Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

RB Salzburg v Hartberg

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

RB Salzburg (Local)

Prediction 64.01%1.56fair odd
EV -4.63%
Edge -3.11%
Kelly -9.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.43%64.11%63.93%65.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.441.441.4976.92%69.57%69.44%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hartberg (Visit)

Prediction 15.27%6.55fair odd
EV +6.92%
Edge +0.989%
Kelly +1.15%
Growth +0.080%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.17%15.16%15.38%16.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.206.026.007.0019.23%16.60%16.67%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.72%4.83fair odd
EV +0.686%
Edge +0.141%
Kelly +0.178%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.79%20.73%20.70%22.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.364.354.8626.67%22.93%22.99%20.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: RB Salzburg (Local): 64.01%; Hartberg (Visit): 15.27%; Draw: 20.72%. For Hartberg (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.55. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.92%.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.23%EV -5.91%E -4.02%K -12.57%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.70%EV +6.92%E +0.989%K +1.15%G +0.080%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.07%EV -5.74%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-01 15:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.23%EV -5.91%E -4.02%K -12.57%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.70%EV +6.92%E +0.989%K +1.15%G +0.080%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.07%EV -5.74%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-01 15:49
FanDuel🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -10.39%E -7.42%K -25.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV +6.92%E +0.989%K +1.15%G +0.080%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -8.84%E -2.01%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-01 15:43
Pinnacle🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.61%EV -5.91%E -4.02%K -12.57%G +0.000%6.85I 14.60%NM 14.08%EV +4.63%E +0.676%K +0.792%G +0.037%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.31%EV -1.59%E -0.335%K -0.425%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-01 15:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.76%EV -9.11%E -6.41%K -21.69%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.94%EV +2.34%E +0.350%K +0.411%G +0.010%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -4.70%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-01 15:49
Coolbet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.98%EV -5.91%E -4.02%K -12.57%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -0.713%E -0.110%K -0.130%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.32%EV -2.63%E -0.559%K -0.710%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-01 15:24
DraftKings🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.69%EV -5.91%E -4.02%K -12.57%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.63%EV -0.713%E -0.110%K -0.130%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.67%EV -4.70%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-01 15:54
Bet Right🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.41%EV -9.11%E -6.41%K -21.69%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.07%EV -0.713%E -0.110%K -0.130%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.52%EV -11.95%E -2.81%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-01 15:25
NordicBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.26%EV -6.55%E -4.49%K -14.24%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.66%EV -2.24%E -0.350%K -0.415%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.08%EV -7.81%E -1.75%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-01 15:44
Betsson🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.26%EV -6.55%E -4.49%K -14.24%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.66%EV -2.24%E -0.350%K -0.415%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.08%EV -7.81%E -1.75%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-01 15:43
Suprabets🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.44%EV -9.75%E -6.91%K -23.78%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.42%EV -3.77%E -0.598%K -0.711%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.13%EV -10.92%E -2.54%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-01 15:46
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.53%EV -10.39%E -7.42%K -25.97%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.23%EV -4.53%E -0.725%K -0.863%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -17.13%E -4.28%K -5.71%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-01 15:44
1xBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.55%EV -4.63%E -3.11%K -9.45%G +0.000%6.14I 16.29%NM 15.66%EV -6.21%E -1.01%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.86I 20.58%NM 19.79%EV +0.686%E +0.141%K +0.178%G +0.001%4.0%2026-03-01 15:49
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.47%EV -5.27%E -3.56%K -10.98%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -8.35%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -6.77%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-01 15:24
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.23%EV -7.19%E -4.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -8.35%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV -4.70%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-01 15:24
Bovada🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.78%EV -6.55%E -4.49%K -14.24%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -8.35%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -6.77%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-01 15:55
Unibet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.33%EV -6.55%E -4.49%K -14.24%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -8.35%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -9.88%E -2.27%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-24 04:40
Fanatics🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -7.83%E -5.44%K -17.79%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -8.35%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -6.77%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-01 15:24
BetRivers🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.49%EV -7.19%E -4.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -8.35%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.16%EV -9.88%E -2.27%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-24 04:39
Grosvenor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.49%EV -7.19%E -4.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -8.35%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.16%EV -9.88%E -2.27%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-24 04:39
Unibet (NL)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.49%EV -7.19%E -4.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -8.35%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.16%EV -9.88%E -2.27%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-24 04:39
Casumo🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.49%EV -7.19%E -4.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -8.35%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.16%EV -9.88%E -2.27%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-24 04:40
TABtouch🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.49%EV -7.19%E -4.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -8.35%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.16%EV -9.88%E -2.27%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-24 04:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.49%EV -7.19%E -4.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -8.35%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.16%EV -9.88%E -2.27%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-24 04:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.49%EV -7.19%E -4.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -8.35%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.16%EV -9.88%E -2.27%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-24 04:39
Svenska Spel🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.49%EV -7.19%E -4.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -8.35%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.16%EV -9.88%E -2.27%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-24 04:40
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -7.83%E -5.44%K -17.79%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -8.35%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -10.29%E -2.38%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-01 15:54
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -7.83%E -5.44%K -17.79%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -8.35%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -10.29%E -2.38%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-01 15:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -7.83%E -5.44%K -17.79%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -8.35%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -10.29%E -2.38%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-01 15:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -7.83%E -5.44%K -17.79%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -8.35%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -10.29%E -2.38%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-01 15:54
SportsBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 63.83%EV -12.95%E -9.52%K -35.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.47%EV -8.35%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.70%EV -17.13%E -4.28%K -5.71%G +0.000%15.2%2026-03-01 15:44
PMU (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 64.52%EV -16.79%E -12.92%K -55.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 13.98%EV -8.35%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.51%EV -19.20%E -4.92%K -6.62%G +0.000%19.2%2026-03-01 15:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.63%EV -8.47%E -5.92%K -19.70%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.69%EV -11.41%E -1.97%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.68%EV -8.84%E -2.01%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-01 15:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.16%EV -7.83%E -5.44%K -17.79%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.68%EV -11.41%E -1.97%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.15%EV -10.92%E -2.54%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-24 04:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.16%EV -7.83%E -5.44%K -17.79%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.68%EV -11.41%E -1.97%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.15%EV -10.92%E -2.54%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-24 04:40
LeoVegas🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.33%EV -8.47%E -5.92%K -19.70%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.61%EV -11.41%E -1.97%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.06%EV -10.92%E -2.54%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.4%2026-02-24 04:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.33%EV -8.47%E -5.92%K -19.70%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.61%EV -11.41%E -1.97%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.06%EV -10.92%E -2.54%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.4%2026-02-24 04:40
Betway🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.53%EV -5.27%E -3.56%K -10.98%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.10%EV -12.17%E -2.12%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.37%EV -10.29%E -2.38%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-01 15:49
theScore Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.90%EV -5.91%E -4.02%K -12.57%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.08%EV -12.17%E -2.12%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.02%EV -8.84%E -2.01%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-01 15:24
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.80%EV -10.39%E -7.42%K -25.97%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.67%EV -12.93%E -2.27%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.53%EV -9.88%E -2.27%K -2.95%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-01 15:34
Winamax (DE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.85%EV -8.47%E -5.92%K -19.70%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.30%EV -14.46%E -2.58%K -3.14%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.85%EV -4.70%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-01 15:24
Betclic (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.62%EV -10.39%E -7.42%K -25.97%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.90%EV -14.46%E -2.58%K -3.14%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.48%EV -9.88%E -2.27%K -2.95%G +0.000%12.3%2026-03-01 15:40
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -7.83%E -5.44%K -17.79%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -15.99%E -2.91%K -3.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -12.99%E -3.09%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-01 15:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -7.83%E -5.44%K -17.79%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -15.99%E -2.91%K -3.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -12.99%E -3.09%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-01 15:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -7.83%E -5.44%K -17.79%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -15.99%E -2.91%K -3.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -12.99%E -3.09%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-01 15:24
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -7.83%E -5.44%K -17.79%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -15.99%E -2.91%K -3.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -12.99%E -3.09%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-01 15:24
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.38%EV -10.39%E -7.42%K -25.97%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.13%EV -15.99%E -2.91%K -3.55%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.49%EV -10.29%E -2.38%K -3.09%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-01 15:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 61.43%EV -10.39%E -7.42%K -25.97%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.64%EV -15.99%E -2.91%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.93%EV -22.31%E -5.95%K -8.11%G +0.000%16.3%2026-03-01 15:44
Winamax (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 62.70%EV -10.39%E -7.42%K -25.97%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.88%EV -20.57%E -3.96%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.42%EV -10.92%E -2.54%K -3.31%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-01 15:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 66.16%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.72%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.12%0.8%2026-03-01 15:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.50I 66.67%NM 66.16%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.72%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.12%0.8%2026-03-01 15:44
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 66.16%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.72%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.12%0.8%2026-03-01 15:45
Smarkets1.49I 67.11%NM 65.32%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.52%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.16%2.7%2026-03-01 15:49