L’École des cotes

Anderlecht v KV Mechelen

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-17 11:30 UTC

Score final : Anderlecht 2–2 KV Mechelen

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

55 opérateurs (18 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Anderlecht (Local)

Prévision 50.66%1.97cote équitable
EV -4.25%
Avantage -2.25%
Kelly -4.78%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.89

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
49.61%50.59%50.72%51.44%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.671.821.831.8959.88%54.81%54.64%52.91%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

KV Mechelen (Visiteur)

Prévision 24.33%4.11cote équitable
EV -0.968%
Avantage -0.238%
Kelly -0.315%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.07

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.66%24.39%24.32%25.85%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.503.793.804.0728.57%26.37%26.32%24.57%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 25.01%4.00cote équitable
EV -2.47%
Avantage -0.633%
Kelly -0.851%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.90

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.31%25.02%24.96%26.72%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.103.683.703.9032.26%27.20%27.03%25.64%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (55 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Svenska Spel1.89I 52.91%NM 51.10%EV -4.25%E -2.25%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.14%EV -2.67%E -0.668%K -0.890%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.76%EV -2.47%E -0.633%K -0.851%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-16 20:55
ATG (SE)1.89I 52.91%NM 51.10%EV -4.25%E -2.25%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.14%EV -2.67%E -0.668%K -0.890%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.76%EV -2.47%E -0.633%K -0.851%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-16 20:55
Pinnacle1.88I 53.19%NM 51.44%EV -4.76%E -2.53%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.76%EV -0.968%E -0.238%K -0.315%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.80%EV -2.47%E -0.633%K -0.851%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-17 06:30
NordicBet1.88I 53.19%NM 50.07%EV -4.76%E -2.53%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.10%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -8.72%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-11 14:14
Betsson1.88I 53.19%NM 50.07%EV -4.76%E -2.53%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.10%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -8.72%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-11 14:14
Unibet (UK)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.93%EV -4.76%E -2.53%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -8.75%E -2.33%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.22%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-12 11:34
Fanatics1.87I 53.48%NM 51.03%EV -5.27%E -2.82%K -6.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.86%EV -2.67%E -0.668%K -0.890%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.11%EV -4.97%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-17 06:20
BetMGM1.87I 53.48%NM 50.72%EV -5.27%E -2.82%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.32%EV -5.10%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.96%EV -4.97%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-15 09:49
DraftKings1.87I 53.48%NM 50.72%EV -5.27%E -2.82%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.32%EV -5.10%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.96%EV -4.97%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-16 11:30
1xBet1.86I 53.76%NM 51.30%EV -5.77%E -3.10%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.01I 24.94%NM 23.79%EV -2.43%E -0.605%K -0.807%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.91%EV -4.22%E -1.10%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-17 06:35
Coral1.85I 54.05%NM 50.99%EV -6.28%E -3.39%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -5.10%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -4.97%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-15 09:48
Ladbrokes (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -6.28%E -3.39%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -7.54%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -6.22%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-15 09:49
Ladbrokes (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -6.28%E -3.39%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -7.54%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -6.22%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-15 09:50
LowVig.ag1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -6.28%E -3.39%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -7.54%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -6.22%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 07:30
BetOnline.ag1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -6.28%E -3.39%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -7.54%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -6.22%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 07:30
Betclic (FR)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.10%EV -6.28%E -3.39%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 24.85%EV -9.24%E -2.48%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -7.47%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 23:34
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -6.28%E -3.39%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -7.54%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -9.97%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-11 14:15
William Hill1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -6.28%E -3.39%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -7.54%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -9.97%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-11 14:14
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -6.28%E -3.39%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -7.54%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -9.97%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-11 21:44
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -6.28%E -3.39%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -7.54%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -9.97%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-11 21:44
Winamax (DE)1.84I 54.35%NM 49.96%EV -6.79%E -3.69%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -12.40%E -3.45%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -6.22%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-13 07:15
theScore Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.26%EV -7.29%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -5.10%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -4.97%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-14 20:09
Suprabets1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -7.29%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -5.10%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -6.22%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 06:17
Bovada1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -7.29%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -5.10%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -6.22%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 11:35
Everygame1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -7.29%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -5.10%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -6.22%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 06:19
Bet Victor1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -7.29%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -5.10%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -6.22%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 08:09
BetUS1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -7.29%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -5.10%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -6.22%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 11:34
BetAnything1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -7.29%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -5.10%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -6.22%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 11:35
Coolbet1.83I 54.64%NM 50.93%EV -7.29%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.21%EV -6.32%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -6.22%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-11 23:04
PointsBet (AU)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.77%EV -7.29%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -7.54%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -6.22%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-12 11:44
Unibet (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.76%EV -7.29%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.13%EV -6.32%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -7.47%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 20:55
Casumo1.83I 54.64%NM 50.76%EV -7.29%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.13%EV -6.32%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -7.47%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 20:55
Unibet (NL)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.76%EV -7.29%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.13%EV -6.32%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -7.47%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 20:55
betPARX1.83I 54.64%NM 50.76%EV -7.29%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.13%EV -6.32%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -7.47%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 20:55
Betr (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.40%EV -7.80%E -4.29%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -5.10%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -4.97%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 23:04
Marathon Bet1.82I 54.95%NM 51.26%EV -7.80%E -4.29%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.80%EV -4.62%E -1.18%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.94%EV -6.47%E -1.73%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 06:40
LeoVegas1.82I 54.95%NM 50.40%EV -7.80%E -4.29%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.46%EV -8.75%E -2.33%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.13%EV -8.72%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-16 20:55
BetRivers1.82I 54.95%NM 50.06%EV -7.80%E -4.29%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.63%EV -9.97%E -2.69%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -9.97%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-17 07:25
PlayUp1.82I 54.95%NM 49.72%EV -7.80%E -4.29%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.79%EV -11.19%E -3.07%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.49%EV -11.22%E -3.16%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-12 11:39
Winamax (FR)1.82I 54.95%NM 49.70%EV -7.80%E -4.29%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -14.84%E -4.24%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.45%EV -7.47%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-13 07:15
Unibet1.81I 55.25%NM 50.02%EV -8.31%E -4.59%K -10.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.47%EV -9.97%E -2.69%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.51%EV -11.22%E -3.16%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-17 07:25
TABtouch1.81I 55.25%NM 50.02%EV -8.31%E -4.59%K -10.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.47%EV -9.97%E -2.69%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.51%EV -11.22%E -3.16%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-17 07:24
Grosvenor1.81I 55.25%NM 50.02%EV -8.31%E -4.59%K -10.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.47%EV -9.97%E -2.69%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.51%EV -11.22%E -3.16%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-17 07:24
betfred_uk1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -8.81%E -4.90%K -11.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -8.75%E -2.33%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -6.22%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-11 14:14
BoyleSports1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -8.81%E -4.90%K -11.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -12.40%E -3.45%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -9.97%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-17 06:20
Unibet (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 49.98%EV -8.81%E -4.90%K -11.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -14.84%E -4.24%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -7.47%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-16 23:35
LeoVegas (SE)1.79I 55.87%NM 50.13%EV -9.32%E -5.21%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.59%EV -11.19%E -3.07%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.28%EV -11.22%E -3.16%K -4.40%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-17 07:25
PMU (FR)1.77I 56.50%NM 50.07%EV -10.33%E -5.84%K -13.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.62%EV -12.40%E -3.45%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.32%EV -12.47%E -3.56%K -4.99%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-17 07:25
Paddy Power1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37%EV -11.35%E -6.48%K -15.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -7.54%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -9.97%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-11 23:03
NetBet (FR)1.75I 57.14%NM 51.03%EV -11.35%E -6.48%K -15.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.81%EV -8.75%E -2.33%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.16%EV -11.22%E -3.16%K -4.40%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-17 06:20
Sky Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 50.35%EV -11.35%E -6.48%K -15.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.48%EV -12.40%E -3.45%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.17%EV -12.47%E -3.56%K -4.99%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-14 13:25
LiveScore Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 50.17%EV -11.35%E -6.48%K -15.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.39%EV -12.40%E -3.45%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.45%EV -13.72%E -3.98%K -5.60%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-16 20:55
Virgin Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 50.17%EV -11.35%E -6.48%K -15.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.39%EV -12.40%E -3.45%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.45%EV -13.72%E -3.98%K -5.60%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-16 20:55
SportsBet1.72I 58.14%NM 51.12%EV -12.87%E -7.48%K -17.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.76%EV -9.97%E -2.69%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.12%EV -12.47%E -3.56%K -4.99%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-11 23:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 49.61%EV -15.40%E -9.22%K -22.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.67%EV -14.84%E -4.24%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.72%EV -22.47%E -7.25%K -10.70%G +0.000%20.7%2026-05-16 11:30
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.92I 52.08%NM 51.58%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.03%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39%1.0%2026-05-17 08:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.92I 52.08%NM 51.58%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.03%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39%1.0%2026-05-17 08:11
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.92I 52.08%NM 51.58%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.03%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39%1.0%2026-05-17 08:11
Kalshi1.92I 52.08%NM 51.53%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.73%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74%1.1%2026-05-17 06:15
Matchbook1.92I 52.08%NM 51.46%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.53%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.01%1.2%2026-05-17 08:05
Smarkets1.91I 52.36%NM 51.14%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.82%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.04%2.4%2026-05-17 07:30