Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Talleres v Deportivo Riestra

Kickoff: 2026-04-19 23:30 UTC

Final: Talleres 2–0 Deportivo Riestra

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Talleres (Local)

Prediction 56.69%1.76fair odd
EV +0.341%
Edge +0.193%
Kelly +0.443%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.39%56.49%56.77%57.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.651.651.7764.10%60.57%60.61%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Deportivo Riestra (Visit)

Prediction 14.81%6.75fair odd
EV +2.07%
Edge +0.300%
Kelly +0.351%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 6.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.03%15.02%14.69%17.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.106.036.006.8919.61%16.59%16.67%14.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.50%3.51fair odd
EV -0.835%
Edge -0.240%
Kelly -0.337%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.24%28.49%28.54%30.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.233.253.4834.72%30.94%30.77%28.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Talleres (Local): 56.69%; Deportivo Riestra (Visit): 14.81%; Draw: 28.50%. For Deportivo Riestra (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.75. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.89, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.07%.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.54%EV -4.76%E -2.83%K -7.00%G +0.000%6.89I 14.51%NM 14.03%EV +2.07%E +0.300%K +0.351%G +0.007%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.43%EV -3.11%E -0.916%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-19 23:25
1xBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.93%EV -5.89%E -3.55%K -8.93%G +0.000%6.66I 15.02%NM 14.44%EV -1.34%E -0.201%K -0.236%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.63%EV -0.835%E -0.240%K -0.337%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-19 23:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.82%EV -4.76%E -2.83%K -7.00%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.69%EV -3.71%E -0.570%K -0.674%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.49%EV -4.54%E -1.36%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-19 23:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.82%EV -4.76%E -2.83%K -7.00%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.69%EV -3.71%E -0.570%K -0.674%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.49%EV -4.54%E -1.36%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-19 23:05
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.72%EV -5.33%E -3.19%K -7.95%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.57%EV -3.71%E -0.570%K -0.674%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -5.96%E -1.81%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-19 23:24
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.26%EV -6.46%E -3.92%K -9.94%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.54%EV -3.71%E -0.570%K -0.674%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.20%EV -4.54%E -1.36%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-19 23:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.47%EV -5.33%E -3.19%K -7.95%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -3.71%E -0.570%K -0.674%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.02%EV -7.39%E -2.27%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-19 23:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.77%EV -6.46%E -3.92%K -9.94%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -3.71%E -0.570%K -0.674%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.82%EV -7.39%E -2.27%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-19 23:20
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.47%EV -8.16%E -5.04%K -13.16%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.32%EV -3.71%E -0.570%K -0.674%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.21%EV -5.96%E -1.81%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-19 23:24
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.22%EV -8.16%E -5.04%K -13.16%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -3.71%E -0.570%K -0.674%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.52%EV -7.39%E -2.27%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-19 23:25
Everygame🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.22%EV -8.16%E -5.04%K -13.16%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -3.71%E -0.570%K -0.674%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.52%EV -7.39%E -2.27%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-19 23:20
SportsBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.37%EV -8.73%E -5.42%K -14.31%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.21%EV -3.71%E -0.570%K -0.674%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.42%EV -7.39%E -2.27%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-19 23:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.19%EV -7.60%E -4.66%K -12.06%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV -5.19%E -0.811%K -0.961%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -5.96%E -1.81%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-19 23:25
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.89%EV -5.33%E -3.19%K -7.95%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.94%EV -7.41%E -1.19%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -8.81%E -2.75%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 23:20
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.62%EV -6.46%E -3.92%K -9.94%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.07%EV -8.15%E -1.31%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -5.96%E -1.81%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 23:15
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.62%EV -6.46%E -3.92%K -9.94%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.07%EV -8.15%E -1.31%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -5.96%E -1.81%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 23:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.54%EV -10.43%E -6.60%K -17.98%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.64%EV -9.63%E -1.58%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.82%EV -11.66%E -3.76%K -5.55%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-19 23:24
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.04%EV -5.33%E -3.19%K -7.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -11.11%E -1.85%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -5.96%E -1.81%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-19 23:25
Bovada🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.19%EV -5.89%E -3.55%K -8.93%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -11.11%E -1.85%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -5.96%E -1.81%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 23:24
BetAnything🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.19%EV -5.89%E -3.55%K -8.93%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -11.11%E -1.85%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -5.96%E -1.81%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 23:25
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.09%EV -6.46%E -3.92%K -9.94%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.43%EV -11.11%E -1.85%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -7.39%E -2.27%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-19 23:20
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.09%EV -6.46%E -3.92%K -9.94%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.43%EV -11.11%E -1.85%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -7.39%E -2.27%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-19 23:15
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.03%EV -5.33%E -3.19%K -7.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -11.11%E -1.85%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -11.66%E -3.76%K -5.55%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-19 23:25
Bet Right🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.33%EV -6.46%E -3.92%K -9.94%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -11.11%E -1.85%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -11.66%E -3.76%K -5.55%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-19 23:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.07%EV -6.46%E -3.92%K -9.94%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.14%EV -11.11%E -1.85%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.79%EV -13.09%E -4.29%K -6.38%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-19 23:25
Paddy Power🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.60%EV -9.30%E -5.81%K -15.49%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.09%EV -11.11%E -1.85%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -8.81%E -2.75%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-19 23:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.56%EV -11.00%E -7.00%K -19.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.80%EV -11.11%E -1.85%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -11.66%E -3.76%K -5.55%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-19 23:24
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.03%EV -9.30%E -5.81%K -15.49%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.73%EV -14.08%E -2.43%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.24%EV -4.54%E -1.36%K -1.93%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-19 23:20
Sky Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.73%EV -9.30%E -5.81%K -15.49%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.51%EV -14.82%E -2.58%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.76%EV -11.66%E -3.76%K -5.55%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-19 23:24
BetRivers🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.86%EV -0.792%E -0.453%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.14%EV -18.52%E -3.37%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -7.39%E -2.27%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-19 23:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.46%EV -11.56%E -7.41%K -20.65%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.01%EV -18.52%E -3.37%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.52%EV -8.81%E -2.75%K -4.01%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-19 23:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 53.85%EV -8.16%E -5.04%K -13.16%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.86%EV -18.52%E -3.37%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.29%EV -17.93%E -6.23%K -9.54%G +0.000%14.6%2026-04-19 23:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 55.39%EV -11.00%E -7.00%K -19.29%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.10%EV -20.00%E -3.70%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.51%EV -13.09%E -4.29%K -6.38%G +0.000%15.0%2026-04-19 23:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.47%EV +0.341%E +0.193%K +0.443%G +0.002%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.86%EV -21.48%E -4.05%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -5.96%E -1.81%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-19 23:25
Unibet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.47%EV +0.341%E +0.193%K +0.443%G +0.002%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.86%EV -21.48%E -4.05%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -5.96%E -1.81%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-19 23:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.39%EV -3.63%E -2.13%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.80%EV -24.45%E -4.79%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -10.24%E -3.25%K -4.76%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-19 23:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.39%EV -3.63%E -2.13%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.80%EV -24.45%E -4.79%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -10.24%E -3.25%K -4.76%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-19 23:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.68%EV -4.76%E -2.83%K -7.00%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.68%EV -24.45%E -4.79%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.63%EV -10.24%E -3.25%K -4.76%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-19 23:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.71I 58.48%NM 58.15%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.44%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.41%0.6%2026-04-19 23:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.72I 58.14%NM 57.79%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.81%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40%0.6%2026-04-19 23:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 57.79%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.81%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40%0.6%2026-04-19 23:20
Matchbook1.70I 58.82%NM 58.29%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.39%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.31%0.9%2026-04-19 23:25
Smarkets1.70I 58.82%NM 57.84%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.66%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.50%1.7%2026-04-19 23:25
Kalshi1.69I 59.17%NM 57.36%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.53%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.10%3.1%2026-04-19 23:25