Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Melbourne Victory v Central Coast Mariners

2026-11-01 04:00 UTC — A-League

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

61%

18%

21%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Melbourne Victory (Local)

Prediction 60.96%1.64fair odd

EV -7.96%

Edge -5.27%

Kelly -15.60%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

60.34%60.96%60.96%64.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.371.471.491.5172.99%68.20%67.11%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Central Coast Mariners (Visit)

Prediction 17.82%5.61fair odd

EV +3.37%

Edge +0.581%

Kelly +0.702%

Growth +0.024%

assuming max odds 5.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

16.46%17.82%17.82%18.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.705.165.005.8021.28%19.37%20.00%17.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.22%4.71fair odd

EV +3.99%

Edge +0.813%

Kelly +1.02%

Growth +0.041%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

19.37%21.22%21.22%21.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.154.364.204.9024.10%22.94%23.81%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Melbourne Victory (Local): 60.96%; Central Coast Mariners (Visit): 17.82%; Draw: 21.22%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.71. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.90, producing a positive expected value of +3.99%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Draw ▼	Margin	Updated
SportsBet🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.06%EV -9.18%E -6.16%K -18.73%G +0.000%	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.46%EV +3.37%E +0.581%K +0.702%G +0.024%	4.90I 20.41%NM 19.48%EV +3.99%E +0.813%K +1.02%G +0.041%	4.8%	2026-10-20 22:44
Paddy Power🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 63.90%EV -12.22%E -8.49%K -27.78%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -1.98%E -0.360%K -0.440%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV +0.803%E +0.169%K +0.214%G +0.002%	8.7%	2026-10-20 23:04
Marathon Bet🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 61.57%EV -7.96%E -5.27%K -15.60%G +0.000%	5.30I 18.87%NM 17.54%EV -5.54%E -1.05%K -1.29%G +0.000%	4.45I 22.47%NM 20.89%EV -5.56%E -1.25%K -1.61%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-10-20 23:05
picklebet_au🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 62.45%EV -10.39%E -7.07%K -22.12%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.69%EV -1.98%E -0.360%K -0.440%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -6.62%E -1.51%K -1.95%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-10-20 22:45
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 61.56%EV -12.83%E -8.97%K -29.84%G +0.000%	4.90I 20.41%NM 17.97%EV -12.67%E -2.59%K -3.25%G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26%NM 20.47%EV -8.75%E -2.03%K -2.65%G +0.000%	13.6%	2026-10-20 22:45
William Hill🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -8.57%E -5.71%K -17.13%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -10.89%E -2.18%K -2.72%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -10.87%E -2.59%K -3.40%G +0.000%	10.5%	2026-10-20 22:44
888sport🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -8.57%E -5.71%K -17.13%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -10.89%E -2.18%K -2.72%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -10.87%E -2.59%K -3.40%G +0.000%	10.5%	2026-10-20 22:45
888sport (SE)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -8.57%E -5.71%K -17.13%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -10.89%E -2.18%K -2.72%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -10.87%E -2.59%K -3.40%G +0.000%	10.5%	2026-10-20 22:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -8.57%E -5.71%K -17.13%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -10.89%E -2.18%K -2.72%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -10.87%E -2.59%K -3.40%G +0.000%	10.5%	2026-10-20 22:45
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 60.97%EV -13.44%E -9.47%K -32.01%G +0.000%	4.70I 21.28%NM 18.42%EV -16.24%E -3.45%K -4.39%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 20.61%EV -10.87%E -2.59%K -3.40%G +0.000%	15.5%	2026-10-20 22:45
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 62.55%EV -16.49%E -12.04%K -44.57%G +0.000%	5.10I 19.61%NM 16.80%EV -9.11%E -1.79%K -2.22%G +0.000%	4.15I 24.10%NM 20.65%EV -11.93%E -2.87%K -3.79%G +0.000%	16.7%	2026-10-20 22:45

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.