Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Rapid Wien v Sturm Graz

Início: 2026-08-30 15:00 UTC

Final: Rapid Wien 3–1 Sturm Graz

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

51 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Rapid Wien (Local)

Previsão 44.94%2.23odd justa
EV -3.83%
Vantagem -1.79%
Kelly -3.36%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.14

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
43.47%44.98%44.91%46.78%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.932.052.052.1451.81%48.76%48.78%46.73%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Sturm Graz (Visitante)

Previsão 29.74%3.36odd justa
EV -2.45%
Vantagem -0.746%
Kelly -1.07%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.28

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.67%29.69%29.78%30.90%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.803.083.103.2835.71%32.51%32.26%30.49%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 25.32%3.95odd justa
EV -1.26%
Vantagem -0.322%
Kelly -0.433%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.90

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
23.96%25.33%25.31%26.59%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.353.593.553.9029.85%27.84%28.17%25.64%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Rapid Wien (Local): 44.94%; Sturm Graz (Visitante): 29.74%; Empate: 25.32%. Para Empate, essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.95. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 3.90, com valor esperado de -1.26%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (51 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 45.19%EV -3.83%E -1.79%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.49%EV -2.45%E -0.746%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.32%EV -3.28%E -0.859%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-30 14:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.61%EV -3.83%E -1.79%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.10%EV -7.80%E -2.52%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.29%EV -10.12%E -2.85%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 07:00
TABtouch🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.61%EV -3.83%E -1.79%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.10%EV -7.80%E -2.52%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.29%EV -10.12%E -2.85%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 07:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.61%EV -3.83%E -1.79%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.10%EV -7.80%E -2.52%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.29%EV -10.12%E -2.85%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 06:55
Unibet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.61%EV -3.83%E -1.79%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.10%EV -7.80%E -2.52%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.29%EV -10.12%E -2.85%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 07:00
Casumo🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.61%EV -3.83%E -1.79%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.10%EV -7.80%E -2.52%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.29%EV -10.12%E -2.85%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 07:00
Grosvenor🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.61%EV -3.83%E -1.79%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.10%EV -7.80%E -2.52%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.29%EV -10.12%E -2.85%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 07:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.61%EV -3.83%E -1.79%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.10%EV -7.80%E -2.52%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.29%EV -10.12%E -2.85%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 07:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.61%EV -3.83%E -1.79%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.10%EV -7.80%E -2.52%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.29%EV -10.12%E -2.85%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 07:00
1xBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.72%EV -5.63%E -2.68%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.27%EV -2.45%E -0.746%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.00%EV -2.78%E -0.723%K -0.977%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-30 14:55
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.12%EV -5.63%E -2.68%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -4.83%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.27%EV -5.05%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-30 14:35
LowVig.ag🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -5.63%E -2.68%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -3.34%E -1.03%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -8.85%E -2.46%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-30 14:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -5.63%E -2.68%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -3.34%E -1.03%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -8.85%E -2.46%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-30 14:49
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -5.63%E -2.68%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -7.80%E -2.52%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -6.32%E -1.71%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 14:55
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -5.63%E -2.68%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.80%E -2.52%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -11.38%E -3.25%K -4.55%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-30 14:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.78%EV -6.53%E -3.14%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -7.80%E -2.52%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -6.32%E -1.71%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-30 06:49
BetRivers🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.50%EV -6.98%E -3.37%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -10.77%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -13.92%E -4.09%K -5.80%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-30 07:00
FanDuel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.16%EV -7.87%E -3.84%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.57%EV -4.83%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.26%EV -1.26%E -0.322%K -0.433%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 14:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.95%EV -7.87%E -3.84%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -6.31%E -2.00%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -1.26%E -0.322%K -0.433%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-30 14:55
Coolbet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.58%EV -7.87%E -3.84%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -7.80%E -2.52%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%EV -2.52%E -0.655%K -0.885%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 14:55
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -7.87%E -3.84%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.62%EV -6.31%E -2.00%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -5.05%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 14:53
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -7.87%E -3.84%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -7.80%E -2.52%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -5.05%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-30 14:50
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -7.87%E -3.84%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -7.80%E -2.52%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.85%E -2.46%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-30 06:49
Betsson🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.75%EV -7.87%E -3.84%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -4.83%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -12.65%E -3.67%K -5.16%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-30 14:44
NordicBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.75%EV -7.87%E -3.84%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -4.83%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -12.65%E -3.67%K -5.16%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-30 14:45
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.87%E -3.84%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -7.80%E -2.52%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -11.38%E -3.25%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-30 14:34
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.87%E -3.84%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -7.80%E -2.52%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -11.38%E -3.25%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-30 14:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.87%E -3.84%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -7.80%E -2.52%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -11.38%E -3.25%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-30 14:34
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.87%E -3.84%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -7.80%E -2.52%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -11.38%E -3.25%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-30 14:34
PlayUp🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -7.87%E -3.84%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -10.77%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -11.38%E -3.25%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-30 14:44
LiveScore Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 43.47%EV -8.32%E -4.08%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.06%EV -12.26%E -4.16%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.47%EV -15.18%E -4.53%K -6.46%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-30 07:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 43.47%EV -8.32%E -4.08%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.06%EV -12.26%E -4.16%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.47%EV -15.18%E -4.53%K -6.46%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-30 07:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 43.47%EV -8.32%E -4.08%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.06%EV -12.26%E -4.16%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.47%EV -15.18%E -4.53%K -6.46%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-30 07:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 43.47%EV -8.32%E -4.08%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.06%EV -12.26%E -4.16%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.47%EV -15.18%E -4.53%K -6.46%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-30 07:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 44.85%EV -8.77%E -4.32%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.85%EV -9.29%E -3.04%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -8.85%E -2.46%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-30 06:50
Suprabets🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 44.78%EV -8.77%E -4.32%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.80%E -2.52%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 25.90%EV -11.13%E -3.17%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-30 14:34
Tipico (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -10.12%E -5.06%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -4.83%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -1.26%E -0.322%K -0.433%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 08:10
Bet Right🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.68%EV -10.12%E -5.06%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.96%EV -9.29%E -3.04%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -5.05%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-30 14:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.31%EV -10.12%E -5.06%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -10.77%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -6.32%E -1.71%K -2.34%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-30 06:49
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -10.12%E -5.06%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -10.77%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -8.85%E -2.46%K -3.40%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-30 14:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.93%EV -10.12%E -5.06%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.46%EV -12.26%E -4.16%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.62%EV -7.59%E -2.08%K -2.86%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-30 06:50
Neds🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -10.12%E -5.06%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.77%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.38%E -3.25%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-30 14:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -10.12%E -5.06%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.77%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.38%E -3.25%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-30 14:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -10.12%E -5.06%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.77%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.38%E -3.25%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-30 14:54
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -10.12%E -5.06%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.77%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.38%E -3.25%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-30 14:54
Betclic (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.09%EV -11.02%E -5.57%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.76%EV -10.77%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.15%EV -10.12%E -2.85%K -3.97%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-30 14:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.08%EV -12.37%E -6.34%K -13.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -10.77%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -5.05%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-30 14:54
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.63%EV -12.37%E -6.34%K -13.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -10.77%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.71%EV -8.85%E -2.46%K -3.40%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-30 14:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.63%EV -12.37%E -6.34%K -13.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -10.77%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.71%EV -8.85%E -2.46%K -3.40%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-30 14:34
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.37%EV -12.37%E -6.34%K -13.02%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.90%EV -16.72%E -5.97%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.72%EV -11.38%E -3.25%K -4.55%G +0.000%15.6%2026-08-30 14:50
SportsBet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 45.65%EV -13.27%E -6.87%K -14.27%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.87%EV -12.26%E -4.16%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.48%EV -8.85%E -2.46%K -3.40%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-30 14:54
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 45.34%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%1.2%2026-08-30 14:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 45.34%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%1.2%2026-08-30 14:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 45.34%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%1.2%2026-08-30 14:45
Matchbook◎2.18I 45.87%NM 45.34%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%1.2%2026-08-30 14:45
Smarkets◎2.16I 46.30%NM 45.36%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.15%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%2.1%2026-08-30 14:50