La escuela de los momios

Anderlecht v KV Mechelen

Inicio: 2026-05-17 11:30 UTC

Final: Anderlecht 2–2 KV Mechelen

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Anderlecht (Local)

Predicción 50.66%1.97momio equitativo
EV -4.25%
Ventaja -2.25%
Kelly -4.78%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.89

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
49.61%50.59%50.72%51.44%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.671.821.831.8959.88%54.81%54.64%52.91%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

KV Mechelen (Visitante)

Predicción 24.33%4.11momio equitativo
EV -0.968%
Ventaja -0.238%
Kelly -0.315%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.07

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.66%24.39%24.32%25.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.503.793.804.0728.57%26.37%26.32%24.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 25.01%4.00momio equitativo
EV -2.47%
Ventaja -0.633%
Kelly -0.851%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.31%25.02%24.96%26.72%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.683.703.9032.26%27.20%27.03%25.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Svenska Spel1.89I 52.91%NM 51.10%EV -4.25%E -2.25%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.14%EV -2.67%E -0.668%K -0.890%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.76%EV -2.47%E -0.633%K -0.851%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-16 20:55
ATG (SE)1.89I 52.91%NM 51.10%EV -4.25%E -2.25%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.14%EV -2.67%E -0.668%K -0.890%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.76%EV -2.47%E -0.633%K -0.851%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-16 20:55
Pinnacle1.88I 53.19%NM 51.44%EV -4.76%E -2.53%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.76%EV -0.968%E -0.238%K -0.315%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.80%EV -2.47%E -0.633%K -0.851%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-17 06:30
NordicBet1.88I 53.19%NM 50.07%EV -4.76%E -2.53%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.10%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -8.72%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-11 14:14
Betsson1.88I 53.19%NM 50.07%EV -4.76%E -2.53%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.10%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -8.72%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-11 14:14
Unibet (UK)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.93%EV -4.76%E -2.53%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -8.75%E -2.33%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.22%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-12 11:34
Fanatics1.87I 53.48%NM 51.03%EV -5.27%E -2.82%K -6.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.86%EV -2.67%E -0.668%K -0.890%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.11%EV -4.97%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-17 06:20
BetMGM1.87I 53.48%NM 50.72%EV -5.27%E -2.82%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.32%EV -5.10%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.96%EV -4.97%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-15 09:49
DraftKings1.87I 53.48%NM 50.72%EV -5.27%E -2.82%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.32%EV -5.10%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.96%EV -4.97%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-16 11:30
1xBet1.86I 53.76%NM 51.30%EV -5.77%E -3.10%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.01I 24.94%NM 23.79%EV -2.43%E -0.605%K -0.807%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.91%EV -4.22%E -1.10%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-17 06:35
Coral1.85I 54.05%NM 50.99%EV -6.28%E -3.39%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -5.10%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -4.97%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-15 09:48
Ladbrokes (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -6.28%E -3.39%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -7.54%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -6.22%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-15 09:49
Ladbrokes (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -6.28%E -3.39%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -7.54%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -6.22%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-15 09:50
LowVig.ag1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -6.28%E -3.39%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -7.54%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -6.22%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 07:30
BetOnline.ag1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -6.28%E -3.39%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -7.54%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -6.22%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 07:30
Betclic (FR)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.10%EV -6.28%E -3.39%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 24.85%EV -9.24%E -2.48%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -7.47%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 23:34
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -6.28%E -3.39%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -7.54%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -9.97%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-11 14:15
William Hill1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -6.28%E -3.39%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -7.54%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -9.97%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-11 14:14
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -6.28%E -3.39%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -7.54%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -9.97%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-11 21:44
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -6.28%E -3.39%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -7.54%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -9.97%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-11 21:44
Winamax (DE)1.84I 54.35%NM 49.96%EV -6.79%E -3.69%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -12.40%E -3.45%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -6.22%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-13 07:15
theScore Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.26%EV -7.29%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -5.10%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -4.97%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-14 20:09
Suprabets1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -7.29%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -5.10%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -6.22%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 06:17
Bovada1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -7.29%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -5.10%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -6.22%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 11:35
Everygame1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -7.29%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -5.10%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -6.22%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 06:19
Bet Victor1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -7.29%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -5.10%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -6.22%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 08:09
BetUS1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -7.29%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -5.10%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -6.22%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 11:34
BetAnything1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -7.29%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -5.10%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -6.22%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 11:35
Coolbet1.83I 54.64%NM 50.93%EV -7.29%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.21%EV -6.32%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -6.22%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-11 23:04
PointsBet (AU)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.77%EV -7.29%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -7.54%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -6.22%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-12 11:44
Unibet (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.76%EV -7.29%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.13%EV -6.32%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -7.47%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 20:55
Casumo1.83I 54.64%NM 50.76%EV -7.29%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.13%EV -6.32%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -7.47%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 20:55
Unibet (NL)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.76%EV -7.29%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.13%EV -6.32%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -7.47%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 20:55
betPARX1.83I 54.64%NM 50.76%EV -7.29%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.13%EV -6.32%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -7.47%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 20:55
Betr (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.40%EV -7.80%E -4.29%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -5.10%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -4.97%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 23:04
Marathon Bet1.82I 54.95%NM 51.26%EV -7.80%E -4.29%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.80%EV -4.62%E -1.18%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.94%EV -6.47%E -1.73%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 06:40
LeoVegas1.82I 54.95%NM 50.40%EV -7.80%E -4.29%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.46%EV -8.75%E -2.33%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.13%EV -8.72%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-16 20:55
BetRivers1.82I 54.95%NM 50.06%EV -7.80%E -4.29%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.63%EV -9.97%E -2.69%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -9.97%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-17 07:25
PlayUp1.82I 54.95%NM 49.72%EV -7.80%E -4.29%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.79%EV -11.19%E -3.07%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.49%EV -11.22%E -3.16%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-12 11:39
Winamax (FR)1.82I 54.95%NM 49.70%EV -7.80%E -4.29%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -14.84%E -4.24%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.45%EV -7.47%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-13 07:15
Unibet1.81I 55.25%NM 50.02%EV -8.31%E -4.59%K -10.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.47%EV -9.97%E -2.69%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.51%EV -11.22%E -3.16%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-17 07:25
TABtouch1.81I 55.25%NM 50.02%EV -8.31%E -4.59%K -10.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.47%EV -9.97%E -2.69%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.51%EV -11.22%E -3.16%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-17 07:24
Grosvenor1.81I 55.25%NM 50.02%EV -8.31%E -4.59%K -10.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.47%EV -9.97%E -2.69%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.51%EV -11.22%E -3.16%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-17 07:24
betfred_uk1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -8.81%E -4.90%K -11.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -8.75%E -2.33%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -6.22%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-11 14:14
BoyleSports1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -8.81%E -4.90%K -11.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -12.40%E -3.45%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -9.97%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-17 06:20
Unibet (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 49.98%EV -8.81%E -4.90%K -11.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -14.84%E -4.24%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -7.47%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-16 23:35
LeoVegas (SE)1.79I 55.87%NM 50.13%EV -9.32%E -5.21%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.59%EV -11.19%E -3.07%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.28%EV -11.22%E -3.16%K -4.40%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-17 07:25
PMU (FR)1.77I 56.50%NM 50.07%EV -10.33%E -5.84%K -13.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.62%EV -12.40%E -3.45%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.32%EV -12.47%E -3.56%K -4.99%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-17 07:25
Paddy Power1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37%EV -11.35%E -6.48%K -15.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -7.54%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -9.97%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-11 23:03
NetBet (FR)1.75I 57.14%NM 51.03%EV -11.35%E -6.48%K -15.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.81%EV -8.75%E -2.33%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.16%EV -11.22%E -3.16%K -4.40%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-17 06:20
Sky Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 50.35%EV -11.35%E -6.48%K -15.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.48%EV -12.40%E -3.45%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.17%EV -12.47%E -3.56%K -4.99%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-14 13:25
LiveScore Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 50.17%EV -11.35%E -6.48%K -15.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.39%EV -12.40%E -3.45%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.45%EV -13.72%E -3.98%K -5.60%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-16 20:55
Virgin Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 50.17%EV -11.35%E -6.48%K -15.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.39%EV -12.40%E -3.45%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.45%EV -13.72%E -3.98%K -5.60%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-16 20:55
SportsBet1.72I 58.14%NM 51.12%EV -12.87%E -7.48%K -17.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.76%EV -9.97%E -2.69%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.12%EV -12.47%E -3.56%K -4.99%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-11 23:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 49.61%EV -15.40%E -9.22%K -22.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.67%EV -14.84%E -4.24%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.72%EV -22.47%E -7.25%K -10.70%G +0.000%20.7%2026-05-16 11:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.92I 52.08%NM 51.58%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.03%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39%1.0%2026-05-17 08:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.92I 52.08%NM 51.58%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.03%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39%1.0%2026-05-17 08:11
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.92I 52.08%NM 51.58%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.03%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39%1.0%2026-05-17 08:11
Kalshi1.92I 52.08%NM 51.53%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.73%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74%1.1%2026-05-17 06:15
Matchbook1.92I 52.08%NM 51.46%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.53%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.01%1.2%2026-05-17 08:05
Smarkets1.91I 52.36%NM 51.14%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.82%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.04%2.4%2026-05-17 07:30