The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Talleres v Lanus

Kickoff: 2026-08-09 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Talleres (Local)

Prediction 39.20%2.55fair odd
EV -2.78%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.87%39.19%38.96%40.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.352.402.4846.51%42.63%41.67%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lanus (Visit)

Prediction 27.20%3.68fair odd
EV -3.44%
Edge -0.969%
Kelly -1.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.10%27.29%27.39%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.333.353.5533.33%30.03%29.85%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 33.60%2.98fair odd
EV -1.89%
Edge -0.649%
Kelly -0.987%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.98%33.52%33.65%34.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.752.752.9239.22%36.38%36.36%34.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Talleres (Local): 39.20%; Lanus (Visit): 27.20%; Draw: 33.60%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.98. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.92, with an expected value of -1.89%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.32%EV -2.78%E -1.12%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.87%EV -7.25%E -2.13%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.82%EV -5.59%E -1.99%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 15:44
Fanatics🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -3.95%E -1.61%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -7.52%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-01 20:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -3.95%E -1.61%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -7.52%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-01 20:05
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.04%EV -3.95%E -1.61%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -11.60%E -3.57%K -5.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.28%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-29 21:50
FanDuel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.87%EV -3.95%E -1.61%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -12.96%E -4.05%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-29 21:49
NordicBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -5.13%E -2.12%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.32%EV -8.88%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.49%EV -1.89%E -0.649%K -0.987%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 22:18
Betsson🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -5.13%E -2.12%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.32%EV -8.88%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.49%EV -1.89%E -0.649%K -0.987%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 22:18
Marathon Bet🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 38.73%EV -5.52%E -2.29%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -7.52%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 33.82%EV -7.27%E -2.63%K -4.13%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-03 14:19
Bovada🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -5.91%E -2.46%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -7.52%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-02 16:19
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -5.91%E -2.46%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -7.52%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-01 20:03
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -5.91%E -2.46%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -12.96%E -4.05%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-30 20:30
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -6.70%E -2.81%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -11.60%E -3.57%K -5.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.92%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-30 14:19
Codere (IT)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -9.05%E -3.90%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17%EV -3.44%E -0.969%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.78%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-29 21:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -9.83%E -4.28%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -4.80%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -7.61%E -2.77%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-02 20:04
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -9.83%E -4.28%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -4.80%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -9.29%E -3.44%K -5.46%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-03 11:19
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -9.83%E -4.28%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -11.60%E -3.57%K -5.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -5.93%E -2.12%K -3.29%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-03 14:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.89%EV -13.75%E -6.25%K -11.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.00%EV -11.60%E -3.57%K -5.16%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.11%EV -10.97%E -4.14%K -6.65%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-29 21:49
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.53%EV -13.75%E -6.25%K -11.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.36%EV -10.24%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.11%EV -14.33%E -5.62%K -9.24%G +0.000%15.0%2026-07-29 21:49
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.24%EV -13.75%E -6.25%K -11.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.78%EV -18.40%E -6.13%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.98%EV -9.29%E -3.44%K -5.46%G +0.000%15.8%2026-08-03 14:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.34%EV -14.54%E -6.67%K -12.32%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 26.10%EV -8.34%E -2.47%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.57%EV -11.97%E -4.57%K -7.39%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-01 20:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.02%EV -15.71%E -7.31%K -13.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.89%EV -12.96%E -4.05%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.09%EV -12.65%E -4.86%K -7.90%G +0.000%16.2%2026-07-29 21:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.18I 45.87%NM 39.38%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.83%2.54I 39.37%NM 33.80%16.5%2026-07-30 20:30

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.