Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Charleroi v Union Saint-Gilloise

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 14:00 UTC

Final: Charleroi 2–3 Union Saint-Gilloise

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Charleroi (Local)

Prediction 28.94%3.45fair odd
EV -1.59%
Edge -0.467%
Kelly -0.662%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.70%28.97%28.95%30.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.203.233.4033.90%31.21%31.01%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Union Saint-Gilloise (Visit)

Prediction 43.66%2.29fair odd
EV -3.95%
Edge -1.80%
Kelly -3.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.48%43.63%43.67%45.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.992.122.112.2050.25%47.28%47.39%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.40%3.65fair odd
EV +0.005%
Edge +0.001%
Kelly +0.002%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.38%27.40%27.38%28.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.353.353.6531.75%29.81%29.85%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Charleroi (Local): 28.94%; Union Saint-Gilloise (Visit): 43.66%; Draw: 27.40%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.6498. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.6500, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.005%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.29I 30.40%NM 29.26%EV -4.77%E -1.45%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.36%EV -5.26%E -2.43%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.38%EV +0.005%E +0.001%K +0.002%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-04 14:15
DraftKings🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.18%EV -5.93%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.11%EV -6.14%E -2.85%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -2.73%E -0.770%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 14:00
1xBet🎯3.33I 30.03%NM 28.67%EV -3.61%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.20%EV -5.70%E -2.64%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.12%EV -3.56%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-04 10:39
Betr (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -1.59%E -0.467%K -0.662%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -4.10%E -1.17%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 10:35
BetMGM🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -5.93%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV -6.14%E -2.85%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -4.10%E -1.17%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-04 07:45
Coral🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -5.93%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV -6.14%E -2.85%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -4.10%E -1.17%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-04 07:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -7.38%E -2.31%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.14%E -2.85%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -4.10%E -1.17%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-02 20:00
Fanatics🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -7.38%E -2.31%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.14%E -2.85%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -4.10%E -1.17%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-02 20:00
BetUS🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.93%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -4.10%E -1.17%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-04 10:39
Grosvenor🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.32%EV -1.59%E -0.467%K -0.662%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.77%EV -3.95%E -1.80%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.91%EV -5.47%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-04 11:15
Svenska Spel🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.32%EV -1.59%E -0.467%K -0.662%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.77%EV -3.95%E -1.80%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.91%EV -5.47%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-04 11:15
ATG (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.32%EV -1.59%E -0.467%K -0.662%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.77%EV -3.95%E -1.80%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.91%EV -5.47%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-04 11:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -7.38%E -2.31%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -6.14%E -2.85%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -5.47%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-02 20:00
Suprabets🎯3.17I 31.55%NM 29.23%EV -8.25%E -2.60%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 43.91%EV -7.88%E -3.74%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -5.47%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 14:13
Marathon Bet🎯3.26I 30.67%NM 28.63%EV -5.64%E -1.73%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 44.24%EV -7.88%E -3.74%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.13%EV -5.75%E -1.67%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 10:34
LowVig.ag🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -5.93%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.71%EV -6.57%E -3.07%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 14:14
BetOnline.ag🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -5.93%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.71%EV -6.57%E -3.07%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 14:15
BetAnything🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -5.93%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.71%EV -6.57%E -3.07%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 14:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -4.48%E -1.36%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 10:34
Coolbet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -4.48%E -1.36%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 10:35
theScore Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -4.48%E -1.36%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 10:35
betfred_uk🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -5.93%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -10.50%E -5.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-04 10:35
BoyleSports🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -13.17%E -4.39%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-03 06:59
Unibet (NL)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -5.93%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.14%E -2.85%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 11:15
Casumo🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -5.93%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.14%E -2.85%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 11:14
Unibet (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -5.93%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.14%E -2.85%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 11:15
betPARX🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -5.93%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.14%E -2.85%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 11:15
NordicBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -5.93%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.14%E -2.85%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 10:04
Betsson🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -5.93%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.14%E -2.85%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 10:05
Unibet (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -7.38%E -2.31%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -3.95%E -1.80%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -9.58%E -2.90%K -4.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-04 13:45
Tipico (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -4.48%E -1.36%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.14%E -2.85%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -9.58%E -2.90%K -4.17%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 14:00
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -10.27%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -6.14%E -2.85%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.58%E -2.90%K -4.17%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-02 20:00
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -10.27%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -6.14%E -2.85%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.58%E -2.90%K -4.17%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-02 20:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -10.27%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -6.14%E -2.85%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.58%E -2.90%K -4.17%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-02 20:00
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -10.27%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -6.14%E -2.85%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.58%E -2.90%K -4.17%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-02 20:00
betano_uk🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -7.38%E -2.31%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -9.58%E -2.90%K -4.17%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-04 10:09
Bet Victor🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -7.38%E -2.31%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -9.58%E -2.90%K -4.17%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-04 10:13
Betclic (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -10.27%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -9.58%E -2.90%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-04 13:49
PlayUp🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.16%EV -10.27%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.45%EV -9.19%E -4.42%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.39%EV -9.58%E -2.90%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-04 10:04
Paddy Power🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.70%EV -5.93%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.02%EV -12.69%E -6.34%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.28%EV -9.58%E -2.90%K -4.17%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-04 10:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.70%EV -5.93%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.02%EV -12.69%E -6.34%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.28%EV -9.58%E -2.90%K -4.17%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-04 14:05
NetBet (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -10.27%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -10.50%E -5.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -9.58%E -2.90%K -4.17%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-04 10:40
SportsBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.27%EV -8.82%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 44.75%EV -13.12%E -6.59%K -13.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.98%EV -9.58%E -2.90%K -4.17%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-04 10:35
BetRivers🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -8.82%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -10.95%E -3.37%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-04 11:15
Winamax (DE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -11.72%E -3.84%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.83%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.68%EV -10.95%E -3.37%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-04 13:50
Sky Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.54%EV -10.27%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.24%EV -12.69%E -6.34%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.22%EV -10.95%E -3.37%K -4.87%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-04 10:35
Unibet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.70%EV -8.82%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.05%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -12.32%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-04 11:14
TABtouch🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.70%EV -8.82%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.05%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -12.32%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-04 11:14
PMU (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.70%EV -8.82%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.05%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -12.32%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-04 11:15
Unibet (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -10.27%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.85%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -12.32%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-04 14:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -10.27%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.20%EV -9.63%E -4.65%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -12.32%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-04 11:14
Winamax (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.75%EV -14.61%E -4.95%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.82%EV -10.50%E -5.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.43%EV -12.32%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-04 13:45
LiveScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -10.27%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.25%EV -10.50%E -5.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.15%EV -13.69%E -4.35%K -6.37%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-04 11:15
Virgin Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -10.27%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.25%EV -10.50%E -5.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.15%EV -13.69%E -4.35%K -6.37%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-04 11:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.36%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.68%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.96%2.2%2026-09-04 14:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.36%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.68%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.96%2.2%2026-09-04 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.25%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.51%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.25%2.6%2026-09-04 14:30
Kalshi3.33I 30.03%NM 29.13%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.70%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.17%3.1%2026-09-04 13:10
Smarkets3.40I 29.41%NM 28.32%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.77%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.91%3.9%2026-09-04 14:35
Matchbook3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.96%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.37%5.3%2026-09-04 14:05