The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Independiente v Racing Club

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 20:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Independiente (Local)

Prediction 38.85%2.57fair odd
EV -2.87%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -1.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.05%38.83%38.83%40.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.372.382.5044.44%42.19%42.02%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Racing Club (Visit)

Prediction 28.87%3.46fair odd
EV +0.196%
Edge +0.056%
Kelly +0.079%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.42%28.94%28.90%30.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.193.203.4734.72%31.31%31.25%28.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.27%3.10fair odd
EV -3.18%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.24%32.23%32.27%33.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.882.903.0038.02%34.78%34.48%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Independiente (Local): 38.85%; Racing Club (Visit): 28.87%; Draw: 32.27%. For Racing Club (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.46. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.47, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.196%.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.98%EV -7.53%E -3.17%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.42%EV +0.196%E +0.056%K +0.079%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.59%EV -5.76%E -1.97%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 20:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.98%EV -7.53%E -3.17%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.42%EV +0.196%E +0.056%K +0.079%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.59%EV -5.76%E -1.97%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 20:00
Pinnacle🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 39.18%EV -4.04%E -1.63%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.46%EV -1.83%E -0.537%K -0.761%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 32.36%EV -3.50%E -1.17%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-04 20:20
Fanatics🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -4.81%E -1.97%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -4.71%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -6.41%E -2.21%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-04 20:04
Unibet (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.77%EV -7.53%E -3.17%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -4.71%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.55%EV -3.18%E -1.06%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-04 19:49
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.77%EV -7.53%E -3.17%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -4.71%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.55%EV -3.18%E -1.06%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-04 19:49
BetRivers🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.07%EV -8.70%E -3.70%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -4.71%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -3.18%E -1.06%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 19:49
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -6.76%E -2.82%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -4.71%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -6.41%E -2.21%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-04 19:59
Betsson🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -7.53%E -3.17%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -4.71%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.14%EV -5.76%E -1.97%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 20:14
NordicBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -7.53%E -3.17%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -4.71%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.14%EV -5.76%E -1.97%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 20:15
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -6.76%E -2.82%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.37%EV -4.71%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.62%EV -7.37%E -2.57%K -3.94%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 20:09
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.48%EV -4.81%E -1.97%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -6.16%E -1.89%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.51%EV -6.41%E -2.21%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-04 20:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.48%EV -4.81%E -1.97%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -6.16%E -1.89%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.51%EV -6.41%E -2.21%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-04 20:00
Everygame🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.75%EV -6.76%E -2.82%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62%EV -6.16%E -1.89%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.63%EV -8.02%E -2.81%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 20:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.89%EV -6.76%E -2.82%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.81%EV -6.45%E -1.99%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 32.30%EV -6.73%E -2.33%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 20:15
1xBet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.52%EV -5.59%E -2.30%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.98%EV -6.73%E -2.08%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.50%EV -7.05%E -2.45%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 20:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.31%EV -4.81%E -1.97%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -7.60%E -2.38%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -6.41%E -2.21%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-04 20:00
BetAnything🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.31%EV -4.81%E -1.97%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -7.60%E -2.38%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -6.41%E -2.21%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-04 20:15
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -6.76%E -2.82%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -7.60%E -2.38%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -6.41%E -2.21%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-04 20:00
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.30%EV -8.70%E -3.70%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -7.60%E -2.38%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -6.41%E -2.21%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 20:14
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.37%EV -10.64%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -7.60%E -2.38%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -9.63%E -3.44%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-04 20:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.84%EV -11.42%E -5.01%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.84%EV -9.04%E -2.87%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.32%EV -6.41%E -2.21%K -3.37%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-04 19:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.84%EV -11.42%E -5.01%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.84%EV -9.04%E -2.87%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.32%EV -6.41%E -2.21%K -3.37%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-04 19:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.94%EV -12.58%E -5.59%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.53%EV -9.04%E -2.87%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.53%EV -8.02%E -2.81%K -4.33%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-04 19:50
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -4.81%E -1.97%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -10.49%E -3.38%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -6.41%E -2.21%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-04 20:00
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -2.87%E -1.15%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -10.49%E -3.38%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -9.63%E -3.44%K -5.35%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 19:54
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -6.76%E -2.82%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -10.49%E -3.38%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -7.05%E -2.45%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 20:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.93%EV -8.70%E -3.70%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -10.49%E -3.38%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -6.41%E -2.21%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-04 20:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.13%EV -11.42%E -5.01%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -10.49%E -3.38%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 32.09%EV -10.28%E -3.70%K -5.77%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-04 20:04
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -10.64%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -10.49%E -3.38%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -11.25%E -4.09%K -6.43%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-04 20:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -12.58%E -5.59%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -10.49%E -3.38%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -11.25%E -4.09%K -6.43%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-04 20:05
Bet Right🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.25%EV -6.76%E -2.82%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.10%EV -11.93%E -3.91%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -6.41%E -2.21%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-04 20:04
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -8.70%E -3.70%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -13.38%E -4.46%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -6.41%E -2.21%K -3.37%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-04 20:04
NetBet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.71%EV -12.58%E -5.59%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.03%EV -13.38%E -4.46%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.26%EV -12.86%E -4.76%K -7.56%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-04 20:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.97%EV -12.58%E -5.59%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.72%EV -14.82%E -5.02%K -7.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.31%EV -9.63%E -3.44%K -5.35%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-04 20:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.41%EV -10.64%E -4.63%K -8.19%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.88%EV -16.84%E -5.85%K -8.96%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.72%EV -15.12%E -5.75%K -9.28%G +0.000%16.2%2026-04-04 20:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.54I 39.37%NM 39.24%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.08%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.68%0.3%2026-04-04 20:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.54I 39.37%NM 39.24%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.08%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.68%0.3%2026-04-04 20:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.54I 39.37%NM 39.24%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.08%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.68%0.3%2026-04-04 20:09
Matchbook◎2.54I 39.37%NM 39.24%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.08%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.68%0.3%2026-04-04 20:05
Smarkets◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.09%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.33%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.58%2.3%2026-04-04 20:24