Language:English
Perth Glory v Melbourne City
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Perth Glory (Local)
Prediction 24.95%4.01fair odd
EV +2.06%
Edge +0.503%
Kelly +0.665%
Growth +0.014%
assuming max odds 4.09
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.59%24.95%24.91%27.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.693.704.0929.41%27.08%27.03%24.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Melbourne City (Visit)
Prediction 47.81%2.09fair odd
EV -1.99%
Edge -0.970%
Kelly -1.89%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.30%47.83%47.76%49.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.941.952.0555.56%51.49%51.28%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.24%3.67fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -0.541%
Kelly -0.749%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.31%27.22%27.33%27.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.443.503.6032.26%29.04%28.57%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Perth Glory (Local): 24.95%; Melbourne City (Visit): 47.81%; Draw: 27.24%. For Perth Glory (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.01. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.09, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.06%.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.09I 24.45%NM 23.59%EV +2.06%E +0.503%K +0.665%G +0.014% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.47%EV -6.77%E -3.47%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.95%EV -2.49%E -0.696%K -0.966%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-22 02:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.09I 24.45%NM 23.59%EV +2.06%E +0.503%K +0.665%G +0.014% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.47%EV -6.77%E -3.47%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.95%EV -2.49%E -0.696%K -0.966%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-22 02:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.09I 24.45%NM 23.59%EV +2.06%E +0.503%K +0.665%G +0.014% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.47%EV -6.77%E -3.47%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.95%EV -2.49%E -0.696%K -0.966%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-22 02:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.93I 25.45%NM 24.62%EV -1.94%E -0.493%K -0.661%G +0.000% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 48.13%EV -3.90%E -1.94%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.25%EV -3.31%E -0.932%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-22 06:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.83I 26.11%NM 24.46%EV -4.43%E -1.16%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.54%EV -7.73%E -4.00%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 27.00%EV -5.49%E -1.58%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-22 06:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.18%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -6.77%E -3.47%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -4.67%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-22 06:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.18%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -6.77%E -3.47%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -4.67%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-22 06:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.18%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -6.77%E -3.47%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -4.67%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-22 05:39 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.18%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -6.77%E -3.47%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -4.67%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-22 05:39 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.18%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.99%EV -6.29%E -3.21%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -6.03%E -1.75%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-22 06:53 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -5.18%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.33%EV -7.73%E -4.00%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.12%EV -6.31%E -1.83%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-22 06:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.64%EV -6.43%E -1.71%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.90%EV -1.99%E -0.970%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.47%EV -4.67%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-22 06:35 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.12%EV -6.43%E -1.71%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.58%EV -5.33%E -2.69%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -6.03%E -1.75%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-22 06:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.43%E -1.71%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -6.77%E -3.47%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -4.67%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-22 06:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -6.43%E -1.71%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.27%EV -7.25%E -3.74%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -4.67%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-22 06:14 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -6.43%E -1.71%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.27%EV -7.25%E -3.74%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -4.67%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-22 06:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -6.43%E -1.71%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -6.77%E -3.47%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.39%E -2.17%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-22 06:10 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -6.43%E -1.71%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -6.77%E -3.47%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.39%E -2.17%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-22 06:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -7.68%E -2.07%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.08%EV -5.81%E -2.95%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.31%EV -1.95%E -0.541%K -0.749%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-21 16:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -7.68%E -2.07%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.16%EV -4.38%E -2.19%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%EV -6.03%E -1.75%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-22 06:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -7.68%E -2.07%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.23%EV -5.33%E -2.69%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -7.39%E -2.17%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-22 06:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -7.68%E -2.07%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -5.33%E -2.69%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -8.76%E -2.61%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-22 06:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -7.68%E -2.07%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -5.33%E -2.69%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -8.76%E -2.61%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-22 06:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -7.68%E -2.07%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -6.77%E -3.47%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -7.39%E -2.17%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-22 06:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -7.68%E -2.07%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.50%EV -8.68%E -4.55%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -4.67%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-22 06:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -7.68%E -2.07%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -6.77%E -3.47%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -10.12%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-22 06:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -7.68%E -2.07%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -6.77%E -3.47%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -10.12%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-22 06:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -7.68%E -2.07%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -6.77%E -3.47%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -10.12%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-22 06:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -7.68%E -2.07%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -6.77%E -3.47%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -10.12%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-22 06:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.64%EV -8.92%E -2.44%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.77%E -3.47%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -3.31%E -0.932%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-21 16:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.64%EV -8.92%E -2.44%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.77%E -3.47%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -3.31%E -0.932%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-21 16:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.64%EV -8.92%E -2.44%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.77%E -3.47%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -3.31%E -0.932%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-21 16:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -10.17%E -2.83%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -4.38%E -2.19%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.39%E -2.17%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-22 06:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -10.17%E -2.83%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.90%EV -7.73%E -4.00%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -4.67%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-21 16:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -10.17%E -2.83%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.90%EV -7.73%E -4.00%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -4.67%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-21 16:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -10.17%E -2.83%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.90%EV -7.73%E -4.00%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -4.67%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-21 16:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -10.17%E -2.83%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.90%EV -7.73%E -4.00%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -4.67%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-21 16:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -10.17%E -2.83%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.90%EV -7.73%E -4.00%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -4.67%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-21 16:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -10.17%E -2.83%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.90%EV -7.73%E -4.00%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -4.67%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-21 16:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -10.17%E -2.83%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.90%EV -7.73%E -4.00%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -4.67%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-21 16:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -10.17%E -2.83%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.73%EV -9.16%E -4.82%K -10.18%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -8.76%E -2.61%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-22 06:29 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -10.17%E -2.83%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 48.07%EV -11.07%E -5.95%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -10.12%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-03-22 06:14 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.03%EV -10.17%E -2.83%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.06%EV -13.94%E -7.74%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -15.57%E -5.02%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-03-22 06:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.79%EV -11.42%E -3.22%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.68%EV -8.20%E -4.27%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.53%EV -6.03%E -1.75%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-22 06:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -12.67%E -3.62%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.84%EV -10.12%E -5.38%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -7.39%E -2.17%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-03-21 16:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -12.67%E -3.62%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.84%EV -10.12%E -5.38%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -7.39%E -2.17%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-03-21 16:49 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.85%EV -12.67%E -3.62%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 47.53%EV -12.51%E -6.83%K -15.07%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.61%EV -14.20%E -4.51%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-03-22 06:54 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -13.91%E -4.03%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.49%EV -4.38%E -2.19%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.56%EV -4.67%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-22 06:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -15.16%E -4.46%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -4.38%E -2.19%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -4.67%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-22 06:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.92%EV -15.16%E -4.46%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 47.38%EV -11.07%E -5.95%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.70%EV -10.12%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-03-22 06:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.51% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.75% | 1.0% | 2026-03-22 06:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.51% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.75% | 1.0% | 2026-03-22 06:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.51% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.75% | 1.0% | 2026-03-22 06:54 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.05% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.30% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.65% | 1.4% | 2026-03-22 06:54 |
| Kalshi◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.01% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49% | 2.0% | 2026-03-22 06:54 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.76% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.78% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.46% | 3.5% | 2026-03-22 06:55 |