489%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.83%EV -2.96%E -0.564%K -0.697%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 17:09
Marathon Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.55%EV -7.38%E -5.35%K -19.41%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.81%EV -2.81%E -0.417%K -0.489%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -7.58%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 18:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.63%EV -9.39%E -6.96%K -26.83%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.73%EV -2.81%E -0.417%K -0.489%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.65%EV -2.96%E -0.564%K -0.697%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-15 17:09
NordicBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.21%EV -5.36%E -3.80%K -13.08%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.93%EV -3.53%E -0.527%K -0.620%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -13.13%E -2.79%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 18:04
Betsson🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.21%EV -5.36%E -3.80%K -13.08%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.93%EV -3.53%E -0.527%K -0.620%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -13.13%E -2.79%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 18:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.12%EV -8.05%E -5.87%K -21.75%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.93%EV -3.53%E -0.527%K -0.620%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.95%EV -3.89%E -0.747%K -0.925%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 18:24
1xBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 66.51%EV -2.01%E -1.37%K -4.36%G +0.000%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.56%EV -3.97%E -0.595%K -0.699%G +0.000%5.13I 19.49%NM 18.93%EV -5.18%E -1.01%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-15 18:40
DraftKings🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.56%EV -4.69%E -3.30%K -11.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.54%EV -6.41%E -0.987%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV -7.58%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-15 18:35
BetUS🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.59%EV -5.36%E -3.80%K -13.08%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -6.41%E -0.987%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.97%EV -8.51%E -1.72%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 18:39
Fanatics🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.79%EV -7.38%E -5.35%K -19.41%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.39%EV -6.41%E -0.987%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -2.96%E -0.564%K -0.697%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 18:19
theScore Bet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.95%EV -8.05%E -5.87%K -21.75%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.32%EV -6.41%E -0.987%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -2.96%E -0.564%K -0.697%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 18:39
betfred_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.51%EV -8.72%E -6.41%K -24.22%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -6.41%E -0.987%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -7.58%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-15 16:09
Unibet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 66.29%EV -8.05%E -5.87%K -21.75%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.97%EV -6.41%E -0.987%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.74%EV -14.98%E -3.26%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-15 18:39
TABtouch🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.45%EV -8.72%E -6.41%K -24.22%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.41%E -0.987%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -14.98%E -3.26%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 18:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.45%EV -8.72%E -6.41%K -24.22%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.41%E -0.987%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -14.98%E -3.26%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 18:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.33%EV -9.39%E -6.96%K -26.83%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -6.41%E -0.987%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -16.83%E -3.74%K -4.81%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-15 18:34
Suprabets🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.13%EV -6.70%E -4.82%K -17.19%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.58%EV -7.85%E -1.23%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.30%EV -5.74%E -1.12%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 16:29
BetRivers🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.98%EV -7.38%E -5.35%K -19.41%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.23%EV -7.85%E -1.23%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -14.98%E -3.26%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-15 18:29
Virgin Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 66.35%EV -10.06%E -7.51%K -29.59%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.89%EV -7.85%E -1.23%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.76%EV -16.83%E -3.74%K -4.81%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-15 18:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 66.35%EV -10.06%E -7.51%K -29.59%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.89%EV -7.85%E -1.23%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.76%EV -16.83%E -3.74%K -4.81%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-15 18:34
BetMGM🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.61%EV -4.02%E -2.81%K -9.35%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.24%EV -10.01%E -1.60%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.14%EV -2.96%E -0.564%K -0.697%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 17:04
PlayUp🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.47%EV -7.38%E -5.35%K -19.41%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.46%EV -10.01%E -1.60%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -16.83%E -3.74%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 16:34
NetBet (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.88%EV -10.73%E -8.07%K -32.52%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.58%EV -12.17%E -2.00%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.53%EV -11.28%E -2.35%K -2.97%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-15 18:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.03%E -4.31%K -15.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -13.61%E -2.27%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.78%EV -2.96%E -0.564%K -0.697%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 17:04
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.03%E -4.31%K -15.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -13.61%E -2.27%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.78%EV -2.96%E -0.564%K -0.697%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 17:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.03%E -4.31%K -15.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -13.61%E -2.27%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.78%EV -2.96%E -0.564%K -0.697%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 17:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.03%E -4.31%K -15.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -13.61%E -2.27%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.78%EV -2.96%E -0.564%K -0.697%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 17:54
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.44%EV -6.03%E -4.31%K -15.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -13.61%E -2.27%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -12.20%E -2.57%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-15 18:35
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.44%EV -6.03%E -4.31%K -15.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -13.61%E -2.27%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -12.20%E -2.57%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-15 18:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.44%EV -6.03%E -4.31%K -15.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -13.61%E -2.27%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -12.20%E -2.57%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-15 18:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.44%EV -6.03%E -4.31%K -15.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -13.61%E -2.27%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -12.20%E -2.57%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-15 18:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.17%EV -6.03%E -4.31%K -15.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.21%EV -13.61%E -2.27%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.62%EV -14.05%E -3.02%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 18:38
Unibet (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.89%EV -9.39%E -6.96%K -26.83%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.05%EV -13.61%E -2.27%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.06%EV -7.58%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 18:19
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.59%EV -10.73%E -8.07%K -32.52%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.76%EV -13.61%E -2.27%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.65%EV -12.20%E -2.57%K -3.25%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-15 16:29
Sky Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.19%EV -10.73%E -8.07%K -32.52%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.67%EV -13.61%E -2.27%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.14%EV -14.98%E -3.26%K -4.16%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-15 17:59
SportsBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 66.63%EV -11.40%E -8.64%K -35.64%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.66%EV -13.61%E -2.27%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.71%EV -13.13%E -2.79%K -3.55%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-15 18:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 67.10%EV -12.75%E -9.80%K -42.49%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.54%EV -13.61%E -2.27%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.36%EV -12.20%E -2.57%K -3.25%G +0.000%14.6%2026-08-15 18:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 66.50%EV -8.05%E -5.87%K -21.75%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.98%EV -17.93%E -3.15%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.52%EV -3.89%E -0.747%K -0.925%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-15 17:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.82%EV -8.72%E -6.41%K -24.22%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.28%EV -20.81%E -3.78%K -4.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.90%EV -7.58%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-15 17:54
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -3.35%E -2.33%K -7.61%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -28.01%E -5.60%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -16.83%E -3.74%K -4.81%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-15 13:48
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 68.90%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.72%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.37%0.8%2026-08-15 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.44I 69.44%NM 68.90%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.72%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.37%0.8%2026-08-15 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 68.90%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.72%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.37%0.8%2026-08-15 18:40
Matchbook1.43I 69.93%NM 69.28%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.70%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.01%0.9%2026-08-15 18:40
Kalshi1.45I 68.97%NM 68.31%7.14I 14.01%NM 13.87%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.82%1.0%2026-08-15 18:15
Smarkets1.44I 69.44%NM 68.67%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.01%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.31%1.1%2026-08-15 18:40