L’École des cotes

Hartberg v Sturm Graz

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-10 15:00 UTC

Score final : Hartberg 2–4 Sturm Graz

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

47 opérateurs (14 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Hartberg (Local)

Prévision 21.91%4.56cote équitable
EV -0.538%
Avantage -0.118%
Kelly -0.152%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.54

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
20.88%21.95%21.91%23.89%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.704.064.004.5427.03%24.61%25.00%22.03%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Sturm Graz (Visiteur)

Prévision 53.05%1.88cote équitable
EV -1.85%
Avantage -0.999%
Kelly -2.18%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.85

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
49.52%53.00%53.04%54.41%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.651.761.751.8560.61%56.87%57.14%54.05%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 25.04%3.99cote équitable
EV -2.10%
Avantage -0.538%
Kelly -0.723%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.91

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.33%25.05%25.05%27.64%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.103.613.603.9132.26%27.73%27.78%25.58%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (47 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle4.54I 22.03%NM 21.09%EV -0.538%E -0.118%K -0.152%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.41%EV -6.62%E -3.76%K -8.72%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.49%EV -2.10%E -0.538%K -0.723%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-09 17:24
Coolbet4.51I 22.17%NM 21.11%EV -1.19%E -0.265%K -0.340%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.49%EV -5.56%E -3.13%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -6.11%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-07 21:59
Betsson4.45I 22.47%NM 20.88%EV -2.51%E -0.564%K -0.727%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%EV -8.75%E -5.08%K -12.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -7.36%E -1.99%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-10 03:00
NordicBet4.45I 22.47%NM 20.88%EV -2.51%E -0.564%K -0.727%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%EV -8.75%E -5.08%K -12.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -7.36%E -1.99%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-10 02:59
1xBet4.42I 22.62%NM 21.21%EV -3.17%E -0.716%K -0.926%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -7.15%E -4.09%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.21%EV -6.86%E -1.84%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-10 03:09
FanDuel4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -3.60%E -0.819%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.39%EV -9.28%E -5.42%K -13.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -4.86%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-08 18:20
DraftKings4.30I 23.26%NM 21.93%EV -5.80%E -1.35%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.26%EV -6.09%E -3.44%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.81%EV -4.86%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-09 15:05
BetOnline.ag4.30I 23.26%NM 21.93%EV -5.80%E -1.35%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.26%EV -6.09%E -3.44%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.81%EV -4.86%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-09 15:04
LowVig.ag4.30I 23.26%NM 21.93%EV -5.80%E -1.35%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.26%EV -6.09%E -3.44%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.81%EV -4.86%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-09 15:05
Unibet (UK)4.25I 23.53%NM 22.12%EV -6.89%E -1.62%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.81%EV -5.56%E -3.13%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.07%EV -6.11%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-09 11:09
Bovada4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -7.99%E -1.90%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.13%EV -6.62%E -3.76%K -8.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -4.86%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 15:02
Betway4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -7.99%E -1.90%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -7.15%E -4.09%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -6.11%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-10 02:59
Bet Right4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -7.99%E -1.90%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -7.15%E -4.09%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.87%E -2.74%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-08 18:15
888sport4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -7.99%E -1.90%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -7.15%E -4.09%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.87%E -2.74%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 15:09
Mr Green (SE)4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -7.99%E -1.90%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -7.15%E -4.09%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.87%E -2.74%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 15:10
888sport (SE)4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -7.99%E -1.90%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -7.15%E -4.09%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.87%E -2.74%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 15:09
William Hill4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -7.99%E -1.90%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -7.15%E -4.09%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.87%E -2.74%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 15:10
PlayUp4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -7.99%E -1.90%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.28%EV -9.81%E -5.77%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -9.87%E -2.74%K -3.79%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-10 03:00
Betclic (FR)4.15I 24.10%NM 21.95%EV -9.08%E -2.19%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.96%EV -8.75%E -5.08%K -12.15%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 25.09%EV -9.11%E -2.51%K -3.47%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-10 03:07
BetMGM4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55%EV -10.18%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.13%EV -7.68%E -4.42%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -4.86%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-08 18:14
theScore Bet4.10I 24.39%NM 22.52%EV -10.18%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.17%EV -6.09%E -3.44%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.30%EV -8.61%E -2.36%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-09 13:35
Suprabets4.10I 24.39%NM 21.78%EV -10.18%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 53.14%EV -10.87%E -6.47%K -15.98%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 25.08%EV -10.87%E -3.05%K -4.24%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-09 15:25
Sky Bet4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -12.37%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -9.81%E -5.77%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -12.37%E -3.53%K -4.95%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-08 18:14
BoyleSports4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -12.37%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -9.81%E -5.77%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -12.37%E -3.53%K -4.95%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-07 21:30
SportsBet4.00I 25.00%NM 21.97%EV -12.37%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 52.93%EV -11.93%E -7.19%K -18.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.10%EV -12.37%E -3.53%K -4.95%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-08 18:14
Unibet (FR)4.00I 25.00%NM 21.90%EV -12.37%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 53.08%EV -12.46%E -7.55%K -19.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.02%EV -12.37%E -3.53%K -4.95%G +0.000%14.2%2026-05-10 03:04
Unibet3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -14.56%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.11%EV -1.85%E -0.999%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.12%EV -11.12%E -3.13%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-08 14:39
Grosvenor3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -14.56%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.11%EV -1.85%E -0.999%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.12%EV -11.12%E -3.13%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-08 14:39
Unibet (SE)3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -14.56%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.11%EV -1.85%E -0.999%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.12%EV -11.12%E -3.13%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-08 14:40
BetRivers3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -14.56%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.11%EV -1.85%E -0.999%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.12%EV -11.12%E -3.13%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-08 14:40
Unibet (NL)3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -14.56%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.11%EV -1.85%E -0.999%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.12%EV -11.12%E -3.13%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-08 14:40
TABtouch3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -14.56%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.11%EV -1.85%E -0.999%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.12%EV -11.12%E -3.13%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-08 14:39
Casumo3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -14.56%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.11%EV -1.85%E -0.999%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.12%EV -11.12%E -3.13%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-08 14:39
ATG (SE)3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -14.56%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.11%EV -1.85%E -0.999%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.12%EV -11.12%E -3.13%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-08 14:39
Svenska Spel3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -14.56%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.11%EV -1.85%E -0.999%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.12%EV -11.12%E -3.13%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-08 14:40
Winamax (DE)3.90I 25.64%NM 22.92%EV -14.56%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.59%EV -9.81%E -5.77%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -8.61%E -2.36%K -3.25%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-09 11:09
Neds3.90I 25.64%NM 22.84%EV -14.56%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.41%EV -9.81%E -5.77%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -9.87%E -2.74%K -3.79%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-08 18:14
Ladbrokes (UK)3.90I 25.64%NM 22.84%EV -14.56%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.41%EV -9.81%E -5.77%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -9.87%E -2.74%K -3.79%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-08 18:14
Coral3.90I 25.64%NM 22.84%EV -14.56%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.41%EV -9.81%E -5.77%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -9.87%E -2.74%K -3.79%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-08 18:09
Ladbrokes (AU)3.90I 25.64%NM 22.84%EV -14.56%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.41%EV -9.81%E -5.77%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -9.87%E -2.74%K -3.79%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-08 18:15
LiveScore Bet3.80I 26.32%NM 23.89%EV -16.75%E -4.41%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.16%EV -3.97%E -2.19%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -12.37%E -3.53%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-08 14:39
Virgin Bet3.80I 26.32%NM 23.89%EV -16.75%E -4.41%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.16%EV -3.97%E -2.19%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -12.37%E -3.53%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-08 14:40
LeoVegas (SE)3.80I 26.32%NM 23.89%EV -16.75%E -4.41%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.16%EV -3.97%E -2.19%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -12.37%E -3.53%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-08 14:39
LeoVegas3.80I 26.32%NM 23.89%EV -16.75%E -4.41%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.16%EV -3.97%E -2.19%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -12.37%E -3.53%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-08 14:39
Winamax (FR)3.75I 26.67%NM 23.09%EV -17.84%E -4.76%K -6.49%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 52.17%EV -11.93%E -7.19%K -18.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.74%EV -12.37%E -3.53%K -4.95%G +0.000%15.5%2026-05-09 11:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.75I 26.67%NM 22.85%EV -17.84%E -4.76%K -6.49%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 49.52%EV -8.22%E -4.75%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.64%EV -22.38%E -7.22%K -10.66%G +0.000%16.7%2026-05-10 00:14
PMU (FR)3.70I 27.03%NM 23.80%EV -18.94%E -5.12%K -7.01%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.31%EV -7.15%E -4.09%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.89%EV -14.87%E -4.37%K -6.20%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-08 14:39
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (4)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.80I 20.83%NM 20.42%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.45%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.13%2.0%2026-05-10 03:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.80I 20.83%NM 20.42%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.45%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.13%2.0%2026-05-10 03:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.80I 20.83%NM 20.42%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.45%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.13%2.0%2026-05-10 03:09
Smarkets4.00I 25.00%NM 22.93%1.79I 55.87%NM 51.24%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.83%9.0%2026-05-10 03:05