The School of Odds
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Gimnasia La Plata v Sarmiento de Junin

Kickoff: 2026-10-23 21:00 UTC

Final: Gimnasia La Plata 2–0 Sarmiento de Junin

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gimnasia La Plata (Local)

Prediction 58.07%1.72fair odd
EV -3.61%
Edge -2.18%
Kelly -5.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.03%58.11%58.12%59.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.591.601.6668.03%63.04%62.50%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sarmiento de Junin (Visit)

Prediction 18.09%5.53fair odd
EV +5.47%
Edge +0.939%
Kelly +1.13%
Growth +0.062%

assuming max odds 5.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.48%18.09%18.02%19.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.705.165.205.8321.28%19.39%19.23%17.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.84%4.19fair odd
EV -2.24%
Edge -0.547%
Kelly -0.724%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.79%23.80%23.86%24.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.883.884.1027.78%25.80%25.81%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gimnasia La Plata (Local): 58.07%; Sarmiento de Junin (Visit): 18.09%; Draw: 23.84%. For Sarmiento de Junin (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.53. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.83, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.47%.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.57%EV -4.77%E -2.91%K -7.46%G +0.000%5.83I 17.15%NM 16.48%EV +5.47%E +0.939%K +1.13%G +0.062%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -8.20%E -2.13%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-23 20:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.90%EV -4.77%E -2.91%K -7.46%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.25%EV +1.31%E +0.234%K +0.285%G +0.004%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.85%EV -3.44%E -0.848%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-23 20:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.90%EV -4.77%E -2.91%K -7.46%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.25%EV +1.31%E +0.234%K +0.285%G +0.004%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.85%EV -3.44%E -0.848%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-23 20:35
BetAnything🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.90%EV -4.77%E -2.91%K -7.46%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.25%EV +1.31%E +0.234%K +0.285%G +0.004%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.85%EV -3.44%E -0.848%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-23 20:35
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.29%EV -7.68%E -4.83%K -13.01%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.14%EV -0.498%E -0.090%K -0.111%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -4.63%E -1.16%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-23 20:30
Pinnacle🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.20%EV -3.61%E -2.18%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.89%EV -2.31%E -0.427%K -0.524%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.91%EV -3.67%E -0.909%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-23 20:55
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.12%EV -7.10%E -4.43%K -11.83%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.52%EV -2.31%E -0.427%K -0.524%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.36%EV -3.44%E -0.848%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-23 20:30
NordicBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.11%EV -5.93%E -3.66%K -9.57%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -2.31%E -0.427%K -0.524%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -8.20%E -2.13%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-23 20:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.90%EV -9.42%E -6.04%K -16.82%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -2.31%E -0.427%K -0.524%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -2.24%E -0.547%K -0.724%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-23 20:55
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.36%EV -5.93%E -3.66%K -9.57%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.01%EV -5.02%E -0.956%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -4.63%E -1.16%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-23 20:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.01%EV -5.93%E -3.66%K -9.57%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.90%EV -5.02%E -0.956%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -7.01%E -1.80%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-23 20:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.16%EV -6.51%E -4.05%K -10.68%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.83%EV -5.02%E -0.956%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.01%EV -7.01%E -1.80%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-23 20:35
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.16%EV -6.51%E -4.05%K -10.68%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.83%EV -5.02%E -0.956%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.01%EV -7.01%E -1.80%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-23 20:30
Bet Right🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.40%EV -8.84%E -5.63%K -15.50%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.47%EV -5.02%E -0.956%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -9.40%E -2.47%K -3.36%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-23 20:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.34%EV -10.00%E -6.45%K -18.18%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.22%EV -5.02%E -0.956%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -11.78%E -3.18%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-23 20:55
SportsBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.76%EV -5.35%E -3.28%K -8.50%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.10%EV -5.93%E -1.14%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -7.01%E -1.80%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-23 20:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.08%EV -5.93%E -3.66%K -9.57%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.10%EV -5.93%E -1.14%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -5.82%E -1.47%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-23 20:35
Bovada🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.91%EV -5.93%E -3.66%K -9.57%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.04%EV -5.93%E -1.14%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -7.01%E -1.80%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-23 20:35
Unibet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.56%EV -7.10%E -4.43%K -11.83%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -5.93%E -1.14%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -4.63%E -1.16%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-23 20:55
FanDuel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.06%EV -6.51%E -4.05%K -10.68%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -5.93%E -1.14%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -7.01%E -1.80%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-23 20:54
BetRivers🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.12%EV -10.00%E -6.45%K -18.18%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.97%EV -7.73%E -1.52%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -4.63%E -1.16%K -1.54%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-23 20:45
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.99%EV -6.51%E -4.05%K -10.68%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -4.63%E -1.16%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-23 20:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.13%EV -5.35%E -3.28%K -8.50%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.25%EV -8.44%E -2.20%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-23 20:54
theScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.13%EV -5.93%E -3.66%K -9.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.36%EV -9.40%E -2.47%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-23 20:34
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.62%EV -7.10%E -4.43%K -11.83%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -8.20%E -2.13%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-23 20:55
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.71%EV -8.84%E -5.63%K -15.50%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -10.59%E -2.82%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-23 20:55
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.71%EV -8.84%E -5.63%K -15.50%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -10.59%E -2.82%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-23 20:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.71%EV -8.84%E -5.63%K -15.50%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -10.59%E -2.82%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-23 20:55
BoyleSports🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.21%EV -10.00%E -6.45%K -18.18%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.05%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.74%EV -9.40%E -2.47%K -3.36%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-23 19:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.86%EV -11.74%E -7.72%K -22.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.24%EV -8.20%E -2.13%K -2.88%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-23 20:44
Virgin Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.86%EV -11.74%E -7.72%K -22.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.24%EV -8.20%E -2.13%K -2.88%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-23 20:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 59.33%EV -14.06%E -9.50%K -29.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.56%EV -9.54%E -1.91%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.11%EV -9.40%E -2.47%K -3.36%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-23 20:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.83%EV -8.26%E -5.23%K -14.24%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.04%EV -13.16%E -2.74%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.13%EV -5.82%E -1.47%K -1.97%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-23 20:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.22%EV -10.00%E -6.45%K -18.18%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.48%EV -13.16%E -2.74%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.30%EV -12.97%E -3.55%K -4.90%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-23 20:55
Sky Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.03%EV -10.00%E -6.45%K -18.18%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.42%EV -13.16%E -2.74%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.55%EV -14.16%E -3.93%K -5.45%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-23 20:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 58.51%EV -14.64%E -9.96%K -31.16%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 17.92%EV -13.16%E -2.74%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.57%EV -12.97%E -3.55%K -4.90%G +0.000%16.3%2026-10-23 20:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.35%EV -11.16%E -7.29%K -21.06%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.47%EV -14.07%E -2.96%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 24.17%EV -13.45%E -3.71%K -5.11%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-23 20:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.57%EV -9.42%E -6.04%K -16.82%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.11%EV -14.97%E -3.19%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.33%EV -8.20%E -2.13%K -2.88%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-23 20:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.34%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.61%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.05%1.4%2026-10-23 20:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.34%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.61%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.05%1.4%2026-10-23 20:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.16%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.87%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.97%1.7%2026-10-23 20:55
Kalshi◎1.67I 59.88%NM 58.79%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.66%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.55%1.8%2026-10-23 20:45
Smarkets◎1.68I 59.52%NM 58.14%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.44%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.42%2.4%2026-10-23 20:55