La escuela de los momios

Newells Old Boys v Estudiantes

Inicio: 2026-02-25 22:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

37 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Newells Old Boys (Local)

Predicción 26.19%3.82momio equitativo
EV -0.229%
Ventaja -0.060%
Kelly -0.081%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.81

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.48%26.22%26.12%27.08%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.543.553.8130.30%28.24%28.17%26.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Estudiantes (Visitante)

Predicción 40.46%2.47momio equitativo
EV -3.31%
Ventaja -1.38%
Kelly -2.38%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.39

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.88%40.51%40.50%42.29%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.262.302.3950.00%44.18%43.48%41.84%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 33.36%3.00momio equitativo
EV -3.27%
Ventaja -1.13%
Kelly -1.72%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.32%33.27%33.38%34.18%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.502.772.802.9040.00%36.11%35.71%34.48%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (37 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet3.81I 26.25%NM 25.19%EV -0.229%E -0.060%K -0.081%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.66%EV -4.52%E -1.91%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.15%EV -6.27%E -2.23%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.2%2026-02-25 22:20
SportsBet3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -0.490%E -0.129%K -0.175%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -10.99%E -5.00%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.23%EV -6.61%E -2.36%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-25 22:10
Pinnacle3.74I 26.74%NM 25.88%EV -2.06%E -0.551%K -0.752%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 40.50%EV -3.31%E -1.38%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.61%EV -3.94%E -1.37%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.3%2026-02-25 22:25
LowVig.ag3.67I 27.25%NM 25.97%EV -3.89%E -1.06%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.22%EV -4.11%E -1.74%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.80%EV -5.94%E -2.11%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-25 22:24
BetOnline.ag3.67I 27.25%NM 25.97%EV -3.89%E -1.06%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.22%EV -4.11%E -1.74%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.80%EV -5.94%E -2.11%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-25 22:25
Unibet3.65I 27.40%NM 25.91%EV -4.42%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.48%EV -7.76%E -3.40%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -3.27%E -1.13%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-25 22:14
Unibet (SE)3.65I 27.40%NM 25.91%EV -4.42%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.48%EV -7.76%E -3.40%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -3.27%E -1.13%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-25 22:14
Fanatics3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -6.95%E -3.02%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -4.94%E -1.73%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-25 22:19
Everygame3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.88%EV -4.92%E -2.10%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.08%EV -8.27%E -3.01%K -4.73%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-25 22:15
BetRivers3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -8.97%E -3.99%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -3.27%E -1.13%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-25 22:15
FanDuel3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.95%E -3.02%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.61%E -2.36%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-25 22:25
Bovada3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.95%E -3.02%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.61%E -2.36%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-25 22:19
Ladbrokes (UK)3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.95%E -3.02%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.61%E -2.36%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-25 22:20
theScore Bet3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.95%E -3.02%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.61%E -2.36%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-25 22:20
BetAnything3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.95%E -3.02%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.61%E -2.36%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-25 22:25
Marathon Bet3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.55%EV -6.95%E -3.02%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.55%EV -7.27%E -2.62%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-25 22:20
LeoVegas (SE)3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.63%EV -9.78%E -4.39%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -4.94%E -1.73%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-25 22:14
DraftKings3.55I 28.17%NM 26.62%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.22%EV -4.92%E -2.10%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.16%EV -4.94%E -1.73%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-25 22:19
Bet Right3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -8.97%E -3.99%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.37%EV -8.27%E -3.01%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-25 22:19
NordicBet3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -4.92%E -2.10%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.27%EV -5.94%E -2.11%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-25 22:24
Betsson3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -4.92%E -2.10%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.27%EV -5.94%E -2.11%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-25 22:25
BetMGM3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -6.95%E -3.02%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -6.61%E -2.36%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-25 22:20
Betway3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -6.95%E -3.02%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -8.27%E -3.01%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-25 22:14
BoyleSports3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -6.95%E -3.02%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -8.27%E -3.01%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-25 22:15
Paddy Power3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.38%EV -8.97%E -3.99%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.65%EV -9.94%E -3.68%K -5.85%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-25 22:25
Betr (AU)3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.38%EV -8.97%E -3.99%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.65%EV -9.94%E -3.68%K -5.85%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-25 22:20
Virgin Bet3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.64%EV -11.80%E -5.41%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.42%EV -6.61%E -2.36%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-25 22:15
LiveScore Bet3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.64%EV -11.80%E -5.41%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.42%EV -6.61%E -2.36%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-25 22:15
Betclic (FR)3.45I 28.99%NM 25.84%EV -9.66%E -2.80%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.89%EV -11.80%E -5.41%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 33.26%EV -10.61%E -3.96%K -6.31%G +0.000%12.2%2026-02-25 22:20
PlayUp3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -6.95%E -3.02%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -6.61%E -2.36%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-25 22:24
Winamax (DE)3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -8.97%E -3.99%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -6.61%E -2.36%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-25 22:20
Sky Bet3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.26%EV -10.99%E -5.00%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.68%EV -12.28%E -4.67%K -7.53%G +0.000%12.9%2026-02-25 22:25
Parions Sport (FR)3.40I 29.41%NM 25.88%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.92%EV -13.02%E -6.05%K -11.32%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.20%EV -11.61%E -4.38%K -7.04%G +0.000%13.7%2026-02-25 22:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.40I 29.41%NM 25.13%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.69%EV -15.04%E -7.16%K -13.67%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.18%EV -16.61%E -6.64%K -11.07%G +0.000%17.0%2026-02-25 22:25
PMU (FR)3.40I 29.41%NM 24.63%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 41.87%EV -19.08%E -9.54%K -19.08%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.50%EV -16.61%E -6.64%K -11.07%G +0.000%19.4%2026-02-25 22:15
Winamax (FR)3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.85%EV -13.02%E -6.05%K -11.32%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.53%EV -9.94%E -3.68%K -5.85%G +0.000%13.9%2026-02-25 22:19
NetBet (FR)3.30I 30.30%NM 26.39%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 40.13%EV -12.21%E -5.63%K -10.43%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.49%EV -13.28%E -5.11%K -8.30%G +0.000%14.8%2026-02-25 22:23
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook3.85I 25.97%NM 25.87%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.49%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.65%0.4%2026-02-25 22:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.85I 25.97%NM 25.78%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.68%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.54%0.7%2026-02-25 22:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.85I 25.97%NM 25.78%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.68%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.54%0.7%2026-02-25 22:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.85I 25.97%NM 25.78%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.68%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.54%0.7%2026-02-25 22:25
Smarkets3.80I 26.32%NM 25.89%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.65%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.46%1.7%2026-02-25 22:25