The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Talleres v Defensa y Justicia

2026-10-24 20:00 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Talleres (Local)

Prediction 45.87%2.18fair odd
EV -4.59%
Edge -2.21%
Kelly -4.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.44%45.87%46.05%47.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.971.982.0855.56%50.81%50.63%48.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Defensa y Justicia (Visit)

Prediction 25.02%4.00fair odd
EV -4.94%
Edge -1.30%
Kelly -1.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.21%25.02%24.84%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.543.553.8030.77%28.24%28.17%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.11%3.43fair odd
EV -3.64%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.33%29.11%29.10%29.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.123.103.3133.90%32.04%32.26%30.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Talleres (Local): 45.87%; Defensa y Justicia (Visit): 25.02%; Draw: 29.11%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.43. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.31, with an expected value of -3.64%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.09%EV -4.59%E -2.21%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -9.94%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.86%EV -5.39%E -1.66%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-11 22:29
1xBet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.80%EV -5.05%E -2.44%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 25.56%EV -7.19%E -1.94%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 28.64%EV -3.64%E -1.10%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-11 22:45
Fanatics🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.87%EV -5.96%E -2.91%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -4.94%E -1.30%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.84%E -2.14%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 22:39
FanDuel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -5.96%E -2.91%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -9.94%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -6.84%E -2.14%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-11 22:33
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -8.26%E -4.13%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -12.44%E -3.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.75%E -3.15%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-11 22:35
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.44%EV -10.55%E -5.41%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.67%EV -18.69%E -5.75%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.89%EV -12.66%E -4.22%K -6.33%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-11 22:59
Betclic (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 46.50%EV -12.85%E -6.76%K -14.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.54%EV -9.94%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.96%EV -11.21%E -3.67%K -5.47%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-11 22:34
Winamax (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 46.22%EV -12.85%E -6.76%K -14.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.45%EV -13.69%E -3.97%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.33%EV -9.75%E -3.15%K -4.64%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-11 22:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 46.10%EV -13.76%E -7.32%K -15.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.49%EV -14.94%E -4.39%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.41%EV -11.21%E -3.67%K -5.47%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-11 22:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 47.07%EV -17.43%E -9.68%K -21.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.21%EV -12.44%E -3.55%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.72%EV -14.12%E -4.79%K -7.24%G +0.000%18.0%2026-10-11 22:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.