Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gimnasia La Plata v Sarmiento de Junin

2026-10-23 22:00 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

52%

20%

28%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gimnasia La Plata (Local)

Prediction 52.06%1.92fair odd

EV -5.25%

Edge -2.88%

Kelly -6.40%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

49.96%52.06%52.06%52.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.611.731.731.8262.11%57.77%57.80%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sarmiento de Junin (Visit)

Prediction 20.41%4.90fair odd

EV -3.26%

Edge -0.688%

Kelly -0.872%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

19.96%20.41%20.41%22.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.904.324.334.7425.64%23.12%23.09%21.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.53%3.63fair odd

EV -5.03%

Edge -1.46%

Kelly -2.05%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.13%27.53%27.53%27.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.103.263.253.4532.26%30.63%30.77%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Gimnasia La Plata (Local): 52.06%; Sarmiento de Junin (Visit): 20.41%; Draw: 27.53%. For Sarmiento de Junin (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.90. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.74, with an expected value of -3.26%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.82I 54.95%NM 52.23%EV -5.25%E -2.88%K -6.40%G +0.000%	4.74I 21.10%NM 20.05%EV -3.26%E -0.688%K -0.872%G +0.000%	3.43I 29.15%NM 27.71%EV -5.58%E -1.63%K -2.29%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-10-11 22:40
SportsBet🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.04%EV -6.29%E -3.49%K -7.86%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.81%EV -8.16%E -1.81%K -2.33%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -5.03%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-10-11 22:39
FanDuel🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.83%EV -6.29%E -3.49%K -7.86%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -8.16%E -1.81%K -2.33%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.40%E -1.88%K -2.67%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-10-11 22:43
Paddy Power🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 51.69%EV -8.89%E -5.08%K -11.85%G +0.000%	4.33I 23.09%NM 20.89%EV -11.63%E -2.69%K -3.49%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 27.41%EV -9.16%E -2.77%K -3.98%G +0.000%	10.5%	2026-10-11 22:39
Sky Bet🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 49.96%EV -9.93%E -5.74%K -13.61%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 22.16%EV -20.41%E -5.23%K -7.04%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 27.88%EV -14.66%E -4.73%K -6.98%G +0.000%	15.7%	2026-10-11 22:59
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 51.87%EV -11.49%E -6.76%K -16.42%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 21.00%EV -14.28%E -3.40%K -4.46%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 27.13%EV -10.53%E -3.24%K -4.68%G +0.000%	13.4%	2026-10-12 00:14
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 52.30%EV -12.01%E -7.11%K -17.41%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 20.09%EV -10.20%E -2.32%K -3.00%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 27.62%EV -11.91%E -3.72%K -5.41%G +0.000%	13.1%	2026-10-12 00:20
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 51.46%EV -12.54%E -7.46%K -18.43%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 21.09%EV -16.32%E -3.98%K -5.27%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 27.45%EV -13.28%E -4.22%K -6.18%G +0.000%	15.7%	2026-10-12 00:14
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 52.68%EV -16.18%E -10.05%K -26.52%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 19.96%EV -13.26%E -3.12%K -4.08%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 27.36%EV -14.66%E -4.73%K -6.98%G +0.000%	17.9%	2026-10-12 00:14

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.