The School of Odds
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Gimnasia Mendoza v Talleres

Kickoff: 2026-08-18 00:30 UTC

Final: Gimnasia Mendoza 3–1 Talleres

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gimnasia Mendoza (Local)

Prediction 31.03%3.22fair odd
EV -2.25%
Edge -0.715%
Kelly -1.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.08%31.06%31.03%33.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.953.003.1537.74%33.91%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Talleres (Visit)

Prediction 36.35%2.75fair odd
EV -1.86%
Edge -0.691%
Kelly -1.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.40%36.45%36.36%38.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.562.552.7041.67%39.07%39.22%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.62%3.07fair odd
EV -2.13%
Edge -0.711%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.08%32.49%32.60%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.672.852.883.0037.45%35.09%34.72%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gimnasia Mendoza (Local): 31.03%; Talleres (Visit): 36.35%; Draw: 32.62%. For Talleres (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.75. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.70, with an expected value of -1.86%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.73%EV -2.25%E -0.715%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.12%EV -2.59%E -0.967%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.15%EV -4.74%E -1.62%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-18 00:25
BetOnline.ag🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.66%EV -2.25%E -0.715%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.04%EV -2.59%E -0.967%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.30%EV -5.39%E -1.86%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-17 22:54
LowVig.ag🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.66%EV -2.25%E -0.715%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.04%EV -2.59%E -0.967%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.30%EV -5.39%E -1.86%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-17 22:50
BetAnything🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.66%EV -2.25%E -0.715%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.04%EV -2.59%E -0.967%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.30%EV -5.39%E -1.86%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-17 22:50
Fanatics🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.66%EV -3.80%E -1.23%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.56%EV -5.50%E -2.12%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.78%EV -5.39%E -1.86%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-17 23:40
BetMGM🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -3.80%E -1.23%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -12.77%E -5.32%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -2.13%E -0.711%K -1.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-17 22:08
DraftKings🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.05%EV -5.36%E -1.76%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.73%EV -3.68%E -1.39%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.22%EV -7.03%E -2.47%K -3.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-18 00:20
Codere (IT)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.01%EV -5.36%E -1.76%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.38%EV -5.50%E -2.12%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -5.39%E -1.86%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-18 00:25
NordicBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.86%EV -5.36%E -1.76%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -7.32%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.23%EV -4.74%E -1.62%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-18 00:22
Betsson🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.86%EV -5.36%E -1.76%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -7.32%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.23%EV -4.74%E -1.62%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-18 00:25
Marathon Bet🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 30.91%EV -6.29%E -2.08%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 35.76%EV -5.14%E -1.97%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.66%E -3.09%K -4.81%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-18 00:24
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.55%EV -3.68%E -1.39%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -7.03%E -2.47%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-18 00:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.13%E -3.65%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -2.13%E -0.711%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-18 00:25
Bovada🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -7.32%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.22%EV -5.39%E -1.86%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-18 00:23
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -7.32%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.22%EV -5.39%E -1.86%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-18 00:20
theScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -7.32%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.22%EV -5.39%E -1.86%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-18 00:25
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.60%EV -4.77%E -1.82%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -8.66%E -3.09%K -4.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-18 00:20
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.78%EV -5.50%E -2.12%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.22%EV -8.66%E -3.09%K -4.81%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-18 00:19
Bet Right🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -10.01%E -3.45%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.05%EV -7.32%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.25%EV -7.03%E -2.47%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-17 15:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -10.01%E -3.45%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -10.95%E -4.47%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -5.39%E -1.86%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-18 00:24
BoyleSports🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -10.01%E -3.45%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -12.77%E -5.32%K -9.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -5.39%E -1.86%K -2.84%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-17 22:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.76%EV -10.01%E -3.45%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.16%EV -12.77%E -5.32%K -9.12%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 32.08%EV -9.31%E -3.35%K -5.23%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-18 00:20
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.73%EV -10.63%E -3.69%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -9.13%E -3.65%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.73%EV -6.05%E -2.10%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-18 00:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.48%EV -10.63%E -3.69%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.55%EV -7.32%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -10.29%E -3.74%K -5.88%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-18 00:24
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.26%EV -10.63%E -3.69%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -9.13%E -3.65%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -10.29%E -3.74%K -5.88%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-18 00:20
Sky Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -10.63%E -3.69%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.79%EV -9.13%E -3.65%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -11.92%E -4.41%K -7.01%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-18 00:19
Unibet (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -11.56%E -4.06%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.74%EV -1.86%E -0.691%K -1.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.35%EV -5.39%E -1.86%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-18 00:24
Unibet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -11.56%E -4.06%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.74%EV -1.86%E -0.691%K -1.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.35%EV -5.39%E -1.86%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-18 00:24
Betr (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.67%EV -11.56%E -4.06%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.10%EV -9.13%E -3.65%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -8.66%E -3.09%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-17 15:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.37%EV -11.56%E -4.06%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.25%EV -12.77%E -5.32%K -9.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.37%EV -7.03%E -2.47%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-18 00:20
NetBet (FR)🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 31.18%EV -12.49%E -4.43%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.89%EV -10.95%E -4.47%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 32.93%EV -12.90%E -4.83%K -7.72%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-18 00:24
BetRivers🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.82%EV -13.11%E -4.68%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.94%EV -4.41%E -1.68%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.24%EV -7.03%E -2.47%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-18 00:14
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.89%EV -16.22%E -6.01%K -9.54%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.82%EV -7.32%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.29%EV -10.29%E -3.74%K -5.88%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-18 00:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.89%EV -16.22%E -6.01%K -9.54%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.82%EV -7.32%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.29%EV -10.29%E -3.74%K -5.88%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-18 00:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.10%EV -17.77%E -6.70%K -10.77%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.40%EV -7.32%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.49%EV -11.92%E -4.41%K -7.01%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-18 00:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.51%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.96%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.54%0.8%2026-08-18 00:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.51%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.96%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.54%0.8%2026-08-18 00:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.51%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.96%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.54%0.8%2026-08-18 00:25
Smarkets◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.42%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.12%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.45%1.0%2026-08-18 00:25

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