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Independiente Rivadavia v Independiente

Kickoff: 2026-02-21 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Independiente Rivadavia (Local)

Prediction 36.46%2.74fair odd
EV -1.57%
Edge -0.582%
Kelly -0.924%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.57%36.27%36.54%37.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.562.582.7042.55%39.05%38.76%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Independiente (Visit)

Prediction 29.88%3.35fair odd
EV +0.083%
Edge +0.025%
Kelly +0.035%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.88%30.04%29.83%32.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.033.003.3537.04%33.01%33.33%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 33.67%2.97fair odd
EV -3.03%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.63%33.69%33.62%35.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.752.752.8840.00%36.42%36.36%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Independiente Rivadavia (Local): 36.46%; Independiente (Visit): 29.88%; Draw: 33.67%. For Independiente (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.347. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.350, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.083%.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 37.06%EV -4.85%E -1.86%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.88%EV +0.083%E +0.025%K +0.035%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.06%EV -4.38%E -1.54%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-21 19:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.59%EV -2.30%E -0.858%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -2.90%E -0.894%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.06%EV -8.42%E -3.10%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-21 18:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.59%EV -2.30%E -0.858%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -2.90%E -0.894%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.06%EV -8.42%E -3.10%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-21 18:55
1xBet🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 36.42%EV -6.31%E -2.46%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.16%EV -4.10%E -1.28%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.41%EV -8.42%E -3.10%K -4.90%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-21 19:55
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.26%EV -5.22%E -2.01%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -4.40%E -1.37%K -2.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.28%EV -7.41%E -2.69%K -4.23%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-21 18:20
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -7.04%E -2.76%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -4.40%E -1.37%K -2.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -5.73%E -2.05%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 19:50
theScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -7.04%E -2.76%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -4.40%E -1.37%K -2.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -5.73%E -2.05%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 19:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -7.04%E -2.76%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.14%EV -4.40%E -1.37%K -2.00%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.29%EV -8.42%E -3.10%K -4.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-21 19:54
Betsson🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.40%EV -5.95%E -2.30%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%EV -5.89%E -1.87%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.78%EV -6.40%E -2.30%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-21 19:50
NordicBet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.40%EV -5.95%E -2.30%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%EV -5.89%E -1.87%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.78%EV -6.40%E -2.30%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-21 19:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.76%EV -7.04%E -2.76%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.76%EV -5.89%E -1.87%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.48%EV -5.73%E -2.05%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-21 19:19
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -5.22%E -2.01%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -7.39%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -7.41%E -2.69%K -4.23%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 19:51
Everygame🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -5.22%E -2.01%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -7.39%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -7.41%E -2.69%K -4.23%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 19:55
BetAnything🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -5.22%E -2.01%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -7.39%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -7.41%E -2.69%K -4.23%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 17:35
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -7.04%E -2.76%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.91%EV -7.39%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -7.41%E -2.69%K -4.23%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-21 19:50
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -8.86%E -3.54%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -7.39%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -5.73%E -2.05%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-21 19:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 36.97%EV -11.78%E -4.87%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 29.53%EV -9.48%E -3.13%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 33.51%EV -10.10%E -3.78%K -6.05%G +0.000%11.8%2026-02-21 19:33
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.07%EV -5.22%E -2.01%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.26%EV -10.37%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.67%EV -3.37%E -1.17%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-21 11:24
FanDuel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.34%EV -3.39%E -1.28%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -10.37%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.45%EV -5.73%E -2.05%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-21 11:28
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.78%EV -5.22%E -2.01%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -10.37%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.22%EV -5.73%E -2.05%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-21 11:24
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -5.22%E -2.01%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -10.37%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -9.09%E -3.37%K -5.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 09:29
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.01%EV -7.04%E -2.76%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -10.37%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.39%EV -7.41%E -2.69%K -4.23%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-21 18:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.93%EV -10.68%E -4.36%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -10.37%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -7.41%E -2.69%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.5%2026-02-21 19:19
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.71%EV -10.68%E -4.36%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.98%EV -10.37%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.31%EV -9.09%E -3.37%K -5.35%G +0.000%11.2%2026-02-21 18:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -1.57%E -0.582%K -0.924%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.08%EV -11.87%E -4.02%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.86%EV -3.03%E -1.05%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-21 19:40
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -1.57%E -0.582%K -0.924%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.08%EV -11.87%E -4.02%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.86%EV -3.03%E -1.05%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-21 19:40
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.52%EV -10.68%E -4.36%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.33%EV -11.87%E -4.02%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -9.09%E -3.37%K -5.35%G +0.000%11.8%2026-02-21 10:14
BetRivers🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.74%EV -1.57%E -0.582%K -0.924%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.35%EV -13.36%E -4.61%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -4.04%E -1.42%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-21 19:40
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -8.86%E -3.54%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -13.36%E -4.61%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.21%EV -9.09%E -3.37%K -5.35%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-21 17:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.59%EV -12.51%E -5.21%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.28%EV -13.36%E -4.61%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.13%EV -10.78%E -4.07%K -6.53%G +0.000%13.9%2026-02-21 19:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -3.39%E -1.28%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.29%EV -13.96%E -4.85%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.63%EV -4.04%E -1.42%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-21 19:40
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.79%EV -8.86%E -3.54%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -13.96%E -4.85%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -9.09%E -3.37%K -5.35%G +0.000%11.8%2026-02-21 11:30
NetBet (FR)🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 35.97%EV -11.78%E -4.87%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.55%EV -14.85%E -5.21%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.48%EV -12.46%E -4.79%K -7.79%G +0.000%14.9%2026-02-21 19:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.79%EV -5.22%E -2.01%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.31%EV -16.35%E -5.84%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -7.41%E -2.69%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.5%2026-02-21 19:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.79%EV -5.22%E -2.01%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.31%EV -16.35%E -5.84%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -7.41%E -2.69%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.5%2026-02-21 19:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.57%EV -8.86%E -3.54%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.86%EV -16.35%E -5.84%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.57%EV -15.83%E -6.33%K -10.55%G +0.000%15.7%2026-02-21 11:29
PMU (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 35.58%EV -14.33%E -6.10%K -10.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.97%EV -19.34%E -7.16%K -11.37%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.45%EV -15.83%E -6.33%K -10.55%G +0.000%19.6%2026-02-21 19:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.61%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.07%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.32%1.2%2026-02-21 19:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.04%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.98%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.98%1.5%2026-02-21 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.04%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.98%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.98%1.5%2026-02-21 19:55
Matchbook◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.04%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.98%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.98%1.5%2026-02-21 19:55
Smarkets◎2.62I 38.17%NM 36.72%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.16%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.12%3.9%2026-02-21 19:55