The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Independiente v Boca Juniors

2026-10-25 20:00 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Independiente (Local)

Prediction 23.97%4.17fair odd
EV -3.17%
Edge -0.785%
Kelly -1.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.25%23.97%24.57%26.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.743.754.0430.30%26.72%26.67%24.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Boca Juniors (Visit)

Prediction 47.16%2.12fair odd
EV -2.85%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -2.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.62%47.16%46.69%48.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.921.952.0657.47%52.08%51.28%48.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.87%3.46fair odd
EV -4.72%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -2.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.42%28.87%28.73%30.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.093.083.3034.48%32.31%32.52%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Independiente (Local): 23.97%; Boca Juniors (Visit): 47.16%; Draw: 28.87%. For Boca Juniors (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.12. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.06, with an expected value of -2.85%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.04I 24.75%NM 23.52%EV -3.17%E -0.785%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.12%EV -2.85%E -1.38%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.36%EV -9.63%E -3.08%K -4.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-11 22:49
Betclic (FR)🎯3.98I 25.13%NM 22.26%EV -4.61%E -1.16%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.41%EV -13.70%E -7.48%K -16.50%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 29.33%EV -12.81%E -4.24%K -6.34%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-11 22:39
Fanatics🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -8.93%E -2.35%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -5.68%E -2.84%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -4.72%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-11 23:10
Winamax (DE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.20%EV -8.93%E -2.35%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 47.90%EV -13.22%E -7.19%K -15.74%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.90%EV -11.94%E -3.91%K -5.82%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-11 22:34
Unibet (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 22.25%EV -8.93%E -2.35%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 48.59%EV -17.94%E -10.31%K -24.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.16%EV -16.27%E -5.61%K -8.56%G +0.000%18.3%2026-10-11 22:39
SportsBet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -11.32%E -3.06%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.01%EV -4.26%E -2.10%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-11 23:04
FanDuel🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -11.32%E -3.06%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -5.68%E -2.84%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -7.61%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-11 23:04
Winamax (FR)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 23.32%EV -11.32%E -3.06%K -4.19%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 47.93%EV -15.11%E -8.39%K -18.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.76%EV -13.38%E -4.46%K -6.69%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-11 22:34
Paddy Power🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -13.72%E -3.81%K -5.28%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -8.04%E -4.12%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -10.50%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-11 23:04
Sky Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.37%EV -20.91%E -6.34%K -9.09%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 44.62%EV -8.04%E -4.12%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.01%EV -13.38%E -4.46%K -6.69%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-11 23:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.