Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

LASK v Ried

Inicio: 2026-08-14 17:30 UTC

Final: LASK 4–1 Ried

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

50 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

LASK (Local)

Predicción 65.94%1.52momio equitativo
EV -2.41%
Ventaja -1.63%
Kelly -5.02%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.48

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
63.66%66.02%65.82%68.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.321.391.381.4875.76%72.18%72.20%67.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Ried (Visitante)

Predicción 14.59%6.86momio equitativo
EV +9.40%
Ventaja +1.25%
Kelly +1.45%
Crecimiento +0.136%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
12.43%14.45%14.59%15.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.706.376.457.5017.54%15.69%15.50%13.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 19.47%5.13momio equitativo
EV -1.07%
Ventaja -0.210%
Kelly -0.262%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.08

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.27%19.52%19.59%21.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.254.714.755.0823.53%21.25%21.05%19.69%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: LASK (Local): 65.94%; Ried (Visitante): 14.59%; Empate: 19.47%. Para Ried (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 6.86. 6 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 7.50, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +9.40%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
FanDuel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.55%EV -10.32%E -7.59%K -28.68%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV +9.40%E +1.25%K +1.45%G +0.136%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -4.57%E -0.934%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-14 16:43
Pinnacle🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.69%EV -6.37%E -4.48%K -15.16%G +0.000%7.18I 13.93%NM 13.39%EV +4.73%E +0.659%K +0.766%G +0.036%5.08I 19.69%NM 18.92%EV -1.07%E -0.210%K -0.262%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-14 17:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.31%EV -7.69%E -5.49%K -19.22%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.46%EV +2.11%E +0.301%K +0.351%G +0.007%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -4.57%E -0.934%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-14 17:19
LowVig.ag🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.47%EV -8.35%E -6.00%K -21.40%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.40%EV +2.11%E +0.301%K +0.351%G +0.007%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -4.57%E -0.934%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-14 17:14
BetOnline.ag🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.47%EV -8.35%E -6.00%K -21.40%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.40%EV +2.11%E +0.301%K +0.351%G +0.007%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -4.57%E -0.934%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-14 17:14
Tipico (DE)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.04%EV -9.66%E -7.05%K -26.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV +2.11%E +0.301%K +0.351%G +0.007%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -2.63%E -0.525%K -0.657%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-14 16:40
Coolbet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.57%EV -7.69%E -5.49%K -19.22%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.81%EV -1.54%E -0.228%K -0.268%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.62%EV -7.50%E -1.58%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-14 17:19
DraftKings🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.88%EV -5.71%E -3.99%K -13.27%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.49%EV -5.19%E -0.798%K -0.943%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.63%EV -6.52%E -1.36%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-14 17:24
BetMGM🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.74%EV -5.71%E -3.99%K -13.27%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -5.19%E -0.798%K -0.943%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.79%EV -7.50%E -1.58%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-14 17:19
Bovada🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.04%EV -6.37%E -4.48%K -15.16%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.43%EV -5.19%E -0.798%K -0.943%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -6.52%E -1.36%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-14 17:22
Unibet (UK)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.90%EV -6.37%E -4.48%K -15.16%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -5.19%E -0.798%K -0.943%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.70%EV -7.50%E -1.58%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-14 16:59
Bet Right🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.54%EV -9.00%E -6.53%K -23.70%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -5.19%E -0.798%K -0.943%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.33%EV -7.50%E -1.58%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-14 17:19
TABtouch🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.67%EV -10.98%E -8.14%K -31.38%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.06%EV -5.19%E -0.798%K -0.943%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -2.63%E -0.525%K -0.657%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-14 16:59
Svenska Spel🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.67%EV -10.98%E -8.14%K -31.38%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.06%EV -5.19%E -0.798%K -0.943%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -2.63%E -0.525%K -0.657%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-14 16:59
Grosvenor🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.67%EV -10.98%E -8.14%K -31.38%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.06%EV -5.19%E -0.798%K -0.943%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -2.63%E -0.525%K -0.657%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-14 16:59
Unibet (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.67%EV -10.98%E -8.14%K -31.38%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.06%EV -5.19%E -0.798%K -0.943%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -2.63%E -0.525%K -0.657%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-14 16:59
Casumo🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.67%EV -10.98%E -8.14%K -31.38%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.06%EV -5.19%E -0.798%K -0.943%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -2.63%E -0.525%K -0.657%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-14 16:59
Unibet (NL)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.67%EV -10.98%E -8.14%K -31.38%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.06%EV -5.19%E -0.798%K -0.943%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -2.63%E -0.525%K -0.657%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-14 16:59
ATG (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.67%EV -10.98%E -8.14%K -31.38%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.06%EV -5.19%E -0.798%K -0.943%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -2.63%E -0.525%K -0.657%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-14 16:59
Unibet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.67%EV -10.98%E -8.14%K -31.38%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.06%EV -5.19%E -0.798%K -0.943%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -2.63%E -0.525%K -0.657%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-14 16:59
Suprabets🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.12%EV -9.00%E -6.53%K -23.70%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -5.19%E -0.798%K -0.943%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -10.42%E -2.26%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-14 17:08
BetRivers🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.75%EV -12.30%E -9.25%K -37.28%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.86%EV -5.19%E -0.798%K -0.943%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.39%EV -4.57%E -0.934%K -1.17%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-14 16:59
betfred_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.16%EV -10.32%E -7.59%K -28.68%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -5.19%E -0.798%K -0.943%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -12.36%E -2.75%K -3.53%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-14 16:59
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.65%EV -10.32%E -7.59%K -28.68%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.74%EV -5.19%E -0.798%K -0.943%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.62%EV -15.67%E -3.62%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-14 16:44
SportsBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.36%EV -12.30%E -9.25%K -37.28%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.58%EV -5.19%E -0.798%K -0.943%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.06%EV -14.31%E -3.25%K -4.21%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-14 16:44
Virgin Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.51%EV -12.96%E -9.82%K -40.50%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.92%EV -6.64%E -1.04%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.57%EV -6.52%E -1.36%K -1.72%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-14 16:59
LiveScore Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.51%EV -12.96%E -9.82%K -40.50%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.92%EV -6.64%E -1.04%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.57%EV -6.52%E -1.36%K -1.72%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-14 16:59
PMU (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.51%EV -12.96%E -9.82%K -40.50%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.92%EV -6.64%E -1.04%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.57%EV -6.52%E -1.36%K -1.72%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-14 16:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.51%EV -12.96%E -9.82%K -40.50%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.92%EV -6.64%E -1.04%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.57%EV -6.52%E -1.36%K -1.72%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-14 16:59
1xBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.06%EV -2.41%E -1.63%K -5.02%G +0.000%6.35I 15.75%NM 15.16%EV -7.37%E -1.16%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.77%EV -5.16%E -1.06%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-14 17:24
Betsson🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.80%EV -4.39%E -3.03%K -9.75%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.68%EV -8.10%E -1.29%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.51%EV -16.26%E -3.78%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-14 17:24
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.80%EV -4.39%E -3.03%K -9.75%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.68%EV -8.10%E -1.29%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.51%EV -16.26%E -3.78%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-14 17:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.02%EV -10.98%E -8.14%K -31.38%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.61%EV -11.02%E -1.81%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -10.42%E -2.26%K -2.89%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-14 17:04
Betway🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.96%EV -5.71%E -3.99%K -13.27%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -12.48%E -2.08%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -7.50%E -1.58%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-14 17:24
Fanatics🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.12%EV -6.37%E -4.48%K -15.16%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -12.48%E -2.08%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.47%EV -7.50%E -1.58%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-14 17:24
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -5.05%E -3.51%K -11.47%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -12.48%E -2.08%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -14.31%E -3.25%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 17:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -5.05%E -3.51%K -11.47%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -12.48%E -2.08%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -14.31%E -3.25%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 17:24
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -5.05%E -3.51%K -11.47%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -12.48%E -2.08%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -14.31%E -3.25%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 17:24
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -5.05%E -3.51%K -11.47%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -12.48%E -2.08%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -14.31%E -3.25%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 17:24
theScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.90%EV -9.00%E -6.53%K -23.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -12.48%E -2.08%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -6.52%E -1.36%K -1.72%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-14 16:59
Codere (IT)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 65.20%EV -8.35%E -6.00%K -21.40%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.10%EV -12.48%E -2.08%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.70%EV -10.42%E -2.26%K -2.89%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-14 16:59
PlayUp🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.66%EV -6.37%E -4.48%K -15.16%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.07%EV -12.48%E -2.08%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.27%EV -17.23%E -4.05%K -5.30%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-14 17:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.45%EV -7.69%E -5.49%K -19.22%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.04%EV -12.48%E -2.08%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -14.31%E -3.25%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-14 17:19
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.45%EV -7.69%E -5.49%K -19.22%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.04%EV -12.48%E -2.08%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -14.31%E -3.25%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-14 17:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.45%EV -7.69%E -5.49%K -19.22%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.04%EV -12.48%E -2.08%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -14.31%E -3.25%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-14 17:19
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.45%EV -7.69%E -5.49%K -19.22%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.04%EV -12.48%E -2.08%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -14.31%E -3.25%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-14 17:19
Betclic (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 65.38%EV -9.66%E -7.05%K -26.12%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.93%EV -12.48%E -2.08%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.69%EV -11.39%E -2.50%K -3.21%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-14 17:03
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.41%EV -10.32%E -7.59%K -28.68%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -12.48%E -2.08%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -12.36%E -2.75%K -3.53%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-14 17:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 65.65%EV -8.35%E -6.00%K -21.40%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.73%EV -15.40%E -2.65%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.62%EV -4.57%E -0.934%K -1.17%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-14 16:59
Winamax (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 65.28%EV -9.66%E -7.05%K -26.12%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.69%EV -16.85%E -2.96%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.03%EV -8.47%E -1.80%K -2.29%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-14 16:59
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.75%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.10%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.15%0.4%2026-08-14 17:24
Matchbook◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.75%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.10%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.15%0.4%2026-08-14 17:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.51%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.41%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.08%0.8%2026-08-14 17:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 67.66%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.00%1.2%2026-08-14 17:24
Smarkets◎1.46I 68.49%NM 67.41%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.67%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.93%1.6%2026-08-14 17:24