The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Platense v Newells Old Boys

Kickoff: 2026-09-20 20:00 UTC

Final: Platense 0–1 Newells Old Boys

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Platense (Local)

Prediction 39.47%2.53fair odd
EV -2.91%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -1.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.80%39.63%39.48%42.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.312.352.4648.78%43.27%42.55%40.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Newells Old Boys (Visit)

Prediction 27.88%3.59fair odd
EV +0.378%
Edge +0.105%
Kelly +0.145%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.59%27.79%27.87%29.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.353.353.6032.26%29.84%29.85%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.65%3.06fair odd
EV -2.05%
Edge -0.683%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.07%32.58%32.65%33.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.672.852.853.0037.45%35.06%35.09%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Platense (Local): 39.47%; Newells Old Boys (Visit): 27.88%; Draw: 32.65%. For Newells Old Boys (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.59. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.378%.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 40.08%EV -4.89%E -2.03%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV +0.378%E +0.105%K +0.145%G +0.001%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.08%EV -4.66%E -1.60%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-20 19:29
BetOnline.ag🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 40.08%EV -4.89%E -2.03%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV +0.378%E +0.105%K +0.145%G +0.001%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.08%EV -4.66%E -1.60%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-20 19:29
BetAnything🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 40.08%EV -4.89%E -2.03%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV +0.378%E +0.105%K +0.145%G +0.001%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.08%EV -4.66%E -1.60%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-20 19:29
Unibet (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.88%EV -13.96%E -6.40%K -11.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV +0.378%E +0.105%K +0.145%G +0.001%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -2.05%E -0.683%K -1.02%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 19:54
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.88%EV -13.96%E -6.40%K -11.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV +0.378%E +0.105%K +0.145%G +0.001%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -2.05%E -0.683%K -1.02%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 19:54
BetRivers🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.65%EV -14.75%E -6.83%K -12.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV +0.378%E +0.105%K +0.145%G +0.001%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -5.31%E -1.83%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-20 19:49
1xBet🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.35%EV -3.70%E -1.52%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.97%EV -0.737%E -0.207%K -0.288%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.69%EV -6.95%E -2.44%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-20 19:49
Pinnacle🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 39.36%EV -2.91%E -1.18%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.59%EV -2.13%E -0.607%K -0.849%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 33.05%EV -4.33%E -1.48%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-20 19:49
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.47%EV -5.28%E -2.20%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -5.20%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -5.31%E -1.83%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-20 19:43
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -7.25%E -3.09%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -5.20%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -6.95%E -2.44%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 19:54
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.52%EV -7.25%E -3.09%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -5.20%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -8.58%E -3.06%K -4.77%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 19:53
Virgin Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -17.12%E -8.15%K -15.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -5.20%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -5.97%E -2.07%K -3.17%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-20 19:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -17.12%E -8.15%K -15.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -5.20%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -5.97%E -2.07%K -3.17%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-20 19:54
Marathon Bet🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.45%EV -6.86%E -2.91%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.54%EV -5.76%E -1.70%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.01%EV -7.93%E -2.81%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-20 19:48
Codere (IT)🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.11%EV -4.49%E -1.86%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.25%EV -6.59%E -1.97%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.64%EV -5.31%E -1.83%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-20 19:29
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.31%EV -5.28%E -2.20%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -6.59%E -1.97%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%EV -5.31%E -1.83%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-20 19:44
Betsson🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.89%EV -4.49%E -1.86%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.09%EV -6.59%E -1.97%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.02%EV -6.95%E -2.44%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 19:30
NordicBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.89%EV -4.49%E -1.86%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.09%EV -6.59%E -1.97%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.02%EV -6.95%E -2.44%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 19:29
Bovada🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -5.28%E -2.20%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.00%EV -6.59%E -1.97%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -6.95%E -2.44%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 19:33
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.66%EV -19.09%E -9.31%K -18.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.11%EV -6.59%E -1.97%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.23%EV -8.58%E -3.06%K -4.77%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-20 19:54
Betway🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.25%EV -6.07%E -2.55%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -7.99%E -2.42%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.44%EV -5.97%E -2.07%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 19:54
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -9.23%E -4.01%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -7.99%E -2.42%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -8.58%E -3.06%K -4.77%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-20 19:43
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -9.23%E -4.01%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -7.99%E -2.42%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -10.21%E -3.71%K -5.83%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-20 19:54
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.25%EV -7.25%E -3.09%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.38%EV -9.38%E -2.89%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.37%EV -6.95%E -2.44%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-20 19:45
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -9.23%E -4.01%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -9.38%E -2.89%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -5.97%E -2.07%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-20 19:34
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.77%EV -9.23%E -4.01%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -9.38%E -2.89%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.09%EV -6.95%E -2.44%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-20 19:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -5.28%E -2.20%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -10.78%E -3.37%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -5.31%E -1.83%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-20 19:29
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -5.28%E -2.20%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -10.78%E -3.37%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -5.31%E -1.83%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-20 19:28
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.37%EV -9.23%E -4.01%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -10.78%E -3.37%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -8.58%E -3.06%K -4.77%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-20 19:34
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.43%EV -11.20%E -4.98%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.72%EV -10.78%E -3.37%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.85%EV -11.84%E -4.39%K -6.97%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-20 19:54
NetBet (FR)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 39.60%EV -12.38%E -5.58%K -10.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.47%EV -10.78%E -3.37%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 32.93%EV -12.82%E -4.80%K -7.68%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-20 19:53
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.41%EV -9.23%E -4.01%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -12.17%E -3.86%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -6.95%E -2.44%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-20 19:29
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.03%EV -13.17%E -5.99%K -10.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.95%EV -12.17%E -3.86%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.02%EV -10.21%E -3.71%K -5.83%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-20 19:29
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -11.20%E -4.98%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -13.56%E -4.38%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -8.58%E -3.06%K -4.77%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-20 19:29
Betclic (FR)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 39.49%EV -12.38%E -5.58%K -10.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.28%EV -13.56%E -4.38%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 32.23%EV -11.19%E -4.11%K -6.51%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-20 19:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.60%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67%1.0%2026-09-20 19:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.53%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.08%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.39%1.2%2026-09-20 19:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.53%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.08%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.39%1.2%2026-09-20 19:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.53%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.08%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.39%1.2%2026-09-20 19:54
Smarkets◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.38%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.35%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.26%1.6%2026-09-20 19:54