The School of Odds
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Deportivo Riestra v Estudiantes

Kickoff: 2026-08-09 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Deportivo Riestra (Local)

Prediction 29.27%3.42fair odd
EV -1.96%
Edge -0.584%
Kelly -0.832%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.61%29.04%29.27%30.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.143.153.3535.71%31.87%31.75%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Estudiantes (Visit)

Prediction 37.16%2.69fair odd
EV -3.38%
Edge -1.30%
Kelly -2.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.30%37.23%37.19%38.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.472.502.6043.48%40.54%40.00%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 33.57%2.98fair odd
EV -3.31%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -1.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.75%33.73%33.54%34.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.722.752.8840.00%36.73%36.36%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Deportivo Riestra (Local): 29.27%; Estudiantes (Visit): 37.16%; Draw: 33.57%. For Deportivo Riestra (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.42. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.35, with an expected value of -1.96%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Codere (IT)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.62%EV -1.96%E -0.584%K -0.832%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.46%EV -8.22%E -3.33%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.92%EV -11.03%E -4.16%K -6.69%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-30 20:50
1xBet🎯3.27I 30.58%NM 29.04%EV -4.30%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 36.67%EV -3.76%E -1.45%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.29%EV -7.00%E -2.53%K -3.96%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 01:14
NordicBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.26%EV -4.88%E -1.50%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.73%EV -6.36%E -2.52%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.01%EV -3.31%E -1.15%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 11:44
Betsson🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.26%EV -4.88%E -1.50%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.73%EV -6.36%E -2.52%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.01%EV -3.31%E -1.15%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 11:44
Marathon Bet🎯3.22I 31.06%NM 28.97%EV -5.76%E -1.79%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 36.73%EV -5.61%E -2.21%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.30%EV -8.68%E -3.19%K -5.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-02 01:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -6.35%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.48%EV -3.38%E -1.30%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.88%EV -5.99%E -2.14%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 15:09
Fanatics🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.35%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.62%EV -7.10%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -4.32%E -1.51%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-31 06:19
Bovada🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -6.35%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -5.24%E -2.06%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -7.67%E -2.79%K -4.38%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-02 01:24
Betclic (FR)🎯3.17I 31.55%NM 27.61%EV -7.22%E -2.28%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.06%EV -14.53%E -6.32%K -11.18%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.33%EV -14.39%E -5.64%K -9.28%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-01 20:05
SportsBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -7.81%E -2.48%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.22%EV -7.10%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.23%EV -5.99%E -2.14%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-30 20:50
BetMGM🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.91%EV -9.27%E -2.99%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -5.24%E -2.06%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -7.67%E -2.79%K -4.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-01 20:03
FanDuel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -9.27%E -2.99%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -7.10%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -5.99%E -2.14%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-30 20:50
BoyleSports🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -9.27%E -2.99%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -7.10%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -7.67%E -2.79%K -4.38%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-30 20:49
Winamax (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.25%EV -9.27%E -2.99%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.07%EV -14.53%E -6.32%K -11.18%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.68%EV -12.71%E -4.89%K -7.94%G +0.000%14.2%2026-07-30 20:50
Unibet (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 27.87%EV -9.27%E -2.99%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.57%EV -14.53%E -6.32%K -11.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.56%EV -16.07%E -6.43%K -10.71%G +0.000%15.7%2026-07-30 20:50
Winamax (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 28.39%EV -10.74%E -3.52%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.65%EV -14.53%E -6.32%K -11.18%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.96%EV -14.39%E -5.64%K -9.28%G +0.000%15.5%2026-07-30 20:49
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -12.20%E -4.07%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -7.10%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -5.99%E -2.14%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-30 20:50
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.98%EV -12.20%E -4.07%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.71%EV -8.96%E -3.66%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.31%EV -9.35%E -3.46%K -5.50%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-30 20:50
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.85%EV -18.05%E -6.45%K -10.03%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.30%EV -11.56%E -4.86%K -8.38%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.85%EV -11.70%E -4.45%K -7.18%G +0.000%15.8%2026-08-02 15:08
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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