L’École des cotes

Sarmiento de Junin v Union Santa Fe

Coup d’envoi : 2026-02-26 20:15 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

37 opérateurs (15 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Sarmiento de Junin (Local)

Prévision 28.27%3.54cote équitable
EV +0.658%
Avantage +0.185%
Kelly +0.257%
Croissance +0.002%

avec la cote maximale 3.56

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
26.59%28.20%28.33%29.35%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.003.293.303.5633.33%30.37%30.30%28.09%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Union Santa Fe (Visiteur)

Prévision 38.77%2.58cote équitable
EV -3.08%
Avantage -1.23%
Kelly -2.06%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
37.78%38.95%38.68%41.41%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.152.362.402.5046.51%42.38%41.67%40.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 32.96%3.03cote équitable
EV -2.77%
Avantage -0.939%
Kelly -1.42%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.95

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
31.86%32.84%32.99%33.43%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.552.822.852.9539.22%35.41%35.09%33.90%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (37 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
BetOnline.ag3.56I 28.09%NM 26.73%EV +0.658%E +0.185%K +0.257%G +0.002%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.67%EV -9.29%E -3.97%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.59%EV -3.76%E -1.29%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-23 05:05
LowVig.ag3.56I 28.09%NM 26.73%EV +0.658%E +0.185%K +0.257%G +0.002%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.67%EV -9.29%E -3.97%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.59%EV -3.76%E -1.29%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-23 05:05
Unibet3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV +0.375%E +0.106%K +0.147%G +0.001%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.41%EV -11.61%E -5.09%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.00%EV -2.77%E -0.939%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-26 19:49
Unibet (SE)3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV +0.375%E +0.106%K +0.147%G +0.001%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.41%EV -11.61%E -5.09%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.00%EV -2.77%E -0.939%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-26 19:50
BetRivers3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -1.04%E -0.297%K -0.416%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.25%EV -11.61%E -5.09%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.88%EV -2.77%E -0.939%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-26 19:50
Pinnacle3.49I 28.65%NM 27.77%EV -1.32%E -0.379%K -0.531%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.92%EV -3.47%E -1.39%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.31%EV -4.09%E -1.40%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-26 20:10
LeoVegas (SE)3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -2.45%E -0.711%K -1.00%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.19%EV -12.78%E -5.68%K -10.22%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.95%EV -4.42%E -1.52%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-26 19:50
FanDuel3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -3.87%E -1.14%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.25%EV -6.96%E -2.90%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -6.07%E -2.13%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-26 18:10
Fanatics3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -3.87%E -1.14%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.25%EV -6.96%E -2.90%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -6.07%E -2.13%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-26 17:00
LiveScore Bet3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -3.87%E -1.14%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.34%EV -14.71%E -6.69%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.91%EV -6.07%E -2.13%K -3.28%G +0.000%10.0%2026-02-26 19:49
Virgin Bet3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -3.87%E -1.14%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.34%EV -14.71%E -6.69%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.91%EV -6.07%E -2.13%K -3.28%G +0.000%10.0%2026-02-26 19:50
Everygame3.35I 29.85%NM 28.00%EV -5.28%E -1.58%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -6.96%E -2.90%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -6.07%E -2.13%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-26 20:05
Marathon Bet3.34I 29.94%NM 27.94%EV -5.56%E -1.67%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.73%EV -6.57%E -2.73%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.71%E -2.75%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-26 20:09
1xBet3.31I 30.21%NM 29.02%EV -6.41%E -1.94%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.08%E -1.23%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.56%EV -2.77%E -0.939%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-26 20:04
NordicBet3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -6.69%E -2.03%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.30%EV -5.02%E -2.05%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.27%EV -7.05%E -2.50%K -3.88%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-26 20:04
Betsson3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -6.69%E -2.03%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.30%EV -5.02%E -2.05%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.27%EV -7.05%E -2.50%K -3.88%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-26 20:05
theScore Bet3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.69%E -2.03%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -5.02%E -2.05%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -7.71%E -2.75%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-26 19:25
BetAnything3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -6.69%E -2.03%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.92%EV -6.96%E -2.90%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.77%EV -6.07%E -2.13%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-26 20:10
SportsBet3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -6.69%E -2.03%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -6.96%E -2.90%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -7.71%E -2.75%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-26 14:00
DraftKings3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -8.11%E -2.49%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.79%EV -3.08%E -1.23%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.15%EV -6.07%E -2.13%K -3.28%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-26 19:35
Ladbrokes (UK)3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -8.11%E -2.49%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.48%EV -5.02%E -2.05%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.51%EV -4.42%E -1.52%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-26 19:20
Bovada3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -8.11%E -2.49%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.26%EV -5.02%E -2.05%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.89%EV -6.07%E -2.13%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-26 19:39
Unibet (UK)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -8.11%E -2.49%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.26%EV -5.02%E -2.05%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.89%EV -6.07%E -2.13%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-26 19:35
Betway3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -8.11%E -2.49%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -6.96%E -2.90%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -7.71%E -2.75%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-26 20:05
PlayUp3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -8.11%E -2.49%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -6.96%E -2.90%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -7.71%E -2.75%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-26 20:04
BoyleSports3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -8.11%E -2.49%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -7.74%E -3.25%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.92%EV -7.71%E -2.75%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-26 18:50
Paddy Power3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -8.11%E -2.49%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -10.84%E -4.71%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -9.36%E -3.40%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.6%2026-02-26 18:10
BetMGM3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -9.52%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -6.96%E -2.90%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.26%EV -5.08%E -1.76%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-26 19:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.20I 31.25%NM 27.13%EV -9.52%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.47%EV -14.71%E -6.69%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.40%EV -14.31%E -5.50%K -8.94%G +0.000%15.2%2026-02-26 18:10
Bet Right3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -10.93%E -3.47%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.18%EV -6.96%E -2.90%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -7.71%E -2.75%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-26 19:25
Betclic (FR)3.12I 32.05%NM 28.58%EV -11.78%E -3.78%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.76%EV -10.84%E -4.71%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 32.66%EV -10.02%E -3.67%K -5.79%G +0.000%12.2%2026-02-26 19:48
Winamax (DE)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.35%EV -12.35%E -3.98%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.72%EV -8.90%E -3.79%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.93%EV -6.07%E -2.13%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-26 19:25
Betr (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.25%EV -12.35%E -3.98%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -6.96%E -2.90%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -9.36%E -3.40%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.3%2026-02-26 19:25
Parions Sport (FR)3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -12.35%E -3.98%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -10.84%E -4.71%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -11.01%E -4.08%K -6.48%G +0.000%12.8%2026-02-26 19:49
Sky Bet3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -12.35%E -3.98%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -10.84%E -4.71%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -11.01%E -4.08%K -6.48%G +0.000%12.8%2026-02-26 14:00
Winamax (FR)3.00I 33.33%NM 29.20%EV -15.18%E -5.06%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.94%EV -12.78%E -5.68%K -10.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.86%EV -9.36%E -3.40%K -5.35%G +0.000%14.1%2026-02-26 19:35
PMU (FR)3.00I 33.33%NM 28.00%EV -15.18%E -5.06%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 39.07%EV -16.65%E -7.75%K -14.48%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 32.94%EV -15.95%E -6.26%K -10.29%G +0.000%19.1%2026-02-26 19:20
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook3.65I 27.40%NM 27.16%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.34%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.49%0.9%2026-02-26 20:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.60I 27.78%NM 27.44%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.19%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.37%1.2%2026-02-26 20:09
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.60I 27.78%NM 27.44%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.19%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.37%1.2%2026-02-26 20:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.60I 27.78%NM 27.44%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.19%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.37%1.2%2026-02-26 20:09
Smarkets3.60I 27.78%NM 27.23%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.21%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.57%2.0%2026-02-26 20:09