Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Newcastle Jets FC v Central Coast Mariners

Inicio: 2026-04-25 07:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

51 corredores (12 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Newcastle Jets FC (Local)

Predicción 63.59%1.57momio equitativo
EV -2.70%
Ventaja -1.77%
Kelly -5.10%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.53

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
61.35%63.46%63.67%64.72%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.361.451.451.5373.53%68.78%68.97%65.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Central Coast Mariners (Visitante)

Predicción 17.54%5.70momio equitativo
EV -3.53%
Ventaja -0.643%
Kelly -0.785%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.62%17.63%17.47%19.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.505.285.405.5022.22%18.96%18.52%18.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 18.87%5.30momio equitativo
EV -0.949%
Ventaja -0.181%
Kelly -0.223%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.15%18.91%18.87%21.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.004.915.005.2525.00%20.36%20.00%19.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Newcastle Jets FC (Local): 63.59%; Central Coast Mariners (Visitante): 17.54%; Empate: 18.87%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.30. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 5.25, con un valor esperado de -0.949%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (51 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.60%EV -2.70%E -1.77%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.24%EV -7.92%E -1.51%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.16%EV -5.67%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-24 03:49
Coolbet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.50%EV -4.61%E -3.07%K -9.22%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.64%EV -5.29%E -0.979%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.86%EV -4.72%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 10:04
TAB🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.95%EV -4.61%E -3.07%K -9.22%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.53%E -0.643%K -0.785%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.88%EV -10.38%E -2.19%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-22 07:09
GTbets🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.93%EV -4.61%E -3.07%K -9.22%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.81%EV -7.04%E -1.33%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.26%EV -7.55%E -1.54%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-22 17:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.61%E -3.07%K -9.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.75%EV -12.30%E -2.46%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.75%EV -5.67%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-24 03:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.61%E -3.07%K -9.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.75%EV -12.30%E -2.46%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.75%EV -5.67%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-24 03:50
Neds🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.61%E -3.07%K -9.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.75%EV -12.30%E -2.46%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.75%EV -5.67%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-24 03:50
BetMGM🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.02%EV -4.61%E -3.07%K -9.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -12.30%E -2.46%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.38%EV -9.44%E -1.97%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-24 03:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.86%EV -5.25%E -3.52%K -10.70%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.30%EV -3.53%E -0.643%K -0.785%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.84%EV -4.72%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-20 14:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.86%EV -5.25%E -3.52%K -10.70%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.30%EV -3.53%E -0.643%K -0.785%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.84%EV -4.72%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-20 14:50
DraftKings🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.98%EV -5.25%E -3.52%K -10.70%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.87%EV -7.92%E -1.51%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.15%EV -7.55%E -1.54%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-22 10:35
NordicBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.78%EV -5.25%E -3.52%K -10.70%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.32%EV -5.29%E -0.979%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.90%EV -11.33%E -2.41%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-21 09:15
Betsson🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.78%EV -5.25%E -3.52%K -10.70%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.32%EV -5.29%E -0.979%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.90%EV -11.33%E -2.41%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-21 09:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.47%EV -5.88%E -3.97%K -12.25%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.35%EV -3.53%E -0.643%K -0.785%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.18%EV -0.949%E -0.181%K -0.223%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-21 09:15
Fanatics🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.47%EV -5.88%E -3.97%K -12.25%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.35%EV -3.53%E -0.643%K -0.785%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.18%EV -0.949%E -0.181%K -0.223%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-21 09:20
Pinnacle🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.01%EV -5.88%E -3.97%K -12.25%G +0.000%5.44I 18.38%NM 17.41%EV -4.59%E -0.843%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.58%EV -3.78%E -0.741%K -0.922%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-24 02:05
Codere (IT)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.69%EV -5.88%E -3.97%K -12.25%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.46%EV -5.29%E -0.979%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -5.67%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-22 19:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.38%EV -5.88%E -3.97%K -12.25%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.87%EV -7.92%E -1.51%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -5.67%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-22 14:29
PlayUp🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.86%EV -5.88%E -3.97%K -12.25%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -3.53%E -0.643%K -0.785%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.22%EV -13.21%E -2.87%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-22 07:10
Bovada🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.97%EV -6.52%E -4.43%K -13.87%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.41%EV -5.29%E -0.979%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.62%EV -4.72%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-24 02:06
BetUS🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.97%EV -6.52%E -4.43%K -13.87%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.41%EV -5.29%E -0.979%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.62%EV -4.72%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-24 02:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.90%EV -7.15%E -4.90%K -15.55%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.44%EV -6.17%E -1.15%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.66%EV -5.67%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-24 01:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.60%EV -7.79%E -5.37%K -17.31%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.03%EV -3.53%E -0.643%K -0.785%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.37%EV -3.78%E -0.741%K -0.922%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 08:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.60%EV -7.79%E -5.37%K -17.31%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.03%EV -3.53%E -0.643%K -0.785%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.37%EV -3.78%E -0.741%K -0.922%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 08:19
LeoVegas🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.60%EV -7.79%E -5.37%K -17.31%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.03%EV -3.53%E -0.643%K -0.785%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.37%EV -3.78%E -0.741%K -0.922%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 08:19
Unibet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.40%EV -7.79%E -5.37%K -17.31%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.29%EV -5.29%E -0.979%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.31%EV -3.78%E -0.741%K -0.922%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 08:34
Everygame🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.85%EV -7.79%E -5.37%K -17.31%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.63%EV -7.92%E -1.51%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.52%EV -5.67%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-24 03:08
Bet Right🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.23%EV -7.79%E -5.37%K -17.31%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.46%EV -7.92%E -1.51%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.30%EV -10.38%E -2.19%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-21 13:20
SportsBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.52%EV -8.42%E -5.85%K -19.15%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.89%EV -3.53%E -0.643%K -0.785%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -5.67%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-21 09:15
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.52%EV -8.42%E -5.85%K -19.15%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.89%EV -3.53%E -0.643%K -0.785%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -5.67%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-21 09:13
Betr (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.52%EV -8.42%E -5.85%K -19.15%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.89%EV -3.53%E -0.643%K -0.785%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -5.67%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-21 09:15
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -8.42%E -5.85%K -19.15%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -3.53%E -0.643%K -0.785%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -13.21%E -2.87%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-21 09:14
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.46%EV -8.42%E -5.85%K -19.15%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.99%EV -12.30%E -2.46%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -13.21%E -2.87%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-21 09:15
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.46%EV -8.42%E -5.85%K -19.15%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.99%EV -12.30%E -2.46%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -13.21%E -2.87%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-21 09:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.46%EV -8.42%E -5.85%K -19.15%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.99%EV -12.30%E -2.46%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -13.21%E -2.87%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-21 09:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.46%EV -8.42%E -5.85%K -19.15%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.99%EV -12.30%E -2.46%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -13.21%E -2.87%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-21 09:15
betPARX🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.72%EV -9.06%E -6.34%K -21.07%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.14%EV -5.29%E -0.979%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.15%EV -3.78%E -0.741%K -0.922%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 08:09
Svenska Spel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.72%EV -9.06%E -6.34%K -21.07%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.14%EV -5.29%E -0.979%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.15%EV -3.78%E -0.741%K -0.922%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 08:13
Casumo🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.72%EV -9.06%E -6.34%K -21.07%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.14%EV -5.29%E -0.979%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.15%EV -3.78%E -0.741%K -0.922%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 08:24
Unibet (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.72%EV -9.06%E -6.34%K -21.07%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.14%EV -5.29%E -0.979%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.15%EV -3.78%E -0.741%K -0.922%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 08:24
Grosvenor🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.72%EV -9.06%E -6.34%K -21.07%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.14%EV -5.29%E -0.979%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.15%EV -3.78%E -0.741%K -0.922%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 08:24
Unibet (NL)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.72%EV -9.06%E -6.34%K -21.07%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.14%EV -5.29%E -0.979%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.15%EV -3.78%E -0.741%K -0.922%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 08:25
TABtouch🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.72%EV -9.06%E -6.34%K -21.07%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.14%EV -5.29%E -0.979%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.15%EV -3.78%E -0.741%K -0.922%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 08:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.65%EV -9.06%E -6.34%K -21.07%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.06%EV -17.57%E -3.74%K -4.75%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.28%EV -7.55%E -1.54%K -1.94%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-22 14:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.42%EV -10.97%E -7.83%K -27.42%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.18%EV -7.92%E -1.51%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.40%EV -7.55%E -1.54%K -1.94%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-23 08:19
Virgin Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.42%EV -10.97%E -7.83%K -27.42%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.18%EV -7.92%E -1.51%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.40%EV -7.55%E -1.54%K -1.94%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-23 08:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.15%EV -10.97%E -7.83%K -27.42%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.04%EV -14.06%E -2.87%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.81%EV -11.33%E -2.41%K -3.06%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-23 07:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 61.90%EV -10.97%E -7.83%K -27.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.26%EV -21.07%E -4.68%K -6.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.84%EV -13.21%E -2.87%K -3.67%G +0.000%15.4%2026-04-22 14:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 61.35%EV -10.97%E -7.83%K -27.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.18%EV -12.30%E -2.46%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.47%EV -24.53%E -6.13%K -8.18%G +0.000%16.4%2026-04-21 09:15
NetBet (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 63.39%EV -12.88%E -9.40%K -34.80%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.72%EV -14.06%E -2.87%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.88%EV -13.21%E -2.87%K -3.67%G +0.000%15.1%2026-04-21 11:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.52%EV -13.51%E -9.94%K -37.53%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.20%EV -10.55%E -2.07%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.28%EV -9.44%E -1.97%K -2.48%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-23 08:19
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.54I 64.94%NM 63.84%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.25%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.91%1.7%2026-04-23 22:19
Kalshi1.52I 65.79%NM 64.65%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.67%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.67%1.8%2026-04-24 03:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.54I 64.94%NM 63.65%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.50%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.85%2.0%2026-04-24 03:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.54I 64.94%NM 63.65%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.50%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.85%2.0%2026-04-24 03:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.53I 65.36%NM 63.80%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.43%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.77%2.4%2026-04-23 21:44
Smarkets1.52I 65.79%NM 63.72%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.29%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.99%3.3%2026-04-23 21:44