The School of Odds
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Independiente v Boca Juniors

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 20:00 UTC

Final: Independiente 0–1 Boca Juniors

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Independiente (Local)

Prediction 23.61%4.23fair odd
EV +6.26%
Edge +1.39%
Kelly +1.79%
Growth +0.112%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.44%23.54%23.51%25.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.953.904.5028.17%25.31%25.64%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Boca Juniors (Visit)

Prediction 46.23%2.16fair odd
EV -2.91%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -2.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.84%46.31%46.29%48.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.992.002.1054.64%50.29%50.00%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.15%3.32fair odd
EV -1.71%
Edge -0.523%
Kelly -0.755%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.95%30.15%30.20%31.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.063.103.2634.72%32.63%32.26%30.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Independiente (Local): 23.61%; Boca Juniors (Visit): 46.23%; Draw: 30.15%. For Independiente (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.23. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.26%.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.44%EV +6.26%E +1.39%K +1.79%G +0.112%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.97%EV -8.92%E -4.53%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.59%EV -1.71%E -0.523%K -0.755%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-25 19:39
BetOnline.ag🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.44%EV +6.26%E +1.39%K +1.79%G +0.112%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.97%EV -8.92%E -4.53%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.59%EV -1.71%E -0.523%K -0.755%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-25 19:45
BetAnything🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.44%EV +6.26%E +1.39%K +1.79%G +0.112%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.97%EV -8.92%E -4.53%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.59%EV -1.71%E -0.523%K -0.755%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-25 19:40
1xBet🎯4.47I 22.37%NM 21.48%EV +5.56%E +1.24%K +1.60%G +0.089%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.24%EV -7.99%E -4.02%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.28%EV -4.42%E -1.39%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-25 19:55
FanDuel🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV +1.54%E +0.358%K +0.467%G +0.007%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.91%EV -7.53%E -3.77%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -9.55%E -3.18%K -4.77%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-25 19:39
Pinnacle🎯4.26I 23.47%NM 22.70%EV +0.596%E +0.140%K +0.183%G +0.001%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.50%EV -3.83%E -1.84%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.80%EV -5.32%E -1.70%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-25 19:33
SportsBet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.08%EV +0.360%E +0.085%K +0.111%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.15%EV -7.99%E -4.02%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -8.04%E -2.64%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-25 19:40
DraftKings🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -3.18%E -0.776%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.11%EV -7.53%E -3.77%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.91%EV -5.02%E -1.59%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-25 19:55
Betsson🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -3.18%E -0.776%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.64%EV -6.61%E -3.27%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -6.53%E -2.11%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-25 19:50
NordicBet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -3.18%E -0.776%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.64%EV -6.61%E -3.27%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -6.53%E -2.11%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-25 19:50
Fanatics🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -3.18%E -0.776%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.88%EV -7.53%E -3.77%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -6.53%E -2.11%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-25 19:55
Unibet (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.71%EV -3.18%E -0.776%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.26%EV -8.92%E -4.53%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -6.53%E -2.11%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-25 19:55
Unibet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -5.54%E -1.39%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.12%EV -5.68%E -2.79%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -6.53%E -2.11%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-25 19:55
Bovada🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -5.54%E -1.39%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -5.22%E -2.55%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -8.04%E -2.64%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-25 19:54
Betway🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -5.54%E -1.39%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -7.53%E -3.77%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -6.53%E -2.11%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-25 19:55
Marathon Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -5.54%E -1.39%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.53%EV -7.53%E -3.77%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.21%EV -7.13%E -2.32%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-25 19:50
Paddy Power🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.35%EV -5.54%E -1.39%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.81%EV -11.69%E -6.12%K -12.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -12.56%E -4.33%K -6.61%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-25 19:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.35%EV -5.54%E -1.39%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.81%EV -11.69%E -6.12%K -12.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -12.56%E -4.33%K -6.61%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-25 19:45
Codere (IT)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -7.90%E -2.03%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.83%EV -4.76%E -2.31%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.97%EV -5.02%E -1.59%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-25 19:50
Unibet (UK)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -7.90%E -2.03%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.73%EV -5.22%E -2.55%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.24%EV -6.53%E -2.11%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-25 19:50
Sky Bet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.75%EV -7.90%E -2.03%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.45%EV -11.69%E -6.12%K -12.85%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.80%EV -13.16%E -4.57%K -7.00%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-25 19:49
PlayUp🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.00%EV -9.09%E -2.36%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.20%EV -7.53%E -3.77%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.80%EV -6.53%E -2.11%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-25 19:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -10.27%E -2.70%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -2.91%E -1.38%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -6.53%E -2.11%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-25 19:21
BetRivers🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -10.27%E -2.70%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.83%EV -7.53%E -3.77%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.05%EV -8.04%E -2.64%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-25 19:45
BoyleSports🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -10.27%E -2.70%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -7.53%E -3.77%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -9.55%E -3.18%K -4.77%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-25 19:54
NetBet (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.42%EV -10.27%E -2.70%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.11%EV -10.77%E -5.58%K -11.58%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.48%EV -11.96%E -4.10%K -6.23%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-25 19:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 22.98%EV -10.27%E -2.70%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 46.70%EV -13.54%E -7.24%K -15.57%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.32%EV -13.16%E -4.57%K -7.00%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-25 19:55
BetMGM🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -11.45%E -3.05%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -5.22%E -2.55%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -6.53%E -2.11%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-25 19:21
theScore Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -11.45%E -3.05%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -5.22%E -2.55%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -6.53%E -2.11%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-25 19:50
Virgin Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -11.45%E -3.05%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 45.72%EV -9.38%E -4.79%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.38%EV -11.05%E -3.75%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-25 19:55
LiveScore Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -11.45%E -3.05%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 45.72%EV -9.38%E -4.79%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.38%EV -11.05%E -3.75%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-25 19:55
Bet Right🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -13.81%E -3.78%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -5.22%E -2.55%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -6.53%E -2.11%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-25 19:32
Winamax (DE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -13.81%E -3.78%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.06%EV -8.46%E -4.27%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.95%EV -5.02%E -1.59%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-25 19:50
Unibet (FR)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 23.63%EV -13.81%E -3.78%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 47.13%EV -15.39%E -8.41%K -18.54%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.24%EV -11.05%E -3.75%K -5.67%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-25 19:50
betfred_uk🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -14.99%E -4.16%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -7.53%E -3.77%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -6.53%E -2.11%K -3.11%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-25 19:32
Betr (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -14.99%E -4.16%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.22%EV -7.53%E -3.77%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.65%EV -8.04%E -2.64%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-25 19:33
Betclic (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.36%EV -14.99%E -4.16%K -5.76%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 45.91%EV -11.69%E -6.12%K -12.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.73%EV -11.05%E -3.75%K -5.67%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-25 19:50
Winamax (FR)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.16%EV -16.17%E -4.55%K -6.34%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 45.56%EV -9.38%E -4.79%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.28%EV -8.04%E -2.64%K -3.92%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-25 19:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.60I 21.74%NM 21.61%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.80%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.59%0.6%2026-10-25 19:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.60I 21.74%NM 21.61%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.80%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.59%0.6%2026-10-25 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.57%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44%1.1%2026-10-25 19:55
Smarkets◎4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.34%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.77%1.5%2026-10-25 19:55
Kalshi◎4.35I 22.99%NM 22.53%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.12%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.35%2.0%2026-10-25 19:50