The School of Odds
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Rheindorf Altach v Sturm Graz

2026-11-22 13:30 UTC — Austrian Football Bundesliga

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rheindorf Altach (Local)

Prediction 29.76%3.36fair odd
EV -3.29%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.55%29.56%30.07%31.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.783.063.073.2535.97%32.68%32.57%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sturm Graz (Visit)

Prediction 44.55%2.24fair odd
EV -2.88%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -2.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.30%44.71%44.39%47.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.732.012.082.1857.80%49.75%48.19%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.69%3.89fair odd
EV -2.89%
Edge -0.765%
Kelly -1.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.41%25.73%25.54%26.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.333.553.553.7830.03%28.15%28.17%26.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Rheindorf Altach (Local): 29.76%; Sturm Graz (Visit): 44.55%; Draw: 25.69%. For Sturm Graz (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.24. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.18, with an expected value of -2.88%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.88%EV -3.29%E -1.01%K -1.46%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.95%EV -14.02%E -7.26%K -15.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -7.51%E -2.09%K -2.89%G +0.000%10.4%2026-11-08 16:25
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -4.77%E -1.49%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -8.67%E -4.23%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -4.95%E -1.34%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-08 19:09
1xBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -7.75%E -2.50%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.06%EV -5.55%E -2.62%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.80%EV -7.00%E -1.93%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-08 17:20
Fanatics🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.75%E -2.50%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -6.44%E -3.07%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -10.08%E -2.88%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-08 16:50
Winamax (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.35%EV -7.75%E -2.50%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 47.24%EV -17.13%E -9.21%K -19.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.41%EV -7.51%E -2.09%K -2.89%G +0.000%13.8%2026-11-08 16:25
Pinnacle🎯3.09I 32.36%NM 30.91%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.82%EV -2.88%E -1.32%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.27%EV -2.89%E -0.765%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-08 19:15
Betsson🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.10%EV -9.24%E -3.03%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.30%EV -5.55%E -2.62%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -11.37%E -3.30%K -4.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-08 19:10
NordicBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.10%EV -9.24%E -3.03%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.30%EV -5.55%E -2.62%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -11.37%E -3.30%K -4.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-08 19:10
Betr (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -10.73%E -3.58%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -4.21%E -1.96%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -3.66%E -0.976%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-08 19:25
Winamax (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.53%EV -10.73%E -3.58%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 47.02%EV -18.92%E -10.39%K -23.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.45%EV -10.08%E -2.88%K -4.03%G +0.000%16.8%2026-11-08 16:25
Unibet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 27.55%EV -10.73%E -3.58%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 47.78%EV -22.93%E -13.25%K -31.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 24.67%EV -13.94%E -4.16%K -5.93%G +0.000%21.0%2026-11-08 16:24
Betclic (FR)🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 30.60%EV -17.27%E -6.21%K -9.70%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 43.85%EV -13.57%E -6.99%K -14.44%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 25.55%EV -14.45%E -4.34%K -6.20%G +0.000%17.5%2026-11-08 19:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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