Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Club Brugge v Royal Antwerp

2026-09-13 11:30 UTC — Belgium First Div

Resultado del partido

42 corredores (11 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Club Brugge (Local)

Predicción 73.99%1.35momio equitativo
EV -3.81%
Ventaja -2.93%
Kelly -12.70%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
71.30%73.93%74.13%76.06%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.171.251.251.3085.47%79.98%80.00%76.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Royal Antwerp (Visitante)

Predicción 10.16%9.84momio equitativo
EV +6.70%
Ventaja +0.638%
Kelly +0.705%
Crecimiento +0.047%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 10.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
8.94%10.16%10.21%11.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
7.258.989.0010.5013.79%11.14%11.11%9.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 15.85%6.31momio equitativo
EV +0.783%
Ventaja +0.123%
Kelly +0.146%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.36

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.78%15.91%15.66%17.40%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.005.685.656.3620.00%17.60%17.70%15.72%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Club Brugge (Local): 73.99%; Royal Antwerp (Visitante): 10.16%; Empate: 15.85%. Para Royal Antwerp (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 9.84. 8 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 10.50, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +6.70%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (42 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Betr (AU)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.96%EV -8.25%E -6.65%K -34.38%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV +6.70%E +0.638%K +0.705%G +0.047%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.07%EV -0.960%E -0.154%K -0.183%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 11:55
NordicBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.46%EV -6.77%E -5.37%K -26.04%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.94%EV +6.70%E +0.638%K +0.705%G +0.047%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.61%EV -10.47%E -1.85%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 12:48
Betsson🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.46%EV -6.77%E -5.37%K -26.04%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.94%EV +6.70%E +0.638%K +0.705%G +0.047%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.61%EV -10.47%E -1.85%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 12:50
1xBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.54%EV -6.77%E -5.37%K -26.04%G +0.000%10.20I 9.80%NM 9.33%EV +3.65%E +0.358%K +0.397%G +0.014%6.29I 15.90%NM 15.13%EV -0.326%E -0.052%K -0.062%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-06 12:35
Coolbet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -8.25%E -6.65%K -34.38%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV +1.62%E +0.162%K +0.180%G +0.003%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -4.92%E -0.820%K -0.984%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 11:49
Paddy Power🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -12.69%E -10.75%K -70.50%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV +1.62%E +0.162%K +0.180%G +0.003%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -4.92%E -0.820%K -0.984%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-06 11:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -12.69%E -10.75%K -70.50%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV +1.62%E +0.162%K +0.180%G +0.003%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -4.92%E -0.820%K -0.984%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-06 12:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.18%EV -8.25%E -6.65%K -34.38%G +0.000%9.90I 10.10%NM 9.42%EV +0.601%E +0.061%K +0.068%G +0.000%6.05I 16.53%NM 15.41%EV -4.13%E -0.683%K -0.818%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 12:15
Grosvenor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.48%EV -3.81%E -2.93%K -12.70%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.05%EV -3.46%E -0.365%K -0.407%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.47%EV -8.09%E -1.40%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-06 14:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.48%EV -3.81%E -2.93%K -12.70%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.05%EV -3.46%E -0.365%K -0.407%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.47%EV -8.09%E -1.40%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-06 14:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.48%EV -3.81%E -2.93%K -12.70%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.05%EV -3.46%E -0.365%K -0.407%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.47%EV -8.09%E -1.40%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-06 14:00
betfred_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.09%EV -9.73%E -7.98%K -44.23%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -3.46%E -0.365%K -0.407%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -4.92%E -0.820%K -0.984%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-06 11:49
SportsBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 75.38%EV -13.43%E -11.48%K -79.00%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.28%EV -3.46%E -0.365%K -0.407%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.34%EV -8.88%E -1.54%K -1.87%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-06 11:55
Pinnacle🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.19%EV -7.51%E -6.01%K -30.04%G +0.000%9.37I 10.67%NM 10.03%EV -4.78%E -0.511%K -0.572%G +0.000%6.36I 15.72%NM 14.78%EV +0.783%E +0.123%K +0.146%G +0.001%6.4%2026-09-06 13:50
BetMGM🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.09%EV -4.55%E -3.53%K -15.69%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.62%EV -8.54%E -0.949%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.29%EV -0.960%E -0.154%K -0.183%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-06 11:55
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -5.29%E -4.13%K -18.89%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV -8.54%E -0.949%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.74%EV -4.92%E -0.820%K -0.984%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 11:55
Fanatics🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -6.03%E -4.75%K -22.33%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV -8.54%E -0.949%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -4.92%E -0.820%K -0.984%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-06 11:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.95%EV -5.29%E -4.13%K -18.89%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV -8.54%E -0.949%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -11.26%E -2.01%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 12:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.95%EV -5.29%E -4.13%K -18.89%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV -8.54%E -0.949%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -11.26%E -2.01%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 12:50
Casumo🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.95%EV -5.29%E -4.13%K -18.89%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV -8.54%E -0.949%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -11.26%E -2.01%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 12:50
betPARX🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.95%EV -5.29%E -4.13%K -18.89%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV -8.54%E -0.949%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -11.26%E -2.01%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 12:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.42%EV -6.03%E -4.75%K -22.33%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -8.54%E -0.949%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.22%EV -8.88%E -1.54%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 12:49
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -7.51%E -6.01%K -30.04%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -8.54%E -0.949%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -12.85%E -2.34%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-06 12:45
William Hill🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -7.51%E -6.01%K -30.04%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -8.54%E -0.949%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -12.85%E -2.34%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-06 12:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -7.51%E -6.01%K -30.04%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -8.54%E -0.949%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -12.85%E -2.34%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-06 12:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -7.51%E -6.01%K -30.04%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -8.54%E -0.949%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -12.85%E -2.34%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-06 12:50
Suprabets🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.05%EV -7.51%E -6.01%K -30.04%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.52%EV -10.58%E -1.20%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.43%EV -4.92%E -0.820%K -0.984%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-06 11:48
NetBet (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.40%EV -11.21%E -9.34%K -56.05%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.20%EV -11.08%E -1.27%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.39%EV -8.09%E -1.40%K -1.69%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-06 14:58
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.32%EV -5.29%E -4.13%K -18.89%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.04%EV -13.63%E -1.60%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -4.92%E -0.820%K -0.984%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 11:55
BetRivers🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.99%EV -6.03%E -4.75%K -22.33%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -13.63%E -1.60%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.25%EV -16.01%E -3.02%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-06 12:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.15%EV -6.77%E -5.37%K -26.04%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -13.63%E -1.60%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.15%EV -16.01%E -3.02%K -3.72%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 12:50
Unibet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.15%EV -6.77%E -5.37%K -26.04%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -13.63%E -1.60%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.15%EV -16.01%E -3.02%K -3.72%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 12:50
TABtouch🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.15%EV -6.77%E -5.37%K -26.04%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -13.63%E -1.60%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.15%EV -16.01%E -3.02%K -3.72%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 12:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.68%EV -5.29%E -4.13%K -18.89%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.28%EV -16.17%E -1.96%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.04%EV -8.09%E -1.40%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-06 11:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.72%EV -7.51%E -6.01%K -30.04%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.21%EV -18.71%E -2.34%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.08%EV -16.81%E -3.20%K -3.95%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-06 13:59
LiveScore Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 71.76%EV -8.25%E -6.65%K -34.38%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.12%EV -18.71%E -2.34%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.11%EV -17.60%E -3.38%K -4.19%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-06 12:14
Virgin Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 71.76%EV -8.25%E -6.65%K -34.38%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.12%EV -18.71%E -2.34%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.11%EV -17.60%E -3.38%K -4.19%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-06 12:15
Sky Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 72.54%EV -11.21%E -9.34%K -56.05%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.88%EV -18.71%E -2.34%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.58%EV -16.81%E -3.20%K -3.95%G +0.000%14.9%2026-09-06 11:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.18%EV -8.25%E -6.65%K -34.38%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.55%EV -21.25%E -2.74%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.27%EV -12.85%E -2.34%K -2.85%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-06 12:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 71.30%EV -9.73%E -7.98%K -44.23%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 11.30%EV -21.75%E -2.83%K -3.25%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.40%EV -20.77%E -4.15%K -5.19%G +0.000%15.0%2026-09-06 12:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.02%EV -9.73%E -7.98%K -44.23%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.71%EV -23.79%E -3.17%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.27%EV -14.43%E -2.67%K -3.28%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-06 12:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 71.45%EV -10.47%E -8.65%K -49.86%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 11.92%EV -26.33%E -3.63%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.63%EV -17.60%E -3.38%K -4.19%G +0.000%15.7%2026-09-06 12:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets1.22I 81.97%NM 72.09%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.99%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.91%13.7%2026-09-06 12:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%177.8%2026-09-06 12:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%177.8%2026-09-06 12:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-09-06 12:05