Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Racing Club v River Plate

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 23:00 UTC

Final: Racing Club 0–2 River Plate

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

39 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Racing Club (Local)

Prediction 34.71%2.88fair odd
EV -1.41%
Edge -0.496%
Kelly -0.766%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.02%34.74%34.78%37.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.632.652.8444.44%37.97%37.74%35.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

River Plate (Visit)

Prediction 32.92%3.04fair odd
EV -2.54%
Edge -0.860%
Kelly -1.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.90%32.93%32.83%34.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.802.852.9640.00%35.71%35.09%33.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.36%3.09fair odd
EV -2.92%
Edge -0.972%
Kelly -1.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.30%32.33%32.39%33.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.872.883.0038.02%34.87%34.72%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Racing Club (Local): 34.71%; River Plate (Visit): 32.92%; Draw: 32.36%. For Racing Club (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.88. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.84, with an expected value of -1.41%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 34.11%EV -1.41%E -0.496%K -0.766%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.72%EV -2.54%E -0.860%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.17%EV -5.51%E -1.89%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-12 22:30
BetAnything🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -2.80%E -0.999%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.73%EV -11.10%E -4.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.78%EV -4.54%E -1.54%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 08:35
LowVig.ag🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 34.28%EV -3.49%E -1.26%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.86%EV -4.52%E -1.56%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.86%EV -6.15%E -2.12%K -3.24%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-12 22:29
BetOnline.ag🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 34.28%EV -3.49%E -1.26%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.86%EV -4.52%E -1.56%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.86%EV -6.15%E -2.12%K -3.24%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-12 22:30
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.70%EV -4.53%E -1.65%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.49%EV -6.17%E -2.16%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.81%EV -2.92%E -0.972%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-12 21:55
FanDuel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.53%E -1.65%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.87%E -0.974%K -1.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.31%EV -7.77%E -2.73%K -4.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-12 22:19
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.31%EV -4.53%E -1.65%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.70%EV -7.81%E -2.79%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.99%EV -4.54%E -1.54%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 17:30
1xBet🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 34.42%EV -5.92%E -2.19%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -6.17%E -2.16%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 32.85%EV -8.09%E -2.85%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 22:30
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.27%E -2.32%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%EV -4.52%E -1.56%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%EV -6.15%E -2.12%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 22:30
Betsson🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -6.27%E -2.32%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.97%EV -2.87%E -0.974%K -1.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -7.77%E -2.73%K -4.20%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 22:30
NordicBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -6.27%E -2.32%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.97%EV -2.87%E -0.974%K -1.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -7.77%E -2.73%K -4.20%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 22:30
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.74%EV -6.27%E -2.32%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -6.17%E -2.16%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.35%EV -6.15%E -2.12%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 22:09
Everygame🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.55%EV -6.27%E -2.32%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -6.17%E -2.16%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -7.77%E -2.73%K -4.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 22:30
theScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -6.27%E -2.32%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -7.81%E -2.79%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -6.15%E -2.12%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 17:29
SportsBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.42%EV -6.27%E -2.32%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.38%EV -5.51%E -1.92%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.19%EV -9.39%E -3.35%K -5.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-12 21:55
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -6.27%E -2.32%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -7.81%E -2.79%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -9.39%E -3.35%K -5.22%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-12 22:29
PlayUp🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -6.27%E -2.32%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -7.81%E -2.79%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -9.39%E -3.35%K -5.22%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-12 21:29
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.04%EV -6.27%E -2.32%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.04%EV -11.10%E -4.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.91%EV -6.80%E -2.36%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-12 17:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 34.96%EV -7.31%E -2.74%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.41%EV -5.18%E -1.80%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.63%EV -7.45%E -2.60%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-12 22:30
Bet Right🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.72%EV -8.01%E -3.02%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.08%EV -11.10%E -4.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.19%EV -4.54%E -1.54%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-12 18:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.89%EV -9.05%E -3.45%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.76%EV -5.51%E -1.92%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -2.92%E -0.972%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 19:29
Betclic (FR)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.77%EV -9.05%E -3.45%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.49%EV -10.45%E -3.84%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.74%EV -7.12%E -2.48%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-12 17:29
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.62%EV -9.05%E -3.45%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.40%EV -7.81%E -2.79%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.98%EV -11.01%E -4.00%K -6.29%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-12 21:54
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.39%EV -9.74%E -3.75%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.07%EV -2.87%E -0.974%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.54%EV -2.92%E -0.972%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-12 22:19
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.39%EV -9.74%E -3.75%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.07%EV -2.87%E -0.974%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.54%EV -2.92%E -0.972%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-12 22:19
BetRivers🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -9.74%E -3.75%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%EV -2.87%E -0.974%K -1.47%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%EV -4.54%E -1.54%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 22:30
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -9.74%E -3.75%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.66%EV -6.17%E -2.16%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -4.54%E -1.54%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-12 19:28
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.93%EV -9.74%E -3.75%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.28%EV -12.75%E -4.81%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.79%EV -4.54%E -1.54%K -2.33%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-12 17:30
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.75%EV -9.74%E -3.75%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.09%EV -12.75%E -4.81%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -6.15%E -2.12%K -3.24%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-12 18:00
Sky Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.38%EV -9.74%E -3.75%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.51%EV -9.46%E -3.44%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.11%EV -12.63%E -4.68%K -7.43%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-12 21:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.02%EV -9.74%E -3.75%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.34%EV -17.69%E -7.08%K -11.79%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.64%EV -14.89%E -5.66%K -9.14%G +0.000%16.5%2026-04-12 22:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.22%EV -11.48%E -4.50%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.26%EV -11.10%E -4.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.51%EV -7.77%E -2.73%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-12 17:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -13.21%E -5.29%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.95%EV -6.17%E -2.16%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.62%EV -6.80%E -2.36%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-12 22:29
LiveScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -13.21%E -5.29%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.95%EV -6.17%E -2.16%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.62%EV -6.80%E -2.36%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-12 22:29
NetBet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.81%EV -13.21%E -5.29%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 32.59%EV -12.09%E -4.53%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 32.59%EV -13.60%E -5.09%K -8.14%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-12 22:29
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.80%EV -13.21%E -5.29%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.12%EV -16.04%E -6.29%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.07%EV -9.39%E -3.35%K -5.22%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-12 17:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.29%EV -13.91%E -5.61%K -9.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.14%EV -7.81%E -2.79%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.58%EV -7.77%E -2.73%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-12 22:20
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.18%EV -20.16%E -8.76%K -15.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.27%EV -12.75%E -4.81%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.54%EV -9.39%E -3.35%K -5.22%G +0.000%16.9%2026-03-26 20:54
PMU (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 37.03%EV -21.89%E -9.73%K -17.51%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 32.67%EV -16.04%E -6.29%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 30.30%EV -11.01%E -4.00%K -6.29%G +0.000%20.0%2026-03-26 22:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.82I 35.46%NM 35.28%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.10%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.62%0.5%2026-04-12 22:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.45%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.01%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.54%0.8%2026-04-12 22:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.45%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.01%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.54%0.8%2026-04-12 22:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.45%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.01%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.54%0.8%2026-04-12 22:30
Smarkets2.78I 35.97%NM 35.23%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.12%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.65%2.1%2026-04-12 22:30