The School of Odds
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Lanus v Platense

Kickoff: 2026-04-01 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lanus (Local)

Prediction 43.59%2.29fair odd
EV -2.35%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.58%43.80%43.59%47.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.092.102.2451.81%47.85%47.62%44.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Platense (Visit)

Prediction 24.04%4.16fair odd
EV +8.16%
Edge +1.81%
Kelly +2.33%
Growth +0.190%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.94%23.83%24.21%25.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.943.854.5029.41%25.39%25.97%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.37%3.09fair odd
EV -2.88%
Edge -0.961%
Kelly -1.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.10%32.37%32.20%33.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.862.883.0038.02%34.96%34.72%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lanus (Local): 43.59%; Platense (Visit): 24.04%; Draw: 32.37%. For Platense (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.16. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.16%.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.12%EV -12.82%E -6.41%K -12.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.94%EV +8.16%E +1.81%K +2.33%G +0.190%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -4.50%E -1.53%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-01 22:40
Unibet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.40%EV -11.07%E -5.43%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.51%EV +5.76%E +1.31%K +1.69%G +0.097%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.09%EV -4.50%E -1.53%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-01 22:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.40%EV -11.07%E -5.43%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.51%EV +5.76%E +1.31%K +1.69%G +0.097%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.09%EV -4.50%E -1.53%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-01 22:54
Virgin Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.66%EV -14.99%E -7.69%K -15.78%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.41%EV +2.15%E +0.506%K +0.662%G +0.014%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.93%EV -7.74%E -2.72%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-01 22:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.66%EV -14.99%E -7.69%K -15.78%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.41%EV +2.15%E +0.506%K +0.662%G +0.014%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.93%EV -7.74%E -2.72%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-01 22:54
1xBet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.84%EV -6.71%E -3.14%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.85%EV +0.948%E +0.226%K +0.296%G +0.003%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.31%EV -3.85%E -1.30%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-01 22:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.54%EV -15.87%E -8.22%K -17.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.39%EV +0.948%E +0.226%K +0.296%G +0.003%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.08%EV -9.36%E -3.34%K -5.20%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-01 22:54
LowVig.ag🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.26%EV -6.28%E -2.92%K -5.46%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.93%EV -0.253%E -0.061%K -0.080%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.81%EV -6.12%E -2.11%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-01 22:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.26%EV -6.28%E -2.92%K -5.46%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.93%EV -0.253%E -0.061%K -0.080%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.81%EV -6.12%E -2.11%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-01 22:45
BetAnything🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.26%EV -6.28%E -2.92%K -5.46%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.93%EV -0.253%E -0.061%K -0.080%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.81%EV -6.12%E -2.11%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-01 22:55
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.63%EV -6.28%E -2.92%K -5.46%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%EV -1.46%E -0.355%K -0.469%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.50%EV -9.36%E -3.34%K -5.20%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-01 22:48
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -10.64%E -5.19%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -1.46%E -0.355%K -0.469%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.66%EV -4.50%E -1.53%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-01 21:53
Pinnacle🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 43.17%EV -2.35%E -1.05%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.94%EV -2.90%E -0.717%K -0.953%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.89%EV -4.83%E -1.64%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-01 22:50
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.96%EV -8.46%E -4.03%K -7.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -3.86%E -0.965%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.97%EV -9.36%E -3.34%K -5.20%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-01 22:44
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.69%EV -8.46%E -4.03%K -7.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -3.86%E -0.965%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.37%EV -10.98%E -3.99%K -6.27%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-01 22:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.28%E -2.92%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -6.26%E -1.61%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.96%EV -4.50%E -1.53%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-01 22:49
Everygame🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -6.28%E -2.92%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -6.26%E -1.61%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.72%EV -7.74%E -2.72%K -4.18%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-01 22:49
Betsson🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.82%EV -4.10%E -1.86%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.47%EV -7.46%E -1.94%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -6.77%E -2.35%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-01 22:44
NordicBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.82%EV -4.10%E -1.86%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.47%EV -7.46%E -1.94%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -6.77%E -2.35%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-01 22:44
Marathon Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.98%EV -5.40%E -2.49%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.29%EV -7.70%E -2.01%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -7.74%E -2.72%K -4.18%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-01 22:54
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.02%EV -4.10%E -1.86%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -8.67%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.08%EV -4.50%E -1.53%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-01 22:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.81%EV -6.28%E -2.92%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -8.67%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -2.88%E -0.961%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-01 22:50
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.75%EV -10.64%E -5.19%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.14%EV -8.67%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -4.50%E -1.53%K -2.31%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-01 13:22
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.50%EV -10.64%E -5.19%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.47%EV -8.67%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -12.59%E -4.66%K -7.41%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-01 22:50
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.12%EV -10.64%E -5.19%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.26%EV -8.67%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.61%EV -14.86%E -5.65%K -9.12%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-01 22:49
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.20%EV -6.28%E -2.92%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.77%EV -9.87%E -2.63%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.03%EV -6.12%E -2.11%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-01 22:49
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.11%EV -6.28%E -2.92%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -9.87%E -2.63%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.18%EV -6.77%E -2.35%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-01 22:45
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.96%EV -6.28%E -2.92%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -9.87%E -2.63%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.41%EV -7.74%E -2.72%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-01 22:44
NetBet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.60%EV -14.99%E -7.69%K -15.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.19%EV -9.87%E -2.63%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.21%EV -12.59%E -4.66%K -7.41%G +0.000%15.0%2026-04-01 22:44
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.23%EV -10.64%E -5.19%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.51%EV -11.07%E -2.99%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.27%EV -6.12%E -2.11%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-01 13:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 43.92%EV -11.51%E -5.67%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.23%EV -11.55%E -3.14%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.85%EV -9.36%E -3.34%K -5.20%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-01 22:46
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.08%EV -10.64%E -5.19%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.76%EV -12.27%E -3.36%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -6.12%E -2.11%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-01 22:45
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.60%EV -10.64%E -5.19%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -12.27%E -3.36%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.92%EV -9.36%E -3.34%K -5.20%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-01 22:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.54%EV -10.64%E -5.19%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.14%EV -14.67%E -4.13%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.32%EV -7.74%E -2.72%K -4.18%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-01 22:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.58%EV -12.82%E -6.41%K -12.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.05%EV -18.28%E -5.38%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.38%EV -14.86%E -5.65%K -9.12%G +0.000%17.4%2026-04-01 22:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.36%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.60%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.03%0.6%2026-04-01 22:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.36%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.60%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.03%0.6%2026-04-01 22:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.25%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.03%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.72%0.9%2026-04-01 22:55
Matchbook◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.25%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.03%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.72%0.9%2026-04-01 22:55
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 45.60%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.75%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.66%1.1%2026-04-01 22:45
Smarkets◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.15%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.28%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.57%2.0%2026-04-01 22:55