The School of Odds
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Newells Old Boys v Gimnasia Mendoza

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 20:47 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Newells Old Boys (Local)

Prediction 37.70%2.65fair odd
EV -3.86%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -2.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.22%37.72%37.88%39.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.422.452.5545.45%41.32%40.82%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gimnasia Mendoza (Visit)

Prediction 28.29%3.54fair odd
EV +0.416%
Edge +0.117%
Kelly +0.163%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.50%28.33%28.08%30.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.273.303.5533.33%30.62%30.30%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 34.01%2.94fair odd
EV -2.04%
Edge -0.710%
Kelly -1.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.54%33.95%34.05%34.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.722.752.8840.82%36.77%36.36%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Newells Old Boys (Local): 37.70%; Gimnasia Mendoza (Visit): 28.29%; Draw: 34.01%. For Gimnasia Mendoza (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.54. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.416%.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.48%EV -9.52%E -3.97%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.69%EV +0.416%E +0.117%K +0.163%G +0.001%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.84%EV -4.77%E -1.70%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-21 20:44
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.48%EV -9.52%E -3.97%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.69%EV +0.416%E +0.117%K +0.163%G +0.001%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.84%EV -4.77%E -1.70%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-21 20:43
BetRivers🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.53%EV -10.27%E -4.32%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -0.998%E -0.285%K -0.399%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.60%EV -4.77%E -1.70%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-21 20:31
Pinnacle🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.97%EV -3.86%E -1.51%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.82%EV -1.56%E -0.449%K -0.631%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 34.21%EV -3.75%E -1.32%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-21 20:44
BetOnline.ag🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.11%EV -5.75%E -2.30%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.62%EV -2.41%E -0.699%K -0.985%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.27%EV -5.45%E -1.96%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-21 20:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.11%EV -5.75%E -2.30%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.62%EV -2.41%E -0.699%K -0.985%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.27%EV -5.45%E -1.96%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-21 20:45
FanDuel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -5.75%E -2.30%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -3.83%E -1.13%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -6.47%E -2.35%K -3.70%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-21 20:44
Fanatics🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -7.63%E -3.11%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -3.83%E -1.13%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -6.47%E -2.35%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-21 20:45
Everygame🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -7.63%E -3.11%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -3.83%E -1.13%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -8.17%E -3.02%K -4.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 20:43
LiveScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.04%EV -11.40%E -4.85%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -3.83%E -1.13%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -8.17%E -3.02%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-21 20:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.10%EV -12.53%E -5.40%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -3.83%E -1.13%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.23%EV -9.87%E -3.72%K -5.98%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-21 20:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.51%EV -14.04%E -6.16%K -10.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -3.83%E -1.13%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.99%EV -9.87%E -3.72%K -5.98%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-21 20:44
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.14%EV -7.63%E -3.11%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.24%E -1.56%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -6.47%E -2.35%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-21 20:43
BetAnything🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.14%EV -7.63%E -3.11%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.24%E -1.56%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -6.47%E -2.35%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-21 20:44
Marathon Bet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 37.77%EV -6.88%E -2.78%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.93%EV -5.52%E -1.65%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.30%EV -7.49%E -2.75%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-21 20:44
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -3.86%E -1.51%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.34%EV -6.47%E -2.35%K -3.70%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-21 20:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -7.63%E -3.11%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -4.77%E -1.70%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-21 20:44
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -7.63%E -3.11%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -8.17%E -3.02%K -4.80%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-21 20:44
theScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -3.86%E -1.51%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -9.48%E -2.96%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -4.77%E -1.70%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-21 20:44
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.84%EV -3.86%E -1.51%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -9.48%E -2.96%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.80%EV -5.45%E -1.96%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-21 20:44
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.84%EV -3.86%E -1.51%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -9.48%E -2.96%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.80%EV -5.45%E -1.96%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-21 20:44
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -5.75%E -2.30%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.48%E -2.96%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -8.17%E -3.02%K -4.80%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-21 20:43
Bet Right🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -9.52%E -3.97%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -9.48%E -2.96%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -6.47%E -2.35%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-21 20:44
Betclic (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.95%EV -11.40%E -4.85%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 28.14%EV -10.33%E -3.26%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.91%EV -10.55%E -4.01%K -6.47%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-21 20:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.45%EV -11.40%E -4.85%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -10.90%E -3.46%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -6.47%E -2.35%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-21 20:44
NetBet (FR)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 38.40%EV -14.42%E -6.35%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.68%EV -10.90%E -3.46%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 33.92%EV -12.59%E -4.90%K -8.02%G +0.000%14.7%2026-03-21 20:45
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -5.75%E -2.30%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -12.31%E -3.97%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -10.89%E -4.16%K -6.72%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-21 20:44
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.05%EV -11.40%E -4.85%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.84%EV -12.31%E -3.97%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.11%EV -8.17%E -3.02%K -4.80%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-21 20:45
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.89%EV -7.63%E -3.11%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.63%EV -13.73%E -4.50%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.48%EV -8.17%E -3.02%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-21 20:45
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.17%EV -10.27%E -4.32%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.28%EV -15.14%E -5.05%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.54%EV -2.04%E -0.710%K -1.09%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-21 20:45
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.61%EV -10.27%E -4.32%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -15.14%E -5.05%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.55%EV -6.47%E -2.35%K -3.70%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-21 20:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.96%EV -13.29%E -5.78%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.10%EV -15.14%E -5.05%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.94%EV -9.87%E -3.72%K -5.98%G +0.000%14.5%2026-03-21 20:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.22%EV -13.29%E -5.78%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.54%EV -15.14%E -5.05%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.24%EV -14.97%E -5.99%K -9.98%G +0.000%16.8%2026-03-21 20:44
PMU (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 38.00%EV -17.06%E -7.75%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.87%EV -15.14%E -5.05%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 34.13%EV -16.67%E -6.80%K -11.50%G +0.000%19.6%2026-03-21 20:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.62I 38.17%NM 37.95%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.01%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.05%0.6%2026-03-21 20:44
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.62I 38.17%NM 37.95%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.01%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.05%0.6%2026-03-21 20:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.62I 38.17%NM 37.95%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.01%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.05%0.6%2026-03-21 20:45
Smarkets◎2.58I 38.76%NM 37.89%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.93%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.18%2.3%2026-03-21 20:45