La escuela de los momios

Austria Wien v Rapid Wien

Inicio: 2026-04-12 15:00 UTC

Final: Austria Wien 1–1 Rapid Wien

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

48 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Austria Wien (Local)

Predicción 35.56%2.81momio equitativo
EV -1.51%
Ventaja -0.545%
Kelly -0.853%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.77

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.83%35.84%35.58%39.66%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.202.482.502.7745.45%40.37%40.00%36.10%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Rapid Wien (Visitante)

Predicción 32.96%3.03momio equitativo
EV -1.12%
Ventaja -0.373%
Kelly -0.560%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.17%32.89%32.99%33.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.602.812.823.0038.46%35.62%35.46%33.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 31.48%3.18momio equitativo
EV +0.748%
Ventaja +0.234%
Kelly +0.340%
Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.61%31.27%31.43%32.65%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.753.003.003.2036.36%33.35%33.33%31.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (48 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
FanDuel2.50I 40.00%NM 37.62%EV -11.11%E -4.44%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -6.06%E -2.13%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV +0.748%E +0.234%K +0.340%G +0.003%6.3%2026-04-12 14:30
Casumo2.32I 43.10%NM 39.52%EV -17.51%E -7.55%K -13.26%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.83%EV -5.07%E -1.76%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.65%EV +0.748%E +0.234%K +0.340%G +0.003%9.1%2026-04-12 08:25
Grosvenor2.32I 43.10%NM 39.52%EV -17.51%E -7.55%K -13.26%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.83%EV -5.07%E -1.76%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.65%EV +0.748%E +0.234%K +0.340%G +0.003%9.1%2026-04-12 08:25
BetRivers2.32I 43.10%NM 39.52%EV -17.51%E -7.55%K -13.26%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.83%EV -5.07%E -1.76%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.65%EV +0.748%E +0.234%K +0.340%G +0.003%9.1%2026-04-12 08:25
Unibet (SE)2.32I 43.10%NM 39.52%EV -17.51%E -7.55%K -13.26%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.83%EV -5.07%E -1.76%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.65%EV +0.748%E +0.234%K +0.340%G +0.003%9.1%2026-04-12 08:25
Unibet2.32I 43.10%NM 39.52%EV -17.51%E -7.55%K -13.26%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.83%EV -5.07%E -1.76%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.65%EV +0.748%E +0.234%K +0.340%G +0.003%9.1%2026-04-12 08:24
TABtouch2.32I 43.10%NM 39.52%EV -17.51%E -7.55%K -13.26%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.83%EV -5.07%E -1.76%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.65%EV +0.748%E +0.234%K +0.340%G +0.003%9.1%2026-04-12 08:24
Unibet (NL)2.32I 43.10%NM 39.52%EV -17.51%E -7.55%K -13.26%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.83%EV -5.07%E -1.76%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.65%EV +0.748%E +0.234%K +0.340%G +0.003%9.1%2026-04-12 08:24
Svenska Spel2.32I 43.10%NM 39.52%EV -17.51%E -7.55%K -13.26%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.83%EV -5.07%E -1.76%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.65%EV +0.748%E +0.234%K +0.340%G +0.003%9.1%2026-04-12 08:24
ATG (SE)2.32I 43.10%NM 39.52%EV -17.51%E -7.55%K -13.26%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.83%EV -5.07%E -1.76%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.65%EV +0.748%E +0.234%K +0.340%G +0.003%9.1%2026-04-12 08:24
Betr (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.44%EV -11.11%E -4.44%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -6.06%E -2.13%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -0.827%E -0.262%K -0.384%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 14:30
LiveScore Bet2.28I 43.86%NM 39.62%EV -18.93%E -8.30%K -14.79%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.70%EV -6.06%E -2.13%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.68%EV -0.827%E -0.262%K -0.384%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-12 08:25
LeoVegas2.28I 43.86%NM 39.62%EV -18.93%E -8.30%K -14.79%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.70%EV -6.06%E -2.13%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.68%EV -0.827%E -0.262%K -0.384%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-12 08:24
Virgin Bet2.28I 43.86%NM 39.62%EV -18.93%E -8.30%K -14.79%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.70%EV -6.06%E -2.13%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.68%EV -0.827%E -0.262%K -0.384%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-12 08:25
LeoVegas (SE)2.28I 43.86%NM 39.62%EV -18.93%E -8.30%K -14.79%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.70%EV -6.06%E -2.13%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.68%EV -0.827%E -0.262%K -0.384%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-12 08:24
Bovada2.45I 40.82%NM 38.17%EV -12.89%E -5.26%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -1.12%E -0.373%K -0.560%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -3.97%E -1.30%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 07:53
Bet Right2.45I 40.82%NM 37.34%EV -12.89%E -5.26%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.67%EV -7.71%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.99%EV -3.97%E -1.30%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-12 14:30
PMU (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 39.66%EV -21.78%E -9.90%K -18.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.73%EV -9.36%E -3.40%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.61%EV -3.97%E -1.30%K -1.94%G +0.000%14.6%2026-04-12 08:25
Pinnacle2.77I 36.10%NM 34.98%EV -1.51%E -0.545%K -0.853%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.73%EV -2.44%E -0.824%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.29%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-12 14:30
DraftKings2.65I 37.74%NM 35.55%EV -5.78%E -2.18%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -6.06%E -2.13%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 14:30
Unibet (UK)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.34%EV -5.78%E -2.18%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.45%EV -7.71%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 14:29
theScore Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 35.78%EV -7.55%E -2.91%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.22%EV -7.71%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-12 14:30
BetMGM2.60I 38.46%NM 35.78%EV -7.55%E -2.91%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.22%EV -7.71%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-12 14:30
Winamax (DE)2.55I 39.22%NM 35.79%EV -9.33%E -3.66%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.80%EV -11.01%E -4.08%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-12 14:30
Sky Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 37.39%EV -15.38%E -6.46%K -11.14%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.95%EV -11.01%E -4.08%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.77%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-12 14:30
Coolbet2.73I 36.63%NM 34.88%EV -2.93%E -1.07%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.84%EV -4.42%E -1.52%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -7.12%E -2.41%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 14:30
1xBet2.62I 38.17%NM 35.58%EV -6.84%E -2.61%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 32.82%EV -6.39%E -2.25%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.60%EV -7.12%E -2.41%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 14:30
Betclic (FR)2.53I 39.53%NM 35.91%EV -10.04%E -3.97%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 33.28%EV -10.02%E -3.67%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.80%EV -7.12%E -2.41%K -3.65%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-12 14:30
Unibet (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 36.75%EV -12.89%E -5.26%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.74%EV -9.36%E -3.40%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.52%EV -7.12%E -2.41%K -3.65%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-12 14:29
Betsson2.62I 38.17%NM 35.63%EV -6.84%E -2.61%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.41%EV -5.07%E -1.76%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.97%EV -8.07%E -2.76%K -4.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-12 14:30
NordicBet2.62I 38.17%NM 35.63%EV -6.84%E -2.61%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.41%EV -5.07%E -1.76%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.97%EV -8.07%E -2.76%K -4.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-12 14:30
Betway2.62I 38.17%NM 35.22%EV -6.84%E -2.61%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.96%EV -7.71%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -8.70%E -3.00%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-12 14:30
Suprabets2.55I 39.22%NM 35.67%EV -9.33%E -3.66%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 32.96%EV -9.03%E -3.27%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.37%EV -8.70%E -3.00%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-12 14:30
Neds2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -11.11%E -4.44%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.21%EV -11.01%E -4.08%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -8.70%E -3.00%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-12 14:30
Ladbrokes (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -11.11%E -4.44%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.21%EV -11.01%E -4.08%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -8.70%E -3.00%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-12 14:30
Ladbrokes (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -11.11%E -4.44%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.21%EV -11.01%E -4.08%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -8.70%E -3.00%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-12 14:30
Coral2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -11.11%E -4.44%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.21%EV -11.01%E -4.08%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -8.70%E -3.00%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-12 14:30
Winamax (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 35.88%EV -12.89%E -5.26%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.81%EV -14.30%E -5.50%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.31%EV -8.70%E -3.00%K -4.58%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-12 14:30
SportsBet2.30I 43.48%NM 37.44%EV -18.22%E -7.92%K -14.02%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 32.87%EV -13.64%E -5.21%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.69%EV -8.70%E -3.00%K -4.58%G +0.000%16.1%2026-04-12 14:30
PlayUp2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -9.33%E -3.66%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -9.36%E -3.40%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.71%EV -10.27%E -3.60%K -5.55%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-12 14:30
BetOnline.ag2.60I 38.46%NM 35.16%EV -7.55%E -2.91%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 32.19%EV -6.39%E -2.25%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.65%EV -11.85%E -4.23%K -6.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-12 14:30
LowVig.ag2.60I 38.46%NM 35.16%EV -7.55%E -2.91%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 32.19%EV -6.39%E -2.25%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.65%EV -11.85%E -4.23%K -6.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-12 14:30
William Hill2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -6.84%E -2.61%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.71%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -11.85%E -4.23%K -6.58%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-12 14:30
888sport2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -6.84%E -2.61%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.71%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -11.85%E -4.23%K -6.58%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-12 14:30
Mr Green (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -6.84%E -2.61%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.71%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -11.85%E -4.23%K -6.58%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-12 14:30
888sport (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -6.84%E -2.61%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.71%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -11.85%E -4.23%K -6.58%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-12 14:30
BoyleSports2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -11.11%E -4.44%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.85%EV -11.01%E -4.08%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -11.85%E -4.23%K -6.58%G +0.000%12.8%2026-04-12 14:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 36.40%EV -15.38%E -6.46%K -11.14%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.09%EV -11.01%E -4.08%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.51%EV -13.42%E -4.88%K -7.67%G +0.000%15.4%2026-04-12 14:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.86I 34.97%NM 34.62%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.45%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.94%1.0%2026-04-12 14:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.82I 35.46%NM 34.91%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.81%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.28%1.6%2026-04-12 14:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.82I 35.46%NM 34.91%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.81%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.28%1.6%2026-04-12 14:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.82I 35.46%NM 34.91%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.81%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.28%1.6%2026-04-12 14:30
Smarkets2.78I 35.97%NM 34.97%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.62%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.41%2.9%2026-04-12 14:30