Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Lanus v Argentinos Juniors

Início: 2026-08-25 00:15 UTC

Final: Lanus 1–1 Argentinos Juniors

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

38 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Lanus (Local)

Previsão 37.53%2.66odd justa
EV +3.20%
Vantagem +1.16%
Kelly +1.83%
Crescimento +0.059%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.75

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
34.91%37.55%37.51%38.25%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.302.462.452.7543.48%40.70%40.82%36.36%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Argentinos Juniors (Visitante)

Previsão 30.40%3.29odd justa
EV +0.021%
Vantagem +0.006%
Kelly +0.009%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.29

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
29.36%30.35%30.47%32.11%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.853.043.023.2935.09%32.92%33.06%30.40%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 32.07%3.12odd justa
EV -4.43%
Vantagem -1.49%
Kelly -2.24%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.98

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
31.17%32.10%32.02%32.99%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.752.882.902.9836.36%34.72%34.48%33.56%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Lanus (Local): 37.53%; Argentinos Juniors (Visitante): 30.40%; Empate: 32.07%. Para Lanus (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.66. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 2.75, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +3.20%.

Odds das casas de apostas (38 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.91%EV +3.20%E +1.16%K +1.83%G +0.059%2.99I 33.44%NM 32.11%EV -9.10%E -3.04%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.99%EV -6.67%E -2.29%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-25 00:09
Pinnacle🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.98%EV -4.30%E -1.69%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.53%EV -0.283%E -0.086%K -0.124%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.50%EV -4.43%E -1.49%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-25 00:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.89%EV -4.30%E -1.69%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.36%EV +0.021%E +0.006%K +0.009%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.75%EV -5.39%E -1.83%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-24 23:59
LowVig.ag🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.89%EV -4.30%E -1.69%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.36%EV +0.021%E +0.006%K +0.009%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.75%EV -5.39%E -1.83%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-24 23:59
BetAnything🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.89%EV -4.30%E -1.69%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.36%EV +0.021%E +0.006%K +0.009%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.75%EV -5.39%E -1.83%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-24 23:59
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.22%EV -4.30%E -1.69%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.61%EV -5.76%E -1.86%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.17%EV -5.39%E -1.83%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-25 00:09
Codere (IT)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.03%EV -4.30%E -1.69%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.96%EV -7.28%E -2.39%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.01%EV -5.39%E -1.83%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-24 15:24
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.01%EV -4.30%E -1.69%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -5.76%E -1.86%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -6.99%E -2.41%K -3.68%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-24 15:24
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -4.30%E -1.69%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.86%EV -7.28%E -2.39%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.23%EV -6.35%E -2.18%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-25 00:09
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -4.30%E -1.69%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.86%EV -7.28%E -2.39%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.23%EV -6.35%E -2.18%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-25 00:09
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.83%EV -6.18%E -2.47%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -2.72%E -0.849%K -1.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -6.99%E -2.41%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-24 23:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.18%E -2.47%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -5.76%E -1.86%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -6.99%E -2.41%K -3.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-24 23:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.29%EV -6.18%E -2.47%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -7.28%E -2.39%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -6.99%E -2.41%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-25 00:09
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -6.18%E -2.47%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -8.80%E -2.93%K -4.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -6.99%E -2.41%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-24 15:23
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -6.18%E -2.47%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -8.80%E -2.93%K -4.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -6.99%E -2.41%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-25 00:09
FanDuel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.16%EV -8.06%E -3.29%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -5.76%E -1.86%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.69%EV -5.39%E -1.83%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-25 00:08
Unibet (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.16%EV -8.06%E -3.29%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -5.76%E -1.86%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.69%EV -5.39%E -1.83%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-24 23:54
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.16%EV -8.06%E -3.29%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -5.76%E -1.86%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.69%EV -5.39%E -1.83%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-24 23:54
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -8.06%E -3.29%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -5.76%E -1.86%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -6.99%E -2.41%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-25 00:09
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -8.06%E -3.29%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -5.76%E -1.86%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -6.99%E -2.41%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-25 00:08
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -8.06%E -3.29%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -5.76%E -1.86%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -6.99%E -2.41%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-24 23:29
Bet Right🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.38%EV -8.06%E -3.29%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -10.32%E -3.50%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -6.99%E -2.41%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-24 22:24
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.98%EV -8.06%E -3.29%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -11.84%E -4.08%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.79%EV -8.60%E -3.02%K -4.65%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-24 22:24
BetRivers🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.77%EV -8.81%E -3.62%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.59%EV -8.80%E -2.93%K -4.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.64%EV -6.99%E -2.41%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-24 23:54
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -9.93%E -4.14%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -8.80%E -2.93%K -4.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -6.99%E -2.41%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-25 00:00
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -9.93%E -4.14%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -5.76%E -1.86%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -10.20%E -3.64%K -5.67%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-25 00:00
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.97%EV -9.93%E -4.14%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -8.80%E -2.93%K -4.40%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -7.64%E -2.65%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-24 22:14
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -9.93%E -4.14%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -11.84%E -4.08%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -6.99%E -2.41%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-24 15:23
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.25%EV -9.93%E -4.14%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.37%EV -13.36%E -4.69%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.37%EV -8.60%E -3.02%K -4.65%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-24 15:24
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.83%EV -10.68%E -4.49%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -8.80%E -2.93%K -4.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.16%EV -10.20%E -3.64%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-25 00:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.83%EV -10.68%E -4.49%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -8.80%E -2.93%K -4.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.16%EV -10.20%E -3.64%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-25 00:09
Betclic (FR)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.56%EV -10.68%E -4.49%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 30.51%EV -10.92%E -3.73%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.93%EV -10.20%E -3.64%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-24 23:46
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.23%EV -10.68%E -4.49%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.55%EV -11.84%E -4.08%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.22%EV -11.80%E -4.29%K -6.75%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-24 23:54
NetBet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.41%EV -11.81%E -5.03%K -8.75%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.63%EV -12.75%E -4.44%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.97%EV -11.80%E -4.29%K -6.75%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-25 00:09
Virgin Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 37.94%EV -12.56%E -5.39%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.48%EV -11.84%E -4.08%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.57%EV -10.20%E -3.64%K -5.67%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-24 23:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 37.94%EV -12.56%E -5.39%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.48%EV -11.84%E -4.08%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.57%EV -10.20%E -3.64%K -5.67%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-24 23:54
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.25%EV -13.69%E -5.95%K -10.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.33%EV -11.84%E -4.08%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.42%EV -10.20%E -3.64%K -5.67%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-24 23:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.95%EV -13.69%E -5.95%K -10.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.31%EV -12.44%E -4.32%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.74%EV -11.80%E -4.29%K -6.75%G +0.000%14.6%2026-08-24 23:54
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.07%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.00%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%1.0%2026-08-25 00:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.07%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.00%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%1.0%2026-08-25 00:04
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.07%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.00%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%1.0%2026-08-25 00:04
Smarkets◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.08%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.23%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.69%1.8%2026-08-25 00:09
Kalshi◎2.63I 38.02%NM 37.28%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.36%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.36%2.0%2026-08-24 23:24