The School of Odds
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RB Salzburg v Rapid Wien

2026-09-02 18:30 UTC — Austrian Football Bundesliga

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

RB Salzburg (Local)

Prediction 46.79%2.14fair odd
EV -3.15%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -2.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.85%46.79%46.65%47.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.941.942.0754.64%51.41%51.41%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rapid Wien (Visit)

Prediction 28.54%3.50fair odd
EV -2.98%
Edge -0.875%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.11%28.58%28.75%30.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.153.153.4034.48%31.70%31.75%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.67%4.05fair odd
EV -3.77%
Edge -0.966%
Kelly -1.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.26%24.63%24.60%26.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.373.623.583.9029.67%27.65%27.97%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: RB Salzburg (Local): 46.79%; Rapid Wien (Visit): 28.54%; Draw: 24.67%. For Rapid Wien (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.50. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.40, with an expected value of -2.98%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.45%EV -3.15%E -1.52%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.67%EV -2.98%E -0.875%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -13.64%E -3.90%K -5.46%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-23 14:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.95%EV -4.08%E -1.99%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -10.11%E -3.21%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -3.77%E -0.966%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-23 14:14
Coolbet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -4.08%E -1.99%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.62%EV -10.11%E -3.21%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 14:14
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.34%EV -6.42%E -3.21%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.90%EV -11.54%E -3.72%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.76%EV -3.77%E -0.966%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-23 14:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.34%EV -6.42%E -3.21%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.90%EV -11.54%E -3.72%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.76%EV -3.77%E -0.966%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-23 18:34
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -8.76%E -4.49%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -2.98%E -0.875%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-23 13:55
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.85%EV -8.76%E -4.49%K -9.22%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -17.24%E -5.95%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.99%EV -13.64%E -3.90%K -5.46%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-23 14:14
SportsBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.75%EV -9.23%E -4.76%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.59%EV -14.39%E -4.80%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-23 14:14
Codere (IT)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.17%EV -9.70%E -5.02%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -4.40%E -1.31%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.65%EV -12.40%E -3.49%K -4.86%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-23 13:55
Suprabets🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 45.92%EV -9.70%E -5.02%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 27.78%EV -8.97%E -2.81%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 26.30%EV -16.85%E -5.00%K -7.11%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-23 14:38
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 47.13%EV -12.97%E -6.97%K -15.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.83%EV -10.11%E -3.21%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.04%EV -13.64%E -3.90%K -5.46%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-23 13:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 47.02%EV -13.91%E -7.56%K -16.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -11.54%E -3.72%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.08%EV -14.87%E -4.31%K -6.07%G +0.000%15.6%2026-08-23 13:55
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 47.66%EV -14.38%E -7.86%K -17.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.08%EV -14.39%E -4.80%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.26%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%14.6%2026-08-23 14:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 47.20%EV -14.38%E -7.86%K -17.32%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 27.16%EV -9.25%E -2.91%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 25.63%EV -16.85%E -5.00%K -7.11%G +0.000%15.8%2026-08-23 13:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.86I 53.76%NM 46.03%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.62%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.35%16.8%2026-08-23 18:34