The School of Odds
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Gimnasia Mendoza v Estudiantes

Kickoff: 2026-03-18 00:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gimnasia Mendoza (Local)

Prediction 23.43%4.27fair odd
EV -0.420%
Edge -0.099%
Kelly -0.129%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.74%23.51%23.36%24.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.893.854.2527.78%25.72%25.97%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Estudiantes (Visit)

Prediction 43.54%2.30fair odd
EV -2.04%
Edge -0.906%
Kelly -1.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.99%43.43%43.57%44.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.122.152.2552.63%47.20%46.51%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 33.03%3.03fair odd
EV -4.21%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -2.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.70%33.06%33.07%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.802.822.9040.00%35.71%35.46%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gimnasia Mendoza (Local): 23.43%; Estudiantes (Visit): 43.54%; Draw: 33.03%. For Gimnasia Mendoza (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.27. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.25, with an expected value of -0.420%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.74%EV -0.420%E -0.099%K -0.129%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.93%EV -4.21%E -1.92%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.33%EV -4.21%E -1.45%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-18 00:00
BetOnline.ag🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 22.95%EV -2.76%E -0.666%K -0.877%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.29%EV -4.21%E -1.92%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.77%EV -6.85%E -2.43%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-17 22:05
LowVig.ag🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 22.95%EV -2.76%E -0.666%K -0.877%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.29%EV -4.21%E -1.92%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.77%EV -6.85%E -2.43%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-17 22:05
DraftKings🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -3.93%E -0.960%K -1.27%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.88%EV -6.39%E -2.97%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -5.86%E -2.06%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-18 00:00
FanDuel🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -3.93%E -0.960%K -1.27%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.46%EV -8.57%E -4.08%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.76%EV -5.86%E -2.06%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-18 00:00
Marathon Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -3.93%E -0.960%K -1.27%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.36%EV -6.39%E -2.97%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.90%EV -9.17%E -3.33%K -5.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-18 00:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -6.28%E -1.57%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.73%EV -6.39%E -2.97%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.76%EV -5.20%E -1.81%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-17 17:15
Unibet (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -6.28%E -1.57%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.63%EV -6.39%E -2.97%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.92%EV -5.86%E -2.06%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-18 00:00
Bovada🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -6.28%E -1.57%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.38%EV -6.39%E -2.97%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -7.51%E -2.68%K -4.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-17 23:58
BetAnything🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -6.28%E -1.57%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.38%EV -6.39%E -2.97%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -7.51%E -2.68%K -4.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-18 00:00
BoyleSports🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -6.28%E -1.57%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -6.39%E -2.97%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -9.17%E -3.33%K -5.24%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-17 17:00
SportsBet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.28%E -1.57%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.96%EV -8.57%E -4.08%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.97%EV -7.51%E -2.68%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-18 00:00
Betsson🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -8.62%E -2.21%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.62%EV -6.39%E -2.97%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.34%EV -4.21%E -1.45%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-18 00:00
NordicBet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -8.62%E -2.21%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.62%EV -6.39%E -2.97%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.34%EV -4.21%E -1.45%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-18 00:00
BetMGM🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -8.62%E -2.21%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -6.39%E -2.97%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.72%EV -5.86%E -2.06%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-17 17:15
Unibet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.47%EV -9.79%E -2.54%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.82%EV -4.21%E -1.92%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -4.87%E -1.69%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-18 00:00
Unibet (SE)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.47%EV -9.79%E -2.54%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.82%EV -4.21%E -1.92%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -4.87%E -1.69%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-18 00:00
BetRivers🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.47%EV -9.79%E -2.54%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.82%EV -4.21%E -1.92%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -4.87%E -1.69%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-18 00:00
Fanatics🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -10.96%E -2.89%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.99%EV -2.04%E -0.906%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.15%EV -5.86%E -2.06%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-17 21:25
Winamax (DE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.88%EV -10.96%E -2.89%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.27%EV -10.75%E -5.24%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.84%EV -5.86%E -2.06%K -3.17%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-18 00:00
Paddy Power🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -10.96%E -2.89%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.77%EV -10.75%E -5.24%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.62%EV -9.17%E -3.33%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-18 00:00
Sky Bet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.47%EV -10.96%E -2.89%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.50%EV -10.75%E -5.24%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -10.82%E -4.01%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-18 00:00
Bet Right🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -12.14%E -3.24%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -8.57%E -4.08%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -4.21%E -1.45%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-17 22:40
NetBet (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.17%EV -12.14%E -3.24%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 43.66%EV -13.36%E -6.71%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.16%EV -13.46%E -5.14%K -8.31%G +0.000%15.1%2026-03-18 00:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 22.78%EV -12.14%E -3.24%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 44.73%EV -16.84%E -8.82%K -18.51%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.49%EV -13.13%E -4.99%K -8.05%G +0.000%17.0%2026-03-18 00:00
Virgin Bet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.69%EV -13.31%E -3.60%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.69%EV -6.83%E -3.19%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -7.51%E -2.68%K -4.17%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-18 00:00
LiveScore Bet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.69%EV -13.31%E -3.60%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.69%EV -6.83%E -3.19%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -7.51%E -2.68%K -4.17%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-18 00:00
Betr (AU)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -13.31%E -3.60%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.57%E -4.08%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.36%EV -7.51%E -2.68%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-17 22:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.60%EV -14.48%E -3.97%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.75%EV -8.57%E -4.08%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -9.17%E -3.33%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-18 00:00
Winamax (FR)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 23.94%EV -14.48%E -3.97%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.69%EV -12.92%E -6.46%K -12.92%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.37%EV -10.82%E -4.01%K -6.36%G +0.000%14.4%2026-03-18 00:00
PMU (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 23.07%EV -15.65%E -4.35%K -6.02%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 43.71%EV -17.28%E -9.09%K -19.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.22%EV -17.42%E -6.97%K -11.62%G +0.000%20.4%2026-03-18 00:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.57%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.33%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.10%0.7%2026-03-18 00:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.48%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.55%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.97%1.1%2026-03-18 00:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.48%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.55%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.97%1.1%2026-03-18 00:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.48%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.55%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.97%1.1%2026-03-18 00:00
Smarkets◎4.30I 23.26%NM 22.82%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.81%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.38%1.9%2026-03-18 00:00