Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

RB Salzburg v Austria Wien

Kickoff: 2026-08-30 17:00 UTC

Final: RB Salzburg 4–1 Austria Wien

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

51 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

RB Salzburg (Local)

Prediction 68.83%1.45fair odd
EV -2.26%
Edge -1.59%
Kelly -5.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.16%68.66%68.87%70.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.341.341.4277.52%74.76%74.63%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Austria Wien (Visit)

Prediction 12.72%7.86fair odd
EV +7.71%
Edge +0.911%
Kelly +1.03%
Growth +0.080%

assuming max odds 8.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.34%12.84%12.67%15.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.907.087.008.4716.95%14.12%14.29%11.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.45%5.42fair odd
EV -0.563%
Edge -0.105%
Kelly -0.128%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.43%18.50%18.46%20.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.894.905.3922.22%20.43%20.41%18.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: RB Salzburg (Local): 68.83%; Austria Wien (Visit): 12.72%; Draw: 18.45%. For Austria Wien (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.86. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.47, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.71%.

Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.64%EV -6.39%E -4.69%K -17.74%G +0.000%8.47I 11.81%NM 11.34%EV +7.71%E +0.911%K +1.03%G +0.080%5.33I 18.76%NM 18.02%EV -1.67%E -0.313%K -0.386%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-30 16:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.08%EV -8.45%E -6.35%K -25.61%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV +1.74%E +0.217%K +0.248%G +0.004%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27%EV -5.91%E -1.16%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 16:50
FanDuel🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.88%EV -9.83%E -7.50%K -31.70%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV +1.74%E +0.217%K +0.248%G +0.004%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.52%EV -2.22%E -0.420%K -0.517%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-30 16:19
Suprabets🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 69.51%EV -9.83%E -7.50%K -31.70%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.53%EV +0.466%E +0.059%K +0.068%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.97%EV -11.45%E -2.38%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-30 15:16
Tipico (DE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.35%EV -8.45%E -6.35%K -25.61%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.00%EV -0.806%E -0.103%K -0.119%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.65%EV -2.22%E -0.420%K -0.517%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 16:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.87%EV -8.45%E -6.35%K -25.61%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.91%EV -0.806%E -0.103%K -0.119%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.22%EV -5.91%E -1.16%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-30 16:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.86%EV -7.07%E -5.24%K -20.21%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.17%EV -1.44%E -0.186%K -0.214%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -3.15%E -0.599%K -0.740%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 16:50
Coolbet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.02%EV -7.76%E -5.79%K -22.83%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.11%EV -1.44%E -0.186%K -0.214%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.87%EV -3.15%E -0.599%K -0.740%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-30 16:49
DraftKings🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.43%EV -6.39%E -4.69%K -17.74%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -4.62%E -0.616%K -0.711%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -3.15%E -0.599%K -0.740%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-30 16:44
Bovada🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.39%E -4.69%K -17.74%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -4.62%E -0.616%K -0.711%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -7.76%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 16:49
Fanatics🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.45%E -6.35%K -25.61%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -4.62%E -0.616%K -0.711%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -7.76%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-30 14:55
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.38%EV -10.52%E -8.09%K -35.05%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -4.62%E -0.616%K -0.711%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.43%EV -3.15%E -0.599%K -0.740%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-30 16:50
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.76%EV -8.45%E -6.35%K -25.61%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -4.62%E -0.616%K -0.711%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.05%EV -11.45%E -2.38%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-30 16:44
William Hill🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.76%EV -8.45%E -6.35%K -25.61%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -4.62%E -0.616%K -0.711%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.05%EV -11.45%E -2.38%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-30 16:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.76%EV -8.45%E -6.35%K -25.61%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -4.62%E -0.616%K -0.711%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.05%EV -11.45%E -2.38%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-30 16:44
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.76%EV -8.45%E -6.35%K -25.61%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -4.62%E -0.616%K -0.711%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.05%EV -11.45%E -2.38%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-30 16:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -10.52%E -8.09%K -35.05%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -4.62%E -0.616%K -0.711%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -7.76%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-30 16:50
Betsson🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.01%EV -5.01%E -3.63%K -13.18%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.67%EV -7.16%E -0.981%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.32%EV -16.06%E -3.53%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-30 16:44
NordicBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.01%EV -5.01%E -3.63%K -13.18%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.67%EV -7.16%E -0.981%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.32%EV -16.06%E -3.53%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-30 16:44
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.04%EV -3.63%E -2.59%K -9.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -10.98%E -1.57%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -11.45%E -2.38%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 16:50
Unibet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -7.76%E -5.79%K -22.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -10.98%E -1.57%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -9.60%E -1.96%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-30 00:19
TABtouch🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -7.76%E -5.79%K -22.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -10.98%E -1.57%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -9.60%E -1.96%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-30 00:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -7.76%E -5.79%K -22.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -10.98%E -1.57%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -9.60%E -1.96%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-30 00:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -7.76%E -5.79%K -22.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -10.98%E -1.57%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -9.60%E -1.96%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-30 00:15
Casumo🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -7.76%E -5.79%K -22.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -10.98%E -1.57%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -9.60%E -1.96%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-30 00:20
Grosvenor🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -7.76%E -5.79%K -22.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -10.98%E -1.57%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -9.60%E -1.96%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-30 00:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -7.76%E -5.79%K -22.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -10.98%E -1.57%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -9.60%E -1.96%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-30 00:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -7.76%E -5.79%K -22.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -10.98%E -1.57%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -9.60%E -1.96%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-30 00:15
Bet Right🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -8.45%E -6.35%K -25.61%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -10.98%E -1.57%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -7.76%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-30 16:50
BetRivers🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.33%EV -9.14%E -6.92%K -28.56%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.88%EV -10.98%E -1.57%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.79%EV -11.45%E -2.38%K -3.01%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-30 00:19
betfred_uk🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -10.52%E -8.09%K -35.05%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -10.98%E -1.57%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -7.76%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-30 16:50
Sky Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.66%EV -10.52%E -8.09%K -35.05%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -10.98%E -1.57%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.59%EV -11.45%E -2.38%K -3.01%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-30 15:20
BoyleSports🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.52%EV -10.52%E -8.09%K -35.05%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -10.98%E -1.57%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.75%EV -12.37%E -2.60%K -3.30%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-30 14:00
SportsBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 68.82%EV -11.20%E -8.68%K -38.63%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.68%EV -10.98%E -1.57%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.50%EV -11.45%E -2.38%K -3.01%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-30 16:20
PlayUp🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.50%EV -6.39%E -4.69%K -17.74%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.40%EV -14.16%E -2.10%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.10%EV -16.98%E -3.77%K -4.85%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-30 16:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.20%EV -10.52%E -8.09%K -35.05%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.13%EV -14.16%E -2.10%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.67%EV -12.37%E -2.60%K -3.30%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-30 00:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.20%EV -10.52%E -8.09%K -35.05%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.13%EV -14.16%E -2.10%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.67%EV -12.37%E -2.60%K -3.30%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-30 00:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.20%EV -10.52%E -8.09%K -35.05%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.13%EV -14.16%E -2.10%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.67%EV -12.37%E -2.60%K -3.30%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-30 00:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.20%EV -10.52%E -8.09%K -35.05%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.13%EV -14.16%E -2.10%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.67%EV -12.37%E -2.60%K -3.30%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-30 00:20
1xBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.73%EV -2.26%E -1.59%K -5.37%G +0.000%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.42%EV -15.18%E -2.28%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.39I 18.55%NM 17.84%EV -0.563%E -0.105%K -0.128%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-30 16:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.35%EV -5.70%E -4.16%K -15.40%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.20%EV -17.34%E -2.67%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -7.76%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-30 16:50
theScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.51%EV -6.39%E -4.69%K -17.74%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -17.34%E -2.67%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -7.76%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-30 16:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.16%EV -6.39%E -4.69%K -17.74%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -17.34%E -2.67%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -16.98%E -3.77%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-30 16:50
Coral🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.16%EV -6.39%E -4.69%K -17.74%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -17.34%E -2.67%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -16.98%E -3.77%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-30 16:50
Neds🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.16%EV -6.39%E -4.69%K -17.74%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -17.34%E -2.67%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -16.98%E -3.77%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-30 16:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.16%EV -6.39%E -4.69%K -17.74%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -17.34%E -2.67%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -16.98%E -3.77%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-30 16:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 66.64%EV -7.76%E -5.79%K -22.83%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.74%EV -17.34%E -2.67%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.63%EV -16.06%E -3.53%K -4.52%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-30 16:53
Codere (IT)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.85%EV -6.39%E -4.69%K -17.74%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.21%EV -18.61%E -2.91%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -11.45%E -2.38%K -3.01%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-30 16:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.77%EV -9.14%E -6.92%K -28.56%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.98%EV -18.61%E -2.91%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.26%EV -9.60%E -1.96%K -2.46%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-30 16:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.96%EV -6.39%E -4.69%K -17.74%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -23.70%E -3.95%K -4.74%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.86%EV -5.91%E -1.16%K -1.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-30 16:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 66.88%EV -7.76%E -5.79%K -22.83%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.19%EV -24.97%E -4.23%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.92%EV -7.76%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-30 16:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 71.00%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.56%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.44%0.6%2026-08-30 16:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.40I 71.43%NM 71.00%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.56%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.44%0.6%2026-08-30 16:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 71.00%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.56%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.44%0.6%2026-08-30 16:55
Matchbook1.40I 71.43%NM 71.00%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.56%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.44%0.6%2026-08-30 16:45
Smarkets1.39I 71.94%NM 70.74%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.71%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.56%1.7%2026-08-30 16:55