Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Genk v Gent

Inicio: 2026-09-13 14:01 UTC

Final: Genk 1–1 Gent

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Genk (Local)

Predicción 42.90%2.33momio equitativo
EV -0.466%
Ventaja -0.201%
Kelly -0.353%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.32

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.43%42.88%42.83%44.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.002.152.152.3250.00%46.41%46.51%43.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Gent (Visitante)

Predicción 28.71%3.48momio equitativo
EV +1.91%
Ventaja +0.537%
Kelly +0.748%
Crecimiento +0.014%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.11%28.68%28.76%30.15%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.053.253.253.5532.79%30.77%30.77%28.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 28.39%3.52momio equitativo
EV -2.05%
Ventaja -0.594%
Kelly -0.836%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.07%28.43%28.41%30.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.953.223.253.4533.90%31.06%30.77%28.99%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Genk (Local): 42.90%; Gent (Visitante): 28.71%; Empate: 28.39%. Para Gent (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.48. 3 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.55, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.91%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.15%EV -6.47%E -2.97%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.11%EV +1.91%E +0.537%K +0.748%G +0.014%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.73%EV -4.89%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-13 13:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.15%EV -6.47%E -2.97%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.11%EV +1.91%E +0.537%K +0.748%G +0.014%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.73%EV -4.89%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-13 13:16
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.24%EV -4.33%E -1.94%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.55%EV +0.471%E +0.135%K +0.188%G +0.001%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.22%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-13 14:00
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -7.76%E -3.61%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -2.40%E -0.706%K -1.000%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 14:00
Casumo🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.28%EV -7.33%E -3.39%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -2.40%E -0.706%K -1.000%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -9.15%E -2.86%K -4.16%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 14:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.28%EV -7.33%E -3.39%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -2.40%E -0.706%K -1.000%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -9.15%E -2.86%K -4.16%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 14:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.94%EV -9.05%E -4.27%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -2.40%E -0.706%K -1.000%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -7.73%E -2.38%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-13 13:16
betPARX🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.94%EV -9.05%E -4.27%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -2.40%E -0.706%K -1.000%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -7.73%E -2.38%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-13 13:16
Pinnacle🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 42.24%EV -1.75%E -0.766%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.79%EV -3.55%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.96%EV -5.17%E -1.55%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-13 13:50
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.76%E -3.61%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -3.83%E -1.14%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -7.73%E -2.38%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 13:55
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.76%E -3.61%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -3.83%E -1.14%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -7.73%E -2.38%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 13:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -7.76%E -3.61%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -5.27%E -1.60%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -3.47%E -1.02%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 13:59
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.76%E -3.61%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -5.27%E -1.60%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 14:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.16%EV -7.33%E -3.39%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -5.27%E -1.60%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.59%EV -7.44%E -2.28%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 13:55
BetRivers🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.66%EV -10.76%E -5.17%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.52%EV -5.27%E -1.60%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.83%EV -10.57%E -3.35%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-13 13:16
1xBet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.03%EV -4.33%E -1.94%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.16%EV -5.56%E -1.69%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.81%EV -2.05%E -0.594%K -0.836%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-13 13:59
Suprabets🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.08%EV -7.76%E -3.61%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.24%EV -5.84%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.68%EV -8.30%E -2.57%K -3.72%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-13 13:58
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -5.61%E -2.55%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -6.71%E -2.06%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-13 14:00
Coolbet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -7.76%E -3.61%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -6.71%E -2.06%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -3.47%E -1.02%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-13 13:58
BetUS🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -5.61%E -2.55%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -6.71%E -2.06%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -7.73%E -2.38%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 13:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -7.76%E -3.61%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -6.71%E -2.06%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-13 13:59
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -7.76%E -3.61%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -6.71%E -2.06%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -11.99%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-13 13:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -7.76%E -3.61%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -6.71%E -2.06%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -11.99%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-13 13:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -7.76%E -3.61%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -6.71%E -2.06%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -11.99%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-13 13:55
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -9.90%E -4.72%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -6.71%E -2.06%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -11.99%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 14:00
TABtouch🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -9.90%E -4.72%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -6.71%E -2.06%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -11.99%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 14:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -9.90%E -4.72%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -6.71%E -2.06%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -11.99%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 14:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.07%EV -10.76%E -5.17%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.56%EV -6.71%E -2.06%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.37%EV -13.41%E -4.40%K -6.54%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-13 14:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.07%EV -10.76%E -5.17%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.56%EV -6.71%E -2.06%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.37%EV -13.41%E -4.40%K -6.54%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-13 14:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -12.05%E -5.88%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -6.71%E -2.06%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -11.99%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-13 13:15
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.29%EV -3.47%E -1.54%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -8.14%E -2.54%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -3.47%E -1.02%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-13 13:30
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -3.47%E -1.54%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -8.14%E -2.54%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-13 13:30
LowVig.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.43%EV -0.466%E -0.201%K -0.353%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%EV -8.14%E -2.54%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -11.99%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 13:59
BetOnline.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.43%EV -0.466%E -0.201%K -0.353%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%EV -8.14%E -2.54%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -11.99%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 14:00
BetAnything🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.43%EV -0.466%E -0.201%K -0.353%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%EV -8.14%E -2.54%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -11.99%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 14:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -5.61%E -2.55%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -8.14%E -2.54%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 13:45
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -5.61%E -2.55%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -8.14%E -2.54%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 13:55
betano_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -5.61%E -2.55%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -8.14%E -2.54%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 14:00
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -9.90%E -4.72%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -8.14%E -2.54%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-13 13:59
PlayUp🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.05%EV -9.90%E -4.72%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -8.14%E -2.54%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.70%EV -10.57%E -3.35%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 13:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -14.20%E -7.10%K -14.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -8.14%E -2.54%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-13 14:00
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -9.90%E -4.72%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -8.14%E -2.54%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -14.83%E -4.94%K -7.41%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-13 13:50
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -9.90%E -4.72%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -8.14%E -2.54%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -14.83%E -4.94%K -7.41%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-13 13:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -9.90%E -4.72%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -8.14%E -2.54%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -14.83%E -4.94%K -7.41%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-13 13:50
NetBet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.86%EV -9.90%E -4.72%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.57%EV -9.58%E -3.04%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.57%EV -10.57%E -3.35%K -4.91%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-13 13:45
SportsBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.63%EV -12.05%E -5.88%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.74%EV -9.58%E -3.04%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.62%EV -16.24%E -5.51%K -8.33%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-13 13:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -3.47%E -1.54%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -11.01%E -3.55%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 13:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -3.47%E -1.54%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -11.01%E -3.55%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 13:30
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -5.61%E -2.55%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -11.01%E -3.55%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -4.89%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-13 13:20
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -7.76%E -3.61%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.01%E -3.55%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -9.15%E -2.86%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-13 14:00
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -9.90%E -4.72%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -11.01%E -3.55%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -7.73%E -2.38%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 14:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -12.05%E -5.88%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -11.01%E -3.55%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -7.73%E -2.38%K -3.43%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-13 13:45
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.19%EV -9.90%E -4.72%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.74%EV -12.45%E -4.08%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -4.89%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-13 13:46
Betclic (FR)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.88%EV -10.76%E -5.17%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.24%EV -12.45%E -4.08%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.87%EV -9.15%E -2.86%K -4.16%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-13 13:49
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.91%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.46%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%0.8%2026-09-13 13:55
Smarkets◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.60%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.99%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.41%1.5%2026-09-13 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.56%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.61%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83%1.6%2026-09-13 14:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 43.46%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.04%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.50%2.7%2026-09-13 14:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 43.54%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.98%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.47%4.4%2026-09-13 14:00
Kalshi◎2.08I 48.08%NM 44.51%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.83%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.66%8.0%2026-09-13 14:00