The School of Odds

Newells Old Boys v Talleres

2026-07-25 20:00 — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (4 in analysis)

Option 1: Newells Old Boys (Local)

Odds
2.4041.67%Min
2.6038.50%Mean
2.6238.17%Median
2.8035.71%Max
Consensus probabilities
33.88%2.951Min
35.14%2.846Max
34.59%2.891Mean
34.63%2.888Median
34.63%2.888IQM
34.58%2.892Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.80 under the IQM model: 34.63%

EV -3.04%Edge -1.09%Kelly -1.69%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Talleres (Visit)

Odds
2.5040.00%Min
2.6937.16%Mean
2.7536.36%Median
2.8435.21%Max
Consensus probabilities
32.43%3.083Min
34.28%2.917Max
33.43%2.991Mean
33.33%3.000Median
33.33%3.000IQM
33.44%2.991Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.84 under the IQM model: 33.33%

EV -5.33%Edge -1.88%Kelly -2.90%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds
2.6038.46%Min
2.8335.34%Mean
2.8535.09%Median
3.0033.33%Max
Consensus probabilities
31.03%3.223Min
32.71%3.057Max
31.97%3.127Mean
32.04%3.121Median
32.04%3.121IQM
31.99%3.126Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.00 under the IQM model: 32.04%

EV -3.89%Edge -1.30%Kelly -1.94%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

BookmakerNewells Old Boys (Local) ▼Talleres (Visit)DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.80I 35.71% NM 33.88%EV -3.04% E -1.09% K -1.69% G +0.000%2.84I 35.21% NM 33.40%EV -5.33% E -1.88% K -2.90% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 32.71%EV -7.09% E -2.44% K -3.73% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-04 20:35
Marathon Bet2.75I 36.36% NM 33.89%EV -4.77% E -1.74% K -2.73% G +0.000%2.79I 35.84% NM 33.41%EV -7.00% E -2.51% K -3.91% G +0.000%2.85I 35.09% NM 32.70%EV -8.69% E -3.05% K -4.70% G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-04 20:25
Codere (IT)2.70I 37.04% NM 34.34%EV -6.50% E -2.41% K -3.83% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 33.12%EV -6.67% E -2.38% K -3.70% G +0.000%2.85I 35.09% NM 32.54%EV -8.69% E -3.05% K -4.70% G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-02 22:15
SportsBet2.65I 37.74% NM 35.13%EV -8.23% E -3.11% K -4.99% G +0.000%2.75I 36.36% NM 33.85%EV -8.33% E -3.03% K -4.76% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 31.03%EV -3.89% E -1.30% K -1.94% G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-03 06:39
FanDuel2.65I 37.74% NM 35.13%EV -8.23% E -3.11% K -4.99% G +0.000%2.75I 36.36% NM 33.85%EV -8.33% E -3.03% K -4.76% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 31.03%EV -3.89% E -1.30% K -1.94% G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-03 05:34
BoyleSports2.62I 38.17% NM 35.01%EV -9.27% E -3.54% K -5.72% G +0.000%2.75I 36.36% NM 33.36%EV -8.33% E -3.03% K -4.76% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 31.63%EV -7.09% E -2.44% K -3.73% G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-03 11:45
Paddy Power2.60I 38.46% NM 34.54%EV -9.97% E -3.83% K -6.23% G +0.000%2.62I 38.17% NM 34.28%EV -12.67% E -4.83% K -7.82% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 31.18%EV -7.73% E -2.68% K -4.11% G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-03 06:39
Sky Bet2.50I 40.00% NM 34.84%EV -13.43% E -5.37% K -8.95% G +0.000%2.60I 38.46% NM 33.50%EV -13.33% E -5.13% K -8.33% G +0.000%2.75I 36.36% NM 31.67%EV -11.90% E -4.33% K -6.80% G +0.000%14.8%2026-07-03 06:39
Winamax (DE)2.50I 40.00% NM 34.84%EV -13.43% E -5.37% K -8.95% G +0.000%2.60I 38.46% NM 33.50%EV -13.33% E -5.13% K -8.33% G +0.000%2.75I 36.36% NM 31.67%EV -11.90% E -4.33% K -6.80% G +0.000%14.8%2026-07-02 23:00
Betclic (FR)2.42I 41.32% NM 35.03%EV -16.20% E -6.69% K -11.41% G +0.000%2.60I 38.46% NM 32.61%EV -13.33% E -5.13% K -8.33% G +0.000%2.62I 38.17% NM 32.36%EV -16.06% E -6.13% K -9.91% G +0.000%18.0%2026-07-02 22:03
Unibet (FR)2.40I 41.67% NM 35.14%EV -16.89% E -7.04% K -12.07% G +0.000%2.60I 38.46% NM 32.43%EV -13.33% E -5.13% K -8.33% G +0.000%2.60I 38.46% NM 32.43%EV -16.70% E -6.42% K -10.44% G +0.000%18.6%2026-07-02 20:59
Winamax (FR)2.40I 41.67% NM 34.90%EV -16.89% E -7.04% K -12.07% G +0.000%2.50I 40.00% NM 33.50%EV -16.67% E -6.67% K -11.11% G +0.000%2.65I 37.74% NM 31.60%EV -15.10% E -5.70% K -9.15% G +0.000%19.4%2026-07-02 22:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth