Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Independiente Rivadavia v Racing Club

Kickoff: 2026-08-31 00:30 UTC

Final: Independiente Rivadavia 3–1 Racing Club

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Independiente Rivadavia (Local)

Prediction 47.69%2.10fair odd
EV -3.67%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -3.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.01%47.82%47.69%49.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.941.952.0255.56%51.61%51.28%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Racing Club (Visit)

Prediction 22.81%4.38fair odd
EV +2.66%
Edge +0.592%
Kelly +0.761%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.02%22.72%22.87%24.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.554.054.004.5028.17%24.69%25.00%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.50%3.39fair odd
EV -1.18%
Edge -0.351%
Kelly -0.500%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.39%29.46%29.45%30.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.133.143.3533.90%31.90%31.85%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Independiente Rivadavia (Local): 47.69%; Racing Club (Visit): 22.81%; Draw: 29.50%. For Racing Club (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.38. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.66%.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.75%EV -7.49%E -3.86%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.45%EV +2.66%E +0.592%K +0.761%G +0.020%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.81%EV -1.18%E -0.351%K -0.500%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-31 00:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.75%EV -7.49%E -3.86%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.45%EV +2.66%E +0.592%K +0.761%G +0.020%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.81%EV -1.18%E -0.351%K -0.500%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-31 00:25
BetAnything🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.75%EV -7.49%E -3.86%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.45%EV +2.66%E +0.592%K +0.761%G +0.020%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.81%EV -1.18%E -0.351%K -0.500%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-31 00:25
SportsBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.01%EV -8.92%E -4.67%K -9.80%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV +0.382%E +0.087%K +0.112%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -7.08%E -2.25%K -3.29%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-30 23:00
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.78%EV -8.92%E -4.67%K -9.80%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.17%EV +0.382%E +0.087%K +0.112%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -8.55%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 22:59
1xBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.52%EV -3.67%E -1.82%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.38I 22.83%NM 21.91%EV -0.074%E -0.017%K -0.022%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.57%EV -7.37%E -2.35%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-31 00:20
Betsson🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.75%EV -5.58%E -2.82%K -5.70%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.24%EV -3.04%E -0.715%K -0.935%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -7.08%E -2.25%K -3.29%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-31 00:10
NordicBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.75%EV -5.58%E -2.82%K -5.70%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.24%EV -3.04%E -0.715%K -0.935%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -7.08%E -2.25%K -3.29%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-31 00:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.39%EV -5.58%E -2.82%K -5.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -4.18%E -0.995%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -8.55%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-31 00:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.34%EV -10.83%E -5.79%K -12.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -4.18%E -0.995%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -11.50%E -3.83%K -5.75%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-31 00:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.05%EV -14.16%E -7.87%K -17.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.02%EV -4.18%E -0.995%K -1.31%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.93%EV -12.98%E -4.40%K -6.65%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-31 00:04
Pinnacle🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.88%EV -3.67%E -1.82%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.19I 23.87%NM 23.08%EV -4.41%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.04%EV -1.77%E -0.530%K -0.758%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-31 00:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.83%EV -7.01%E -3.60%K -7.38%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.47%EV -5.32%E -1.28%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.70%EV -7.37%E -2.35%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-31 00:19
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.33%EV -4.63%E -2.31%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -6.46%E -1.58%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.58%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-31 00:20
Fanatics🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.96%EV -7.01%E -3.60%K -7.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -6.46%E -1.58%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-31 00:00
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.74%EV -7.01%E -3.60%K -7.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.71%EV -6.46%E -1.58%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -7.08%E -2.25%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-31 00:25
PlayUp🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.51%EV -7.01%E -3.60%K -7.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -6.46%E -1.58%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.89%EV -8.55%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-31 00:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -7.01%E -3.60%K -7.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -8.74%E -2.19%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -4.13%E -1.27%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 22:50
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -4.63%E -2.31%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -8.74%E -2.19%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -8.55%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-31 00:15
BetMGM🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.95%EV -7.97%E -4.13%K -8.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.13%EV -8.74%E -2.19%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-30 22:50
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -7.01%E -3.60%K -7.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -8.74%E -2.19%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -8.55%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-30 22:30
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -8.92%E -4.67%K -9.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -8.74%E -2.19%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-31 00:10
Paddy Power🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.89%EV -9.40%E -4.95%K -10.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -8.74%E -2.19%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.35%EV -8.55%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-31 00:25
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.10%EV -11.78%E -6.37%K -13.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -8.74%E -2.19%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -11.50%E -3.83%K -5.75%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-30 22:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.46%EV -10.35%E -5.51%K -11.76%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.59%EV -9.88%E -2.50%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 29.94%EV -12.09%E -4.06%K -6.11%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-31 00:14
Unibet (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 48.13%EV -13.21%E -7.26%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.18%EV -9.88%E -2.50%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.69%EV -12.98%E -4.40%K -6.65%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-31 00:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.36%EV -8.44%E -4.40%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -11.02%E -2.83%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -8.55%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-31 00:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.38%EV -3.67%E -1.82%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -12.17%E -3.16%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-31 00:20
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.38%EV -3.67%E -1.82%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -12.17%E -3.16%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-31 00:20
Bet Right🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.05%EV -7.01%E -3.60%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.83%EV -12.17%E -3.16%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.12%EV -7.08%E -2.25%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-30 22:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.25%EV -9.40%E -4.95%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.32%EV -12.17%E -3.16%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.43%EV -10.03%E -3.29%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-31 00:10
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.32%EV -7.01%E -3.60%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -13.31%E -3.50%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -4.13%E -1.27%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-31 00:25
BetRivers🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.65%EV -6.06%E -3.08%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -13.31%E -3.50%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.17%EV -7.08%E -2.25%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-30 22:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -7.01%E -3.60%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -13.31%E -3.50%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -8.55%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-30 22:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.01%EV -8.44%E -4.40%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.54%EV -17.87%E -4.96%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -11.50%E -3.83%K -5.75%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-31 00:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.01%EV -8.44%E -4.40%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.54%EV -17.87%E -4.96%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -11.50%E -3.83%K -5.75%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-31 00:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 46.25%EV -9.87%E -5.22%K -11.09%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.62%EV -19.01%E -5.35%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.13%EV -11.50%E -3.83%K -5.75%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-31 00:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.70%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.08%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22%0.7%2026-08-31 00:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.70%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.08%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22%0.7%2026-08-31 00:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.70%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.08%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22%0.7%2026-08-31 00:25
Kalshi2.04I 49.02%NM 48.04%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.53%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.43%2.0%2026-08-31 00:25
Smarkets2.02I 49.50%NM 48.49%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.26%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.24%2.1%2026-08-31 00:25