The School of Odds
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Talleres v Lanus

2026-08-09 20:00 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Talleres (Local)

Prediction 38.78%2.58fair odd
EV -4.98%
Edge -2.03%
Kelly -3.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.55%38.78%38.39%40.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.132.322.322.4546.95%43.17%43.10%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lanus (Visit)

Prediction 27.90%3.58fair odd
EV -0.959%
Edge -0.270%
Kelly -0.376%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.09%27.90%28.50%29.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.273.253.5533.33%30.56%30.77%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 33.32%3.00fair odd
EV -5.04%
Edge -1.77%
Kelly -2.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.04%33.32%33.10%34.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.702.702.8539.22%37.09%37.04%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Fanatics2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -4.98%E -2.03%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -7.93%E -2.40%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -5.04%E -1.77%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-29 22:14
SportsBet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.04%EV -4.98%E -2.03%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -9.33%E -2.87%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.28%EV -6.71%E -2.40%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-29 21:50
FanDuel2.45I 40.82%NM 37.87%EV -4.98%E -2.03%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -10.72%E -3.35%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -6.71%E -2.40%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-29 21:49
1xBet2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.76%E -2.37%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.84%EV -1.24%E -0.350%K -0.487%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.06%EV -7.04%E -2.52%K -3.93%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-29 21:50
Paddy Power2.40I 41.67%NM 37.55%EV -6.92%E -2.88%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.07%EV -13.51%E -4.36%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.38%EV -10.04%E -3.72%K -5.91%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-29 21:50
Codere (IT)2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -10.03%E -4.32%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17%EV -0.959%E -0.270%K -0.376%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.78%EV -8.37%E -3.04%K -4.78%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-29 21:50
Sky Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 37.72%EV -10.80%E -4.70%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.92%EV -16.30%E -5.43%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.37%EV -13.37%E -5.14%K -8.36%G +0.000%15.3%2026-07-29 21:50
Winamax (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 39.89%EV -14.68%E -6.67%K -12.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.00%EV -9.33%E -2.87%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.11%EV -11.70%E -4.42%K -7.09%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-29 21:49
Unibet (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 39.53%EV -14.68%E -6.67%K -12.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.36%EV -7.93%E -2.40%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.11%EV -15.04%E -5.90%K -9.70%G +0.000%15.0%2026-07-29 21:49
Winamax (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 40.02%EV -16.62%E -7.73%K -14.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.89%EV -10.72%E -3.35%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.09%EV -13.37%E -5.14%K -8.36%G +0.000%16.2%2026-07-29 21:50
Betclic (FR)2.13I 46.95%NM 40.42%EV -17.39%E -8.17%K -15.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.09%EV -7.93%E -2.40%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 33.50%EV -14.37%E -5.59%K -9.15%G +0.000%16.2%2026-07-29 21:48
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.