La escuela de los momios

RB Salzburg v Austria Wien

Inicio: 2026-04-22 16:30 UTC

Final: RB Salzburg 3–1 Austria Wien

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

49 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

RB Salzburg (Local)

Predicción 60.71%1.65momio equitativo
EV -4.08%
Ventaja -2.58%
Kelly -7.04%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.58

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
57.60%60.68%60.75%63.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.441.531.531.5869.44%65.41%65.36%63.29%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Austria Wien (Visitante)

Predicción 17.57%5.69momio equitativo
EV +3.65%
Ventaja +0.618%
Kelly +0.744%
Crecimiento +0.027%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.80%17.57%17.60%19.36%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.505.085.005.9022.22%19.69%20.00%16.95%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 21.73%4.60momio equitativo
EV -2.88%
Ventaja -0.645%
Kelly -0.831%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.47

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.70%21.75%21.64%23.70%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.604.114.004.4727.78%24.35%25.00%22.37%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
FanDuel1.48I 67.57%NM 63.00%EV -10.15%E -6.86%K -21.15%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.80%EV +3.65%E +0.618%K +0.744%G +0.027%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -4.41%E -1.00%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-22 16:19
Pinnacle1.56I 64.10%NM 61.86%EV -5.30%E -3.40%K -9.46%G +0.000%5.83I 17.15%NM 16.55%EV +2.42%E +0.414%K +0.500%G +0.012%4.47I 22.37%NM 21.59%EV -2.88%E -0.645%K -0.831%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-22 16:19
1xBet1.55I 64.52%NM 61.80%EV -5.90%E -3.81%K -10.73%G +0.000%5.83I 17.15%NM 16.43%EV +2.42%E +0.414%K +0.500%G +0.012%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.77%EV -4.41%E -1.00%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-22 16:24
Coolbet1.56I 64.10%NM 61.11%EV -5.30%E -3.40%K -9.46%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.72%EV +0.132%E +0.023%K +0.028%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.17%EV -6.58%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-22 16:15
Bovada1.53I 65.36%NM 61.39%EV -7.12%E -4.65%K -13.43%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.77%EV -1.62%E -0.290%K -0.353%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -6.58%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-22 16:24
DraftKings1.56I 64.10%NM 61.04%EV -5.30%E -3.40%K -9.46%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.31%EV -3.38%E -0.615%K -0.751%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.64%EV -4.41%E -1.00%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-22 16:05
BetMGM1.53I 65.36%NM 60.88%EV -7.12%E -4.65%K -13.43%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -3.38%E -0.615%K -0.751%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -8.75%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-22 16:19
NordicBet1.55I 64.52%NM 60.54%EV -5.90%E -3.81%K -10.73%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.38%EV -5.14%E -0.951%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.08%EV -7.66%E -1.80%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-22 16:05
Betsson1.55I 64.52%NM 60.54%EV -5.90%E -3.81%K -10.73%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.38%EV -5.14%E -0.951%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.08%EV -7.66%E -1.80%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-22 16:05
LowVig.ag1.54I 64.94%NM 60.85%EV -6.51%E -4.23%K -12.06%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.35%EV -5.14%E -0.951%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV -6.58%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-22 16:04
BetOnline.ag1.54I 64.94%NM 60.85%EV -6.51%E -4.23%K -12.06%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.35%EV -5.14%E -0.951%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV -6.58%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-22 16:05
Unibet (UK)1.54I 64.94%NM 60.85%EV -6.51%E -4.23%K -12.06%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -7.77%E -1.48%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%EV -4.41%E -1.00%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-22 16:13
theScore Bet1.54I 64.94%NM 60.64%EV -6.51%E -4.23%K -12.06%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -7.77%E -1.48%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.57%EV -5.93%E -1.37%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-22 16:09
Betr (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.09%EV -5.90%E -3.81%K -10.73%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.74%EV -7.77%E -1.48%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -8.75%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-22 16:14
Betway1.53I 65.36%NM 60.40%EV -7.12%E -4.65%K -13.43%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.60%EV -7.77%E -1.48%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%EV -8.75%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-22 16:04
Bet Right1.53I 65.36%NM 60.07%EV -7.12%E -4.65%K -13.43%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.51%EV -7.77%E -1.48%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.42%EV -10.92%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-22 16:14
Sky Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 60.22%EV -8.94%E -5.96%K -17.88%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.20%EV -7.77%E -1.48%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -13.10%E -3.27%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-22 16:19
PlayUp1.50I 66.67%NM 60.22%EV -8.94%E -5.96%K -17.88%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.20%EV -7.77%E -1.48%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -13.10%E -3.27%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-22 16:14
Suprabets1.50I 66.67%NM 60.77%EV -8.94%E -5.96%K -17.88%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.53%EV -8.65%E -1.66%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -8.75%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-22 16:05
Unibet (FR)1.45I 68.97%NM 61.37%EV -11.97%E -8.26%K -26.61%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.45%EV -10.41%E -2.04%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.19%EV -8.75%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-22 16:20
888sport1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -7.12%E -4.65%K -13.43%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -12.16%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -13.10%E -3.27%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-22 16:00
William Hill1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -7.12%E -4.65%K -13.43%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -12.16%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -13.10%E -3.27%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-22 16:19
Mr Green (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -7.12%E -4.65%K -13.43%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -12.16%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -13.10%E -3.27%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-22 16:00
888sport (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -7.12%E -4.65%K -13.43%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -12.16%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -13.10%E -3.27%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-22 16:00
betfred_uk1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -8.94%E -5.96%K -17.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -12.16%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -13.10%E -3.27%K -4.37%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-22 16:14
Ladbrokes (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -8.94%E -5.96%K -17.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -12.16%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -13.10%E -3.27%K -4.37%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-22 16:19
Neds1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -8.94%E -5.96%K -17.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -12.16%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -13.10%E -3.27%K -4.37%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-22 16:19
Ladbrokes (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -8.94%E -5.96%K -17.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -12.16%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -13.10%E -3.27%K -4.37%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-22 16:19
Coral1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -8.94%E -5.96%K -17.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -12.16%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -13.10%E -3.27%K -4.37%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-22 16:19
Betclic (FR)1.47I 68.03%NM 60.67%EV -10.76%E -7.32%K -22.90%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.84%EV -12.16%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.49%EV -9.84%E -2.37%K -3.12%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-22 16:10
SportsBet1.44I 69.44%NM 60.34%EV -12.58%E -8.74%K -28.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.38%EV -12.16%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.28%EV -15.27%E -3.92%K -5.27%G +0.000%15.1%2026-04-22 16:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 59.24%EV -12.58%E -8.74%K -28.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.06%EV -12.16%E -2.43%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.70%EV -21.79%E -6.05%K -8.38%G +0.000%17.2%2026-04-22 16:19
Winamax (DE)1.50I 66.67%NM 60.72%EV -8.94%E -5.96%K -17.88%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.59%EV -13.92%E -2.84%K -3.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.70%EV -4.41%E -1.00%K -1.30%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-22 16:14
Unibet1.58I 63.29%NM 57.88%EV -4.08%E -2.58%K -7.04%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.25%EV -16.56%E -3.49%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -13.10%E -3.27%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-22 00:09
Casumo1.57I 63.69%NM 58.04%EV -4.69%E -2.99%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.18%EV -16.56%E -3.49%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -13.10%E -3.27%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-22 00:09
Grosvenor1.57I 63.69%NM 58.04%EV -4.69%E -2.99%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.18%EV -16.56%E -3.49%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -13.10%E -3.27%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-22 00:10
Unibet (NL)1.57I 63.69%NM 58.04%EV -4.69%E -2.99%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.18%EV -16.56%E -3.49%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -13.10%E -3.27%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-22 00:10
TABtouch1.57I 63.69%NM 58.04%EV -4.69%E -2.99%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.18%EV -16.56%E -3.49%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -13.10%E -3.27%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-22 00:10
BetRivers1.57I 63.69%NM 58.04%EV -4.69%E -2.99%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.18%EV -16.56%E -3.49%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -13.10%E -3.27%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-22 00:09
Unibet (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 58.04%EV -4.69%E -2.99%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.18%EV -16.56%E -3.49%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -13.10%E -3.27%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-22 00:10
ATG (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 58.04%EV -4.69%E -2.99%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.18%EV -16.56%E -3.49%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -13.10%E -3.27%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-22 00:10
Svenska Spel1.57I 63.69%NM 58.04%EV -4.69%E -2.99%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.18%EV -16.56%E -3.49%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -13.10%E -3.27%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-22 00:10
BoyleSports1.44I 69.44%NM 60.75%EV -12.58%E -8.74%K -28.60%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.42%EV -16.56%E -3.49%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.83%EV -8.75%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%14.3%2026-04-22 16:05
Virgin Bet1.58I 63.29%NM 57.60%EV -4.08%E -2.58%K -7.04%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.36%EV -17.44%E -3.71%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.04%EV -14.18%E -3.59%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-22 00:10
LiveScore Bet1.58I 63.29%NM 57.60%EV -4.08%E -2.58%K -7.04%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.36%EV -17.44%E -3.71%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.04%EV -14.18%E -3.59%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-22 08:40
LeoVegas (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 57.75%EV -4.69%E -2.99%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.29%EV -17.44%E -3.71%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.96%EV -14.18%E -3.59%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-22 00:10
LeoVegas1.57I 63.69%NM 57.75%EV -4.69%E -2.99%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.29%EV -17.44%E -3.71%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.96%EV -14.18%E -3.59%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-22 00:10
Winamax (FR)1.46I 68.49%NM 60.30%EV -11.37%E -7.79%K -24.71%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.73%EV -17.44%E -3.71%K -4.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.96%EV -8.75%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-22 16:14
PMU (FR)1.51I 66.23%NM 57.71%EV -8.33%E -5.52%K -16.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.36%EV -20.95%E -4.66%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.93%EV -17.44%E -4.59%K -6.23%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-22 00:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.58I 63.29%NM 62.88%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.52%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.60%0.7%2026-04-22 16:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.58I 63.29%NM 62.88%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.52%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.60%0.7%2026-04-22 16:24
Matchbook1.57I 63.69%NM 63.03%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.51%1.1%2026-04-22 16:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.58I 63.29%NM 62.58%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.45%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.97%1.1%2026-04-22 16:24
Smarkets1.56I 64.10%NM 62.24%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.18%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.58%3.0%2026-04-22 16:24