The School of Odds
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Sturm Graz v Grazer AK

2026-10-18 15:00 UTC — Austrian Football Bundesliga

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sturm Graz (Local)

Prediction 56.53%1.77fair odd
EV -5.03%
Edge -3.00%
Kelly -7.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.91%56.42%56.59%58.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.621.651.6865.36%61.73%60.61%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Grazer AK (Visit)

Prediction 20.02%4.99fair odd
EV +0.104%
Edge +0.021%
Kelly +0.026%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.64%20.10%19.96%21.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.554.605.0025.00%21.97%21.74%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.45%4.26fair odd
EV -3.85%
Edge -0.939%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.73%23.48%23.45%24.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.893.854.1027.78%25.71%25.97%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Sturm Graz (Local): 56.53%; Grazer AK (Visit): 20.02%; Draw: 23.45%. For Grazer AK (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.99. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.00, producing a positive expected value of +0.104%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.47%EV -9.56%E -5.97%K -15.93%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV +0.104%E +0.021%K +0.026%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -3.85%E -0.939%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-11 01:45
FanDuel🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.62%EV -10.12%E -6.37%K -17.15%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV +0.104%E +0.021%K +0.026%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -3.85%E -0.939%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-10 18:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.27%EV -6.73%E -4.08%K -10.35%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -3.90%E -0.812%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.05%EV -3.85%E -0.939%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-10 20:14
Fanatics🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.82%EV -6.73%E -4.08%K -10.35%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -4.90%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -6.19%E -1.55%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-10 20:10
Pinnacle🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.49%EV -5.03%E -3.00%K -7.40%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.19%EV -5.90%E -1.26%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.32%EV -4.55%E -1.12%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 20:15
1xBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.30%EV -6.16%E -3.71%K -9.34%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.10%EV -6.90%E -1.48%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.60%EV -7.13%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-10 20:10
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.07%EV -6.73%E -4.08%K -10.35%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.90%EV -6.90%E -1.48%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -9.71%E -2.52%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-10 20:10
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.07%EV -6.73%E -4.08%K -10.35%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.90%EV -6.90%E -1.48%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -9.71%E -2.52%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-10 20:11
Bovada🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.31%EV -6.16%E -3.71%K -9.34%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -7.90%E -1.72%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -6.19%E -1.55%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-10 20:14
Unibet (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.58%EV -8.43%E -5.20%K -13.59%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -7.90%E -1.72%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -8.54%E -2.19%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-10 18:09
SportsBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.97%EV -13.51%E -8.83%K -25.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.28%EV -7.90%E -1.72%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.74%EV -8.54%E -2.19%K -2.94%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-10 18:30
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%EV -5.60%E -3.35%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -9.91%E -2.20%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -10.88%E -2.86%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-10 20:10
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%EV -5.60%E -3.35%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -9.91%E -2.20%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -10.88%E -2.86%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-10 20:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%EV -5.60%E -3.35%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -9.91%E -2.20%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -10.88%E -2.86%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-10 20:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%EV -5.60%E -3.35%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -9.91%E -2.20%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -10.88%E -2.86%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-10 20:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 56.64%EV -12.38%E -7.99%K -22.51%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.95%EV -11.91%E -2.71%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.41%EV -12.06%E -3.22%K -4.38%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-10 18:06
Sky Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 56.23%EV -13.51%E -8.83%K -25.50%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.87%EV -13.31%E -3.07%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.90%EV -15.57%E -4.33%K -5.99%G +0.000%16.2%2026-10-10 18:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.29%EV -11.82%E -7.58%K -21.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.91%EV -15.91%E -3.79%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.81%EV -9.71%E -2.52%K -3.41%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-10 18:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 55.98%EV -12.95%E -8.41%K -23.98%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.03%EV -17.91%E -4.37%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.99%EV -12.06%E -3.22%K -4.38%G +0.000%16.0%2026-10-10 18:10
BoyleSports🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 54.91%EV -9.56%E -5.97%K -15.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.97%EV -19.92%E -4.98%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.12%EV -10.88%E -2.86%K -3.89%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-10 20:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.54I 64.94%NM 55.73%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.43%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.84%16.5%2026-10-10 18:10