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Gimnasia Mendoza v Boca Juniors
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Gimnasia Mendoza (Local)
Prediction 17.82%5.61fair odd
EV -3.75%
Edge -0.695%
Kelly -0.853%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.46%17.84%17.81%19.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.095.205.4022.22%19.65%19.23%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Boca Juniors (Visit)
Prediction 53.73%1.86fair odd
EV -4.36%
Edge -2.45%
Kelly -5.59%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.78
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.87%53.87%53.69%55.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.701.711.7862.50%58.95%58.65%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.44%3.52fair odd
EV -1.87%
Edge -0.541%
Kelly -0.762%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.17%28.29%28.50%28.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.273.253.4533.33%30.62%30.77%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gimnasia Mendoza (Local): 17.82%; Boca Juniors (Visit): 53.73%; Draw: 28.44%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.52. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.45, with an expected value of -1.87%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.46%EV -3.75%E -0.695%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.81%EV -7.58%E -4.41%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -3.29%E -0.967%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-26 00:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.46%EV -3.75%E -0.695%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.81%EV -7.58%E -4.41%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -3.29%E -0.967%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-26 00:44 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.69%EV -5.53%E -1.04%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -8.66%E -5.09%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -1.87%E -0.541%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-27 00:08 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.69%EV -5.53%E -1.04%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -8.66%E -5.09%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -1.87%E -0.541%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-27 00:08 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.29I 18.90%NM 17.95%EV -5.71%E -1.08%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.35%EV -4.36%E -2.45%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 3.31I 30.21%NM 28.69%EV -5.85%E -1.77%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 17:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.00%EV -6.43%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.38%EV -4.89%E -2.77%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.63%EV -6.13%E -1.86%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-24 08:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -6.43%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.17%EV -7.04%E -4.07%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.98%EV -4.71%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-23 18:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.81%EV -6.43%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.42%EV -5.97%E -3.41%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -7.56%E -2.32%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-29 20:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV -6.43%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.57%EV -6.51%E -3.74%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -7.56%E -2.32%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-29 20:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.97%EV -7.32%E -1.41%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.71%EV -6.51%E -3.74%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -6.13%E -1.86%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-29 20:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.95%EV -7.32%E -1.41%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -5.97%E -3.41%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -7.56%E -2.32%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-29 17:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.80%EV -7.32%E -1.41%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.14%EV -8.12%E -4.75%K -11.43%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -6.13%E -1.86%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-23 18:24 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.78%EV -7.32%E -1.41%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -7.58%E -4.41%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -7.56%E -2.32%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-23 20:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.65%EV -7.32%E -1.41%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.96%EV -10.27%E -6.15%K -15.33%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -4.71%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-27 00:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.42%EV -10.88%E -2.18%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.24%EV -7.04%E -4.07%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.34%EV -7.56%E -2.32%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-23 18:13 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -10.88%E -2.18%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -8.66%E -5.09%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -6.13%E -1.86%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-27 20:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.08%EV -10.88%E -2.18%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.12%EV -10.27%E -6.15%K -15.33%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -7.56%E -2.32%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-23 18:24 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.95I 20.20%NM 17.76%EV -11.77%E -2.38%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 53.60%EV -11.88%E -7.24%K -18.56%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 28.64%EV -12.68%E -4.13%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-08-29 20:04 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.08%EV -12.66%E -2.58%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.67%EV -12.95%E -8.00%K -20.89%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.25%EV -7.56%E -2.32%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-27 00:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.08%EV -12.66%E -2.58%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.67%EV -12.95%E -8.00%K -20.89%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.25%EV -7.56%E -2.32%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-27 00:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.88%EV -12.66%E -2.58%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 54.75%EV -14.03%E -8.77%K -23.38%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.37%EV -8.98%E -2.81%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-08-27 00:09 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.66%EV -16.23%E -3.45%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 53.49%EV -11.88%E -7.24%K -18.56%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.85%EV -10.40%E -3.30%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-08-23 19:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 18.70%EV -18.01%E -3.92%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 53.10%EV -12.95%E -8.00%K -20.89%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.20%EV -13.24%E -4.34%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 16.3% | 2026-08-23 19:59 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.25%EV -19.79%E -4.40%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 51.87%EV -10.27%E -6.15%K -15.33%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.88%EV -14.67%E -4.89%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-08-23 18:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.28% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 52.70% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 29.02% | 16.4% | 2026-08-27 20:10 |