Idioma:Español
Independiente v Independiente Rivadavia
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Independiente (Local)
Predicción 39.10%2.56momio equitativo
EV +0.091%
Ventaja +0.036%
Kelly +0.058%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.56
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.55%39.21%39.17%41.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.102.352.382.5647.62%42.58%42.02%39.06%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Independiente Rivadavia (Visitante)
Predicción 28.80%3.47momio equitativo
EV +2.24%
Ventaja +0.631%
Kelly +0.879%
Crecimiento +0.020%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.55
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.45%28.68%28.76%31.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.883.243.303.5534.72%30.84%30.30%28.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 32.10%3.12momio equitativo
EV -3.37%
Ventaja -1.12%
Kelly -1.68%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.01
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.56%32.11%32.07%33.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.702.882.903.0137.04%34.71%34.48%33.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Independiente (Local): 39.10%; Independiente Rivadavia (Visitante): 28.80%; Empate: 32.10%. Para Independiente Rivadavia (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.47. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.55, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.24%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (37 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.73%EV -12.03%E -5.35%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV +2.24%E +0.631%K +0.879%G +0.020% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.83%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-22 21:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.73%EV -12.03%E -5.35%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV +2.24%E +0.631%K +0.879%G +0.020% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.83%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-22 21:14 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%EV -13.98%E -6.36%K -11.65%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -0.640%E -0.185%K -0.261%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.66%EV -6.90%E -2.38%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-22 21:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.25%EV -6.16%E -2.57%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -2.08%E -0.612%K -0.867%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -8.51%E -2.99%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-22 21:23 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.21%EV -5.38%E -2.22%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.07%EV -2.66%E -0.786%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.72%EV -6.90%E -2.38%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-22 21:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -5.38%E -2.22%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.32%EV -3.52%E -1.05%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.49%EV -6.26%E -2.14%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-22 21:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -5.38%E -2.22%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.32%EV -3.52%E -1.05%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.49%EV -6.26%E -2.14%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-22 21:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -8.12%E -3.46%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.77%EV -3.52%E -1.05%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.64%EV -8.51%E -2.99%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-22 21:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.83%EV +0.091%E +0.036%K +0.058%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 29.00%EV -3.81%E -1.14%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.17%EV -6.26%E -2.14%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-22 21:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%EV -6.95%E -2.92%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 27.94%EV -3.81%E -1.14%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 32.86%EV -8.83%E -3.11%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-22 21:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.64%EV -2.25%E -0.902%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.27%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.01I 33.22%NM 32.09%EV -3.37%E -1.12%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-22 21:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.64%EV -2.25%E -0.902%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.27%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.01I 33.22%NM 32.09%EV -3.37%E -1.12%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-22 21:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.64%EV -2.25%E -0.902%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.27%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.01I 33.22%NM 32.09%EV -3.37%E -1.12%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-22 21:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.36%EV -6.16%E -2.57%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.02%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-22 21:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.94%EV -5.38%E -2.22%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -6.90%E -2.38%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-22 21:24 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.92%EV -6.16%E -2.57%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.77%EV -8.51%E -2.99%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-22 21:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 41.67%EV -17.11%E -8.07%K -15.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.77%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.55%EV -10.11%E -3.61%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-08-22 21:14 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 41.67%EV -17.11%E -8.07%K -15.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.77%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.55%EV -10.11%E -3.61%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-08-22 21:14 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.67%EV -17.89%E -8.52%K -16.27%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.52%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.82%EV -11.72%E -4.26%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-08-22 21:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.16%E -2.57%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -3.69%E -1.23%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-22 21:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -6.16%E -2.57%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -6.90%E -2.38%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-22 21:24 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -10.07%E -4.38%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -11.72%E -4.26%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-22 21:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -10.07%E -4.38%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -11.72%E -4.26%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-22 21:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -6.95%E -2.92%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -3.69%E -1.23%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-22 21:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%EV -6.95%E -2.92%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-22 21:23 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -6.16%E -2.57%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -6.90%E -2.38%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-22 21:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.30%EV -8.12%E -3.46%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -6.90%E -2.38%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-22 21:19 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.43%EV -12.03%E -5.35%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.72%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.85%EV -13.32%E -4.94%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-22 21:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 39.31%EV -11.25%E -4.95%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 28.60%EV -10.14%E -3.25%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 32.10%EV -10.76%E -3.87%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-22 21:24 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -10.07%E -4.38%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -3.69%E -1.23%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-22 21:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -10.07%E -4.38%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -6.90%E -2.38%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-22 21:24 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.85%EV -13.98%E -6.36%K -11.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.28%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.88%EV -11.72%E -4.26%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-08-22 21:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.05%EV -10.07%E -4.38%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.44%EV -12.16%E -3.99%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.51%EV -8.51%E -2.99%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-22 21:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 38.94%EV -12.03%E -5.35%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.20%EV -13.60%E -4.53%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.86%EV -11.72%E -4.26%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-08-22 21:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.38%EV -4.21%E -1.72%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -15.04%E -5.10%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -6.90%E -2.38%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-22 21:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.98%EV -4.21%E -1.72%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -16.48%E -5.68%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.79%EV -8.51%E -2.99%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-22 21:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -2.25%E -0.902%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.73%EV -17.06%E -5.92%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.73%EV -7.55%E -2.62%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-22 21:03 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.60% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67% | 1.0% | 2026-08-22 21:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.75% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.39% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.86% | 1.4% | 2026-08-22 21:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.75% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.39% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.86% | 1.4% | 2026-08-22 21:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.75% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.39% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.86% | 1.4% | 2026-08-22 21:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.91% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.17% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.92% | 4.4% | 2026-08-22 21:25 |