Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Austria Lustenau v Ried

Inicio: 2026-08-02 15:00 UTC

Final: Austria Lustenau 1–1 Ried

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

50 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Austria Lustenau (Local)

Predicción 29.69%3.37momio equitativo
EV +2.12%
Ventaja +0.616%
Kelly +0.868%
Crecimiento +0.018%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.44

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.89%29.78%29.61%32.06%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.803.083.103.4435.71%32.45%32.26%29.07%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Ried (Visitante)

Predicción 40.96%2.44momio equitativo
EV -3.74%
Ventaja -1.59%
Kelly -2.77%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.89%41.00%41.00%43.21%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.102.242.252.3547.62%44.67%44.44%42.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 29.35%3.41momio equitativo
EV -0.199%
Ventaja -0.059%
Kelly -0.083%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.54%29.22%29.38%30.29%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.953.133.153.4033.90%31.92%31.75%29.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Austria Lustenau (Local): 29.69%; Ried (Visitante): 40.96%; Empate: 29.35%. Para Austria Lustenau (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.37. 4 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.44, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.12%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯3.44I 29.07%NM 27.89%EV +2.12%E +0.616%K +0.868%G +0.018%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.21%EV -9.07%E -4.08%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.90%EV -2.55%E -0.767%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-02 14:54
LowVig.ag🎯3.39I 29.50%NM 28.38%EV +0.634%E +0.187%K +0.265%G +0.002%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.01%EV -6.20%E -2.71%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.60%EV -4.60%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-02 14:45
BetOnline.ag🎯3.39I 29.50%NM 28.38%EV +0.634%E +0.187%K +0.265%G +0.002%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.01%EV -6.20%E -2.71%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.60%EV -4.60%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-02 14:45
Pinnacle🎯3.37I 29.67%NM 28.55%EV +0.040%E +0.012%K +0.017%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.84%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.61%EV -4.60%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-02 14:50
DraftKings🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -3.52%E -1.08%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.94%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -4.60%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-02 14:45
FanDuel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -5.01%E -1.56%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-02 14:54
BetMGM🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -5.01%E -1.56%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-02 14:49
Bovada🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -5.01%E -1.56%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-02 14:49
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -5.01%E -1.56%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -9.89%E -4.49%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -3.13%E -0.950%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-02 14:55
Suprabets🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -5.01%E -1.56%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 41.54%EV -10.29%E -4.70%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 30.03%EV -11.06%E -3.65%K -5.45%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-02 14:45
NordicBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -6.49%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.05%EV -6.61%E -2.90%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-02 14:44
Betsson🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -6.49%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.05%EV -6.61%E -2.90%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-02 14:45
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -7.97%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -3.74%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-02 14:39
Fanatics🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -7.97%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -9.01%E -2.90%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-02 14:39
Casumo🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.97%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-02 14:39
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.97%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-02 14:40
TABtouch🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.97%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-02 14:40
Unibet (NL)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.97%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-02 14:40
BetRivers🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.97%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-02 14:39
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.97%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-02 14:39
Grosvenor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.97%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-02 14:39
Svenska Spel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.97%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-02 14:40
ATG (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.97%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-02 14:39
Betway🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -7.97%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -9.89%E -4.49%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -9.01%E -2.90%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-02 14:55
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.97%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -11.94%E -3.98%K -5.97%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-02 14:55
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.97%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -11.94%E -3.98%K -5.97%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-02 14:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.97%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -11.94%E -3.98%K -5.97%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-02 14:49
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.97%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -11.94%E -3.98%K -5.97%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-02 14:54
theScore Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -9.46%E -3.10%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.39%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-02 14:40
Virgin Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.67%EV -9.46%E -3.10%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.14%EV -9.89%E -4.49%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -9.01%E -2.90%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-02 14:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.67%EV -9.46%E -3.10%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.14%EV -9.89%E -4.49%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -9.01%E -2.90%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-02 14:39
LiveScore Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.67%EV -9.46%E -3.10%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.14%EV -9.89%E -4.49%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -9.01%E -2.90%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-02 14:39
Betclic (FR)🎯3.03I 33.00%NM 29.35%EV -10.05%E -3.32%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.80%EV -10.70%E -4.91%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 29.85%EV -12.53%E -4.20%K -6.33%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-02 14:45
Codere (IT)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 40.18%EV -7.02%E -3.09%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -9.01%E -2.90%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-02 14:40
PlayUp🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.01%E -2.90%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-02 14:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -9.89%E -4.49%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -11.94%E -3.98%K -5.97%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-02 14:50
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -9.89%E -4.49%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -11.94%E -3.98%K -5.97%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-02 14:50
Neds🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -9.89%E -4.49%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -11.94%E -3.98%K -5.97%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-02 14:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -9.89%E -4.49%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -11.94%E -3.98%K -5.97%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-02 14:50
Sky Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -11.93%E -5.55%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -11.94%E -3.98%K -5.97%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-02 14:55
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.02%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.46%EV -13.98%E -6.66%K -12.71%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.52%EV -13.41%E -4.55%K -6.88%G +0.000%14.9%2026-08-02 14:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.02%EV -12.43%E -4.21%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -3.74%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78%EV -0.199%E -0.059%K -0.083%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-02 14:55
Coolbet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -12.43%E -4.21%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.71%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -0.199%E -0.059%K -0.083%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-02 14:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -12.43%E -4.21%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.55%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.51%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-02 14:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.75%EV -12.43%E -4.21%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.00%EV -12.34%E -5.77%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.25%EV -11.94%E -3.98%K -5.97%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-02 14:40
Bet Right🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -13.91%E -4.80%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -4.60%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-02 14:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -13.91%E -4.80%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -9.89%E -4.49%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -9.01%E -2.90%K -4.29%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-02 14:39
Unibet (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -13.91%E -4.80%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.68%EV -11.93%E -5.55%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.16%EV -11.94%E -3.98%K -5.97%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-02 14:40
betfred_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.06%EV -16.88%E -6.03%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-02 14:54
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.49%EV -16.88%E -6.03%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.07%EV -9.89%E -4.49%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.44%EV -9.01%E -2.90%K -4.29%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-02 14:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.76%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.05%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.19%0.8%2026-08-02 14:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.76%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.05%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.19%0.8%2026-08-02 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.76%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.05%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.19%0.8%2026-08-02 14:55
Matchbook3.45I 28.99%NM 28.76%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.05%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.19%0.8%2026-08-02 14:55
Smarkets3.40I 29.41%NM 28.94%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.69%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.37%1.6%2026-08-02 14:55