The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Independiente Rivadavia v Argentinos Juniors

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 18:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Independiente Rivadavia (Local)

Prediction 31.74%3.15fair odd
EV -0.033%
Edge -0.010%
Kelly -0.015%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.19%31.69%31.65%32.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.902.903.1537.04%34.43%34.48%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Argentinos Juniors (Visit)

Prediction 35.38%2.83fair odd
EV -0.946%
Edge -0.338%
Kelly -0.526%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.64%35.40%35.42%37.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.642.652.8040.82%37.92%37.74%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.89%3.04fair odd
EV -4.30%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -2.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.84%32.91%32.93%34.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.802.812.9138.46%35.67%35.59%34.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Independiente Rivadavia (Local): 31.74%; Argentinos Juniors (Visit): 35.38%; Draw: 32.89%. For Independiente Rivadavia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.151. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.150, with an expected value of -0.033%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%EV -0.033%E -0.010%K -0.015%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.22%EV -4.48%E -1.66%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.58%EV -9.56%E -3.48%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 18:05
BetOnline.ag🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%EV -0.033%E -0.010%K -0.015%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.22%EV -4.48%E -1.66%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.58%EV -9.56%E -3.48%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 18:05
Pinnacle🎯3.06I 32.68%NM 31.60%EV -2.89%E -0.944%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.17%EV -2.72%E -0.987%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.23%EV -4.30%E -1.48%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-11 18:15
1xBet🎯3.04I 32.89%NM 31.57%EV -3.52%E -1.16%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.52%EV -1.65%E -0.595%K -0.929%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.91%EV -6.93%E -2.45%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-11 18:24
DraftKings🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.61%EV -4.79%E -1.60%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.12%EV -4.48%E -1.66%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.27%EV -6.27%E -2.20%K -3.39%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-11 14:54
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -4.79%E -1.60%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.55%EV -6.25%E -2.36%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -6.27%E -2.20%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 18:24
theScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -4.79%E -1.60%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -8.02%E -3.09%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -4.62%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 18:05
NordicBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.29%EV -4.79%E -1.60%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.42%EV -6.25%E -2.36%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.29%EV -7.26%E -2.57%K -3.99%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-11 18:20
Betsson🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.29%EV -4.79%E -1.60%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.42%EV -6.25%E -2.36%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.29%EV -7.26%E -2.57%K -3.99%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-11 18:20
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -4.79%E -1.60%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -11.56%E -4.62%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -5.28%E -1.83%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 18:24
Marathon Bet🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 31.50%EV -6.06%E -2.05%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.19%EV -6.25%E -2.36%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -7.91%E -2.83%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 18:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -6.38%E -2.16%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -6.25%E -2.36%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.88%EV -6.27%E -2.20%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-11 18:05
BetAnything🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -6.38%E -2.16%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -6.25%E -2.36%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.88%EV -6.27%E -2.20%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-11 18:20
Everygame🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -6.38%E -2.16%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.15%EV -6.25%E -2.36%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.27%EV -7.91%E -2.83%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 18:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.42%EV -7.97%E -2.75%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.82%EV -4.48%E -1.66%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.76%EV -5.61%E -1.96%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-11 14:54
Bovada🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.35%EV -7.97%E -2.75%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.74%EV -4.48%E -1.66%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -6.27%E -2.20%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-11 18:06
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -7.97%E -2.75%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -6.25%E -2.36%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -4.62%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-11 18:10
SportsBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -7.97%E -2.75%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.22%EV -7.31%E -2.79%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.96%EV -7.91%E -2.83%K -4.40%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-11 11:15
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -7.97%E -2.75%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.40%EV -8.02%E -3.09%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -7.91%E -2.83%K -4.40%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-11 18:25
Unibet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.90%EV -8.60%E -2.99%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.84%EV -0.946%E -0.338%K -0.526%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.25%EV -6.27%E -2.20%K -3.39%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-11 18:09
Unibet (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.90%EV -8.60%E -2.99%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.84%EV -0.946%E -0.338%K -0.526%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.25%EV -6.27%E -2.20%K -3.39%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-11 18:10
BetRivers🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -8.60%E -2.99%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -0.946%E -0.338%K -0.526%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -7.91%E -2.83%K -4.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 18:09
BetMGM🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.29%EV -8.60%E -2.99%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -6.25%E -2.36%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.63%EV -6.27%E -2.20%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-11 14:53
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.50%EV -8.60%E -2.99%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.89%EV -8.02%E -3.09%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.60%EV -11.20%E -4.15%K -6.59%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-11 18:25
Bet Right🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -9.55%E -3.35%K -5.16%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.40%EV -8.02%E -3.09%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -6.27%E -2.20%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 18:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 31.54%EV -10.19%E -3.60%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.00%EV -12.27%E -4.95%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.46%EV -9.56%E -3.48%K -5.46%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-11 18:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -11.14%E -3.98%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.94%EV -4.48%E -1.66%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -9.56%E -3.48%K -5.46%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-11 18:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -11.14%E -3.98%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.94%EV -4.48%E -1.66%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -9.56%E -3.48%K -5.46%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-11 18:05
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -11.14%E -3.98%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -8.02%E -3.09%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -7.91%E -2.83%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-11 18:08
Winamax (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.46%EV -11.14%E -3.98%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.64%EV -9.79%E -3.84%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.89%EV -6.27%E -2.20%K -3.39%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-11 18:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.28%EV -11.14%E -3.98%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -9.79%E -3.84%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.28%EV -7.91%E -2.83%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-11 18:10
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -11.14%E -3.98%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -11.56%E -4.62%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.85%EV -11.20%E -4.15%K -6.59%G +0.000%12.8%2026-04-11 11:14
Unibet (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.45%EV -11.14%E -3.98%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.94%EV -13.33%E -5.44%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.61%EV -11.20%E -4.15%K -6.59%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-11 18:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.72%EV -12.73%E -4.63%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.95%EV -6.25%E -2.36%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.33%EV -11.20%E -4.15%K -6.59%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-11 18:05
NetBet (FR)🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 31.91%EV -13.68%E -5.03%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.71%EV -11.56%E -4.62%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.38%EV -14.49%E -5.57%K -9.06%G +0.000%15.2%2026-04-11 18:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.43%EV -14.31%E -5.30%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.74%EV -13.33%E -5.44%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.84%EV -9.56%E -3.48%K -5.46%G +0.000%14.2%2026-04-11 18:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.51%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.19%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.30%0.8%2026-04-11 18:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.51%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.19%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.30%0.8%2026-04-11 18:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.51%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.19%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.30%0.8%2026-04-11 18:20
Matchbook◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.51%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.19%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.30%0.8%2026-04-11 18:15
Smarkets◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.70%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.10%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.20%1.8%2026-04-11 18:25
Kalshi◎3.03I 33.00%NM 32.36%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.29%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.35%2.0%2026-04-11 18:05