Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gimnasia Mendoza v Boca Juniors

2026-09-06 20:00 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

18%

54%

28%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gimnasia Mendoza (Local)

Prediction 18.00%5.55fair odd

EV -5.49%

Edge -1.04%

Kelly -1.29%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

17.78%18.00%17.82%19.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.504.925.005.2522.22%20.34%20.00%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Boca Juniors (Visit)

Prediction 53.71%1.86fair odd

EV -7.07%

Edge -4.09%

Kelly -9.69%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

51.87%53.71%53.81%54.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.611.681.671.7362.11%59.60%59.88%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.28%3.54fair odd

EV -5.25%

Edge -1.57%

Kelly -2.24%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.81%28.28%28.37%28.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.003.183.253.3533.33%31.47%30.77%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Gimnasia Mendoza (Local): 18.00%; Boca Juniors (Visit): 53.71%; Draw: 28.28%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.54. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.35, with an expected value of -5.25%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
SportsBet🎯	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -5.49%E -1.04%K -1.29%G +0.000%	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.17%EV -7.07%E -4.09%K -9.69%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 27.98%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.24%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-08-23 18:24
FanDuel🎯	5.20I 19.23%NM 17.80%EV -6.39%E -1.23%K -1.52%G +0.000%	1.71I 58.48%NM 54.14%EV -8.15%E -4.76%K -11.48%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -6.67%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-08-23 18:24
Codere (IT)🎯	5.20I 19.23%NM 17.78%EV -6.39%E -1.23%K -1.52%G +0.000%	1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -7.61%E -4.42%K -10.57%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -8.08%E -2.49%K -3.59%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-08-23 20:04
BoyleSports🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.42%EV -9.99%E -2.00%K -2.50%G +0.000%	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.24%EV -7.07%E -4.09%K -9.69%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.34%EV -8.08%E -2.49%K -3.59%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-08-23 18:13
Paddy Power🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.08%EV -9.99%E -2.00%K -2.50%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 54.12%EV -10.30%E -6.17%K -15.37%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -8.08%E -2.49%K -3.59%G +0.000%	10.6%	2026-08-23 18:24
Betclic (FR)🎯	4.80I 20.83%NM 17.92%EV -13.59%E -2.83%K -3.58%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 53.42%EV -13.52%E -8.40%K -22.16%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 28.67%EV -15.15%E -5.05%K -7.58%G +0.000%	16.3%	2026-08-23 19:59
Winamax (DE)🎯	4.70I 21.28%NM 18.66%EV -15.39%E -3.27%K -4.16%G +0.000%	1.64I 60.98%NM 53.49%EV -11.91%E -7.26%K -18.61%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 27.85%EV -10.91%E -3.46%K -5.07%G +0.000%	14.0%	2026-08-23 19:59
Winamax (FR)🎯	4.60I 21.74%NM 18.70%EV -17.19%E -3.74%K -4.77%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 53.10%EV -12.98%E -8.01%K -20.94%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 28.20%EV -13.74%E -4.50%K -6.70%G +0.000%	16.3%	2026-08-23 19:59
Sky Bet🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 19.25%EV -18.99%E -4.22%K -5.43%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 51.87%EV -10.30%E -6.17%K -15.37%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 28.88%EV -15.15%E -5.05%K -7.58%G +0.000%	15.4%	2026-08-23 18:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.