Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Club Brugge v Sint Truiden

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 18:45 UTC

Final: Club Brugge 2–0 Sint Truiden

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Club Brugge (Local)

Prediction 67.25%1.49fair odd
EV -3.16%
Edge -2.20%
Kelly -7.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.05%67.23%67.35%70.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.381.381.4476.92%72.68%72.46%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sint Truiden (Visit)

Prediction 14.51%6.89fair odd
EV +16.08%
Edge +2.01%
Kelly +2.30%
Growth +0.369%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.65%14.46%14.42%16.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.626.508.0018.18%15.10%15.38%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.24%5.48fair odd
EV -1.12%
Edge -0.207%
Kelly -0.254%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.64%18.30%18.23%20.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.975.005.4225.00%20.13%20.00%18.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Club Brugge (Local): 67.25%; Sint Truiden (Visit): 14.51%; Draw: 18.24%. For Sint Truiden (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.89. 20 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.08%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 68.68%EV -4.51%E -3.18%K -10.74%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.19%EV +16.08%E +2.01%K +2.30%G +0.369%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.12%EV -6.96%E -1.37%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.5%2026-05-09 18:39
ATG (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 68.68%EV -4.51%E -3.18%K -10.74%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.19%EV +16.08%E +2.01%K +2.30%G +0.369%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.12%EV -6.96%E -1.37%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.5%2026-05-09 18:39
BetRivers🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.08%EV -10.56%E -7.94%K -32.00%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV +16.08%E +2.01%K +2.30%G +0.369%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27%EV -6.96%E -1.37%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 18:32
Unibet (NL)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.20%E -5.22%K -18.94%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV +8.82%E +1.18%K +1.36%G +0.120%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV -8.79%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-09 18:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.20%E -5.22%K -18.94%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV +8.82%E +1.18%K +1.36%G +0.120%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV -8.79%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-09 18:39
Unibet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.55%EV -8.54%E -6.28%K -23.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV +8.82%E +1.18%K +1.36%G +0.120%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -10.61%E -2.17%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 18:39
Grosvenor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.55%EV -8.54%E -6.28%K -23.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV +8.82%E +1.18%K +1.36%G +0.120%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -10.61%E -2.17%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 18:39
TABtouch🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.55%EV -8.54%E -6.28%K -23.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV +8.82%E +1.18%K +1.36%G +0.120%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -10.61%E -2.17%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 18:39
LeoVegas🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.55%EV -8.54%E -6.28%K -23.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV +8.82%E +1.18%K +1.36%G +0.120%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -10.61%E -2.17%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 18:39
Casumo🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.55%EV -8.54%E -6.28%K -23.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV +8.82%E +1.18%K +1.36%G +0.120%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -10.61%E -2.17%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 18:40
betPARX🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.55%EV -8.54%E -6.28%K -23.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV +8.82%E +1.18%K +1.36%G +0.120%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -10.61%E -2.17%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 18:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.59%EV -9.89%E -7.38%K -29.08%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV +8.82%E +1.18%K +1.36%G +0.120%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.15%EV -12.43%E -2.59%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-09 18:39
PMU (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.76%EV -10.56%E -7.94%K -32.00%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV +8.82%E +1.18%K +1.36%G +0.120%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.05%EV -12.43%E -2.59%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-09 18:40
Betsson🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.00%EV -7.20%E -5.22%K -18.94%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.85%EV +5.92%E +0.811%K +0.940%G +0.056%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.15%EV -10.61%E -2.17%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-09 18:39
NordicBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.58%EV -6.53%E -4.70%K -16.73%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.05%EV +4.47%E +0.621%K +0.721%G +0.032%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.37%EV -11.52%E -2.38%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-09 18:29
Betr (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.88%EV -7.20%E -5.22%K -18.94%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV +1.57%E +0.224%K +0.262%G +0.004%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -8.79%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 18:05
Coolbet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.88%EV -7.20%E -5.22%K -18.94%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV +1.57%E +0.224%K +0.262%G +0.004%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -8.79%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 18:04
theScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.88%EV -7.20%E -5.22%K -18.94%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV +1.57%E +0.224%K +0.262%G +0.004%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -8.79%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 18:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.19%EV -11.23%E -8.51%K -35.10%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.86%EV +1.57%E +0.224%K +0.262%G +0.004%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.95%EV -13.35%E -2.81%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-09 18:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.19%EV -11.23%E -8.51%K -35.10%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.86%EV +1.57%E +0.224%K +0.262%G +0.004%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.95%EV -13.35%E -2.81%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-09 18:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.71%EV -7.87%E -5.75%K -21.27%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.74%EV -2.06%E -0.305%K -0.358%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -8.79%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-09 18:05
Pinnacle🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.85%EV -4.51%E -3.18%K -10.74%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 14.38%EV -2.78%E -0.415%K -0.488%G +0.000%5.42I 18.45%NM 17.78%EV -1.12%E -0.207%K -0.254%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-09 18:39
1xBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 67.37%EV -3.16%E -2.20%K -7.19%G +0.000%6.69I 14.95%NM 14.50%EV -2.93%E -0.438%K -0.515%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 18.13%EV -2.40%E -0.449%K -0.552%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-09 18:39
Marathon Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.58%EV -7.20%E -5.22%K -18.94%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.13%EV -4.23%E -0.642%K -0.756%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.29%EV -6.96%E -1.37%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-09 18:39
DraftKings🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.47%EV -5.85%E -4.18%K -14.63%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -5.69%E -0.875%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -4.23%E -0.805%K -0.994%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-09 17:54
Fanatics🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.79%EV -7.20%E -5.22%K -18.94%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.39%EV -5.69%E -0.875%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -4.23%E -0.805%K -0.994%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 18:34
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.11%EV -8.54%E -6.28%K -23.73%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -5.69%E -0.875%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.64%EV -4.23%E -0.805%K -0.994%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 18:36
betfred_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.51%EV -8.54%E -6.28%K -23.73%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -5.69%E -0.875%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -8.79%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-09 18:04
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 67.86%EV -12.58%E -9.68%K -41.93%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.57%EV -5.69%E -0.875%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.57%EV -13.35%E -2.81%K -3.56%G +0.000%13.4%2026-05-09 18:25
Suprabets🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.36%EV -6.53%E -4.70%K -16.73%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -7.14%E -1.12%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.01%EV -5.14%E -0.988%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-09 18:31
BetUS🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.52%EV -7.20%E -5.22%K -18.94%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV -7.14%E -1.12%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV -5.14%E -0.988%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 18:29
LowVig.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.52%EV -7.20%E -5.22%K -18.94%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV -7.14%E -1.12%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV -5.14%E -0.988%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 17:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.52%EV -7.20%E -5.22%K -18.94%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV -7.14%E -1.12%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV -5.14%E -0.988%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 17:50
BetMGM🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.61%EV -3.84%E -2.68%K -8.92%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.24%EV -9.31%E -1.49%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.14%EV -4.23%E -0.805%K -0.994%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-09 18:15
PlayUp🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.49%EV -8.54%E -6.28%K -23.73%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.47%EV -9.31%E -1.49%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.04%EV -13.35%E -2.81%K -3.56%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-09 18:39
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -3.16%E -2.20%K -7.19%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -12.94%E -2.16%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.11%EV -4.23%E -0.805%K -0.994%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 17:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.45%EV -3.16%E -2.20%K -7.19%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -12.94%E -2.16%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -8.79%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-09 18:14
Unibet (UK)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -4.51%E -3.18%K -10.74%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -12.94%E -2.16%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.95%EV -4.23%E -0.805%K -0.994%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-09 18:14
Bovada🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -5.85%E -4.18%K -14.63%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -12.94%E -2.16%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -8.79%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-09 18:39
BetAnything🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -5.85%E -4.18%K -14.63%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -12.94%E -2.16%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -8.79%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-09 18:40
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.57%EV -5.85%E -4.18%K -14.63%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -12.94%E -2.16%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -12.43%E -2.59%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-09 18:04
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.57%EV -5.85%E -4.18%K -14.63%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -12.94%E -2.16%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -12.43%E -2.59%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-09 18:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.57%EV -5.85%E -4.18%K -14.63%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -12.94%E -2.16%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -12.43%E -2.59%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-09 18:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.57%EV -5.85%E -4.18%K -14.63%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -12.94%E -2.16%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -12.43%E -2.59%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-09 18:04
Unibet (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.73%EV -8.54%E -6.28%K -23.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.12%EV -12.94%E -2.16%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -8.79%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-09 18:14
NetBet (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.72%EV -10.56%E -7.94%K -32.00%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.79%EV -12.94%E -2.16%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.49%EV -12.43%E -2.59%K -3.27%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-09 18:39
Sky Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.19%EV -10.56%E -7.94%K -32.00%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.67%EV -12.94%E -2.16%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.14%EV -16.08%E -3.50%K -4.47%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-09 18:24
SportsBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 66.70%EV -12.58%E -9.68%K -41.93%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.45%EV -12.94%E -2.16%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.85%EV -16.08%E -3.50%K -4.47%G +0.000%15.3%2026-05-09 18:24
Betclic (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.11%EV -7.20%E -5.22%K -18.94%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.46%EV -14.39%E -2.44%K -2.94%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.43%EV -9.70%E -1.96%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-09 18:18
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.09%EV -3.16%E -2.20%K -7.19%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.16%EV -15.84%E -2.73%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.75%EV -8.79%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 18:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.92%EV -7.20%E -5.22%K -18.94%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.24%EV -18.74%E -3.35%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.84%EV -6.96%E -1.37%K -1.70%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-09 18:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.72%EV -7.20%E -5.22%K -18.94%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.49%EV -20.20%E -3.67%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.78%EV -6.96%E -1.37%K -1.70%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-09 18:10
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.21%EV -8.54%E -6.28%K -23.73%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.12%EV -20.20%E -3.67%K -4.49%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.67%EV -13.35%E -2.81%K -3.56%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-09 18:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 64.05%EV -12.58%E -9.68%K -41.93%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.14%EV -20.20%E -3.67%K -4.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 20.82%EV -27.03%E -6.76%K -9.01%G +0.000%20.1%2026-05-09 18:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.43I 69.93%NM 69.28%7.14I 14.01%NM 13.87%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.85%0.9%2026-05-09 18:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.28%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.03%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.69%0.9%2026-05-09 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.42I 70.42%NM 69.66%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.68%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.66%1.1%2026-05-09 18:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.42I 70.42%NM 69.66%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.68%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.66%1.1%2026-05-09 18:39
Matchbook1.42I 70.42%NM 69.66%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.68%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.66%1.1%2026-05-09 18:39
Smarkets1.40I 71.43%NM 69.50%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.80%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.69%2.8%2026-05-09 18:40