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Talleres v Defensa y Justicia

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 20:00 UTC

Final: Talleres 1–2 Defensa y Justicia

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Talleres (Local)

Prediction 39.88%2.51fair odd
EV -2.69%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.65%40.02%39.87%41.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.322.322.4447.62%43.18%43.10%40.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Defensa y Justicia (Visit)

Prediction 30.83%3.24fair odd
EV -0.126%
Edge -0.039%
Kelly -0.056%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.73%30.79%30.85%31.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.003.003.2435.71%33.36%33.33%30.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.29%3.41fair odd
EV -2.46%
Edge -0.737%
Kelly -1.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.04%29.19%29.29%30.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.153.203.3333.90%31.75%31.25%30.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Talleres (Local): 39.88%; Defensa y Justicia (Visit): 30.83%; Draw: 29.29%. For Defensa y Justicia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.244. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.240, with an expected value of -0.126%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.69%EV -2.69%E -1.10%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.04%EV -3.82%E -1.23%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 29.26%EV -3.04%E -0.919%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-24 19:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.77%EV -3.09%E -1.27%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.68%EV -2.90%E -0.921%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.55%EV -4.21%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-24 18:40
BetAnything🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.77%EV -3.09%E -1.27%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.68%EV -2.90%E -0.921%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.55%EV -4.21%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-24 18:39
Unibet (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.03%EV -4.28%E -1.78%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -7.52%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -7.73%E -2.45%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 19:55
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.03%EV -4.28%E -1.78%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -7.52%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -7.73%E -2.45%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 19:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.52%EV -4.68%E -1.96%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.97%EV -5.98%E -1.96%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -6.26%E -1.96%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-24 19:45
1xBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.28%EV -5.08%E -2.13%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.86%EV -1.05%E -0.327%K -0.475%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.86%EV -5.97%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-24 19:55
BetRivers🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.65%EV -5.08%E -2.13%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -9.07%E -3.07%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -10.66%E -3.49%K -5.20%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 19:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.52%EV -5.48%E -2.31%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -7.52%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -6.26%E -1.96%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-24 18:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.14%EV -6.28%E -2.67%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.84%EV -0.126%E -0.039%K -0.056%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.03%EV -2.46%E -0.737%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-24 19:55
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -6.28%E -2.67%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -4.44%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -6.26%E -1.96%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 19:55
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.10%EV -6.28%E -2.67%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -5.98%E -1.96%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -4.80%E -1.48%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 19:55
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -6.28%E -2.67%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.76%EV -5.98%E -1.96%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -6.26%E -1.96%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 19:55
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -6.28%E -2.67%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.76%EV -5.98%E -1.96%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -6.26%E -1.96%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 19:40
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -6.28%E -2.67%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.76%EV -5.98%E -1.96%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -6.26%E -1.96%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 19:39
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -6.28%E -2.67%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -7.52%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -6.26%E -1.96%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 18:39
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.54%EV -6.28%E -2.67%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -7.52%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -7.73%E -2.45%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 19:45
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.54%EV -6.28%E -2.67%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -7.52%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -7.73%E -2.45%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 19:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.65%EV -7.47%E -3.22%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.46%EV -12.15%E -4.26%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -12.12%E -4.04%K -6.06%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-24 19:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.65%EV -7.47%E -3.22%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.46%EV -12.15%E -4.26%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -12.12%E -4.04%K -6.06%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-24 19:55
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -8.27%E -3.60%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -4.44%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.26%E -1.96%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 13:45
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -8.27%E -3.60%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -4.44%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -7.73%E -2.45%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 19:55
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -8.27%E -3.60%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.61%E -3.66%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -6.26%E -1.96%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-24 19:55
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -8.27%E -3.60%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -11.22%E -3.90%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -6.26%E -1.96%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 19:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.63%EV -8.27%E -3.60%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -10.61%E -3.66%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.94%EV -7.73%E -2.45%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-24 19:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.41%EV -8.27%E -3.60%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -12.15%E -4.26%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -7.73%E -2.45%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-24 19:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 40.96%EV -9.47%E -4.17%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -4.44%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -6.26%E -1.96%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 09:50
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -10.27%E -4.56%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -7.52%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -3.33%E -1.01%K -1.45%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-24 19:55
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -10.27%E -4.56%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -7.52%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -12.12%E -4.04%K -6.06%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-24 19:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -10.27%E -4.56%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -7.52%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -12.12%E -4.04%K -6.06%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-24 19:55
NetBet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.67%EV -10.27%E -4.56%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.57%EV -9.99%E -3.42%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.76%EV -12.12%E -4.04%K -6.06%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-24 19:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -10.27%E -4.56%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -13.69%E -4.89%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -9.19%E -2.97%K -4.38%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-24 19:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.97%EV -10.27%E -4.56%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.31%EV -13.69%E -4.89%K -7.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.72%EV -13.59%E -4.61%K -6.97%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-24 19:55
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -12.26%E -5.57%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -7.52%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -4.80%E -1.48%K -2.13%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 10:05
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -12.26%E -5.57%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -7.52%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -12.12%E -4.04%K -6.06%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-24 04:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.92%EV -12.26%E -5.57%K -10.22%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.81%EV -12.15%E -4.26%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.27%EV -12.12%E -4.04%K -6.06%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-24 19:42
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.04%EV -16.25%E -7.74%K -14.77%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.24%EV -12.15%E -4.26%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.73%EV -12.12%E -4.04%K -6.06%G +0.000%16.0%2026-10-24 19:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.50I 40.00%NM 40.02%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.98%3.45I 28.99%NM 29.00%-0.1%2026-10-24 19:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 39.76%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.81%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.43%1.4%2026-10-24 19:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.31%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.35%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.35%1.7%2026-10-24 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.31%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.35%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.35%1.7%2026-10-24 19:55
Smarkets◎2.34I 42.74%NM 41.71%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.71%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.58%2.4%2026-10-24 19:55