The School of Odds
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CA Tigre BA v Gimnasia La Plata

Kickoff: 2026-03-02 00:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CA Tigre BA (Local)

Prediction 46.00%2.17fair odd
EV -3.39%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -3.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.27%45.98%46.05%46.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.802.012.022.1055.56%49.69%49.50%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gimnasia La Plata (Visit)

Prediction 22.57%4.43fair odd
EV +1.58%
Edge +0.351%
Kelly +0.451%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.14%22.59%22.56%23.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.054.004.5027.78%24.71%25.00%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.42%3.18fair odd
EV -3.22%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.45%31.43%31.39%32.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.932.943.0838.46%34.16%34.01%32.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CA Tigre BA (Local): 46.00%; Gimnasia La Plata (Visit): 22.57%; Draw: 31.42%. For Gimnasia La Plata (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.43. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.58%.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.17%EV -5.23%E -2.54%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.14%EV +1.58%E +0.351%K +0.451%G +0.007%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.69%EV -8.56%E -2.94%K -4.48%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-02 00:04
BetOnline.ag🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.17%EV -5.23%E -2.54%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.14%EV +1.58%E +0.351%K +0.451%G +0.007%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.69%EV -8.56%E -2.94%K -4.48%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-02 00:14
Pinnacle🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.96%EV -5.23%E -2.54%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.47I 22.37%NM 21.64%EV +0.902%E +0.202%K +0.260%G +0.002%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.41%EV -3.22%E -1.05%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-02 00:14
Everygame🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.73%EV -7.99%E -4.00%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.59%EV -2.26%E -0.522%K -0.678%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -7.31%E -2.48%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-02 00:08
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.66%EV -7.99%E -4.00%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -2.94%E -0.683%K -0.890%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -7.31%E -2.48%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-02 00:14
1xBet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.12%EV -6.61%E -3.26%K -6.42%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.03%EV -4.06%E -0.956%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.85%EV -7.62%E -2.59%K -3.93%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-02 00:14
Marathon Bet🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 46.37%EV -7.53%E -3.75%K -7.46%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -4.06%E -0.956%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.70%EV -7.62%E -2.59%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-02 00:14
Unibet (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.69%E -2.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.48%EV -5.19%E -1.24%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.47%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-02 00:14
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.91%EV -7.99%E -4.00%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -5.19%E -1.24%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.76%EV -4.16%E -1.36%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-02 00:14
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.99%E -4.00%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -5.19%E -1.24%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-02 00:13
BetAnything🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.99%E -4.00%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -5.19%E -1.24%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-02 00:14
SportsBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.17%EV -7.99%E -4.00%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -5.19%E -1.24%K -1.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -8.88%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-02 00:04
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.17%EV -7.99%E -4.00%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -5.19%E -1.24%K -1.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -8.88%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-02 00:14
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.20%EV -3.39%E -1.61%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV -7.45%E -1.82%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.64%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-01 21:59
NordicBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.67%EV -5.69%E -2.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.12%EV -8.58%E -2.12%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.21%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-02 00:04
Betsson🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.67%EV -5.69%E -2.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.12%EV -8.58%E -2.12%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.21%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-02 00:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -5.69%E -2.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -9.71%E -2.43%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-02 00:04
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.67%EV -7.99%E -4.00%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -9.71%E -2.43%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -8.88%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-01 23:59
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.79%EV -10.29%E -5.28%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.32%EV -9.71%E -2.43%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.89%EV -12.02%E -4.29%K -6.68%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-02 00:04
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -3.39%E -1.61%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -10.84%E -2.74%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-02 00:14
BetRivers🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -3.39%E -1.61%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -10.84%E -2.74%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-02 00:14
Unibet (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -3.39%E -1.61%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -10.84%E -2.74%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-02 00:14
Betclic (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.22%EV -11.21%E -5.81%K -12.05%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 22.70%EV -11.29%E -2.87%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.08%EV -9.82%E -3.42%K -5.25%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-02 00:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.03%EV -4.77%E -2.30%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -11.96%E -3.07%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-02 00:14
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.27%EV -5.69%E -2.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -11.96%E -3.07%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-02 00:14
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.13%EV -8.91%E -4.50%K -9.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -11.96%E -3.07%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-02 00:14
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.53%EV -10.29%E -5.28%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.76%EV -11.96%E -3.07%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.71%EV -12.02%E -4.29%K -6.68%G +0.000%12.6%2026-03-02 00:14
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.17%EV -11.67%E -6.08%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.73%EV -11.96%E -3.07%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.10%EV -10.45%E -3.67%K -5.65%G +0.000%12.8%2026-03-02 00:14
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.66%EV -5.69%E -2.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.78%EV -13.09%E -3.40%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.88%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-02 00:14
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.27%EV -5.69%E -2.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.88%EV -14.22%E -3.74%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.84%EV -10.45%E -3.67%K -5.65%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-02 00:04
Virgin Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.88%EV -7.07%E -3.50%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.86%EV -14.22%E -3.74%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.26%EV -8.88%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-02 00:14
LiveScore Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.88%EV -7.07%E -3.50%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.86%EV -14.22%E -3.74%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.26%EV -8.88%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-02 00:14
PMU (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 46.17%EV -17.19%E -9.55%K -21.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 21.87%EV -14.22%E -3.74%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 31.96%EV -18.30%E -7.04%K -11.44%G +0.000%20.3%2026-03-02 00:14
Winamax (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 45.61%EV -11.67%E -6.08%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.67%EV -16.48%E -4.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.73%EV -10.45%E -3.67%K -5.65%G +0.000%14.2%2026-03-02 00:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 44.68%EV -12.13%E -6.35%K -13.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.71%EV -18.74%E -5.20%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.61%EV -15.16%E -5.62%K -8.92%G +0.000%17.2%2026-03-02 00:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.32%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.54%0.6%2026-03-02 00:14
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.10%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.40%1.1%2026-03-02 00:14
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.10%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.40%1.1%2026-03-02 00:14
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.10%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.40%1.1%2026-03-02 00:14
Smarkets◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.10%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.30%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.60%2.1%2026-03-02 00:14