The School of Odds
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Atlético Tucuman v Banfield

Kickoff: 2026-04-26 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlético Tucuman (Local)

Prediction 45.77%2.18fair odd
EV -3.87%
Edge -1.84%
Kelly -3.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.39%45.72%45.75%46.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.012.002.1052.63%49.64%50.00%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Banfield (Visit)

Prediction 24.76%4.04fair odd
EV -2.46%
Edge -0.625%
Kelly -0.838%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.13%24.79%24.69%26.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.693.703.9430.77%27.11%27.03%25.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.47%3.39fair odd
EV -2.75%
Edge -0.833%
Kelly -1.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.54%29.49%29.56%30.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.133.153.3034.48%31.93%31.75%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atlético Tucuman (Local): 45.77%; Banfield (Visit): 24.76%; Draw: 29.47%. For Banfield (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.04. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.94, with an expected value of -2.46%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.91%EV -3.87%E -1.84%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -7.17%E -1.91%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -7.17%E -2.28%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 23:04
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -3.87%E -1.84%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -8.40%E -2.27%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -8.64%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 02:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.76%EV -4.79%E -2.30%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.40%EV -3.45%E -0.885%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.84%EV -5.99%E -1.88%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-22 16:59
LowVig.ag🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.76%EV -4.79%E -2.30%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.40%EV -3.45%E -0.885%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.84%EV -5.99%E -1.88%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-22 16:59
Unibet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.84%EV -5.25%E -2.54%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -5.93%E -1.56%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -4.22%E -1.30%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-16 23:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.84%EV -5.25%E -2.54%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -5.93%E -1.56%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -4.22%E -1.30%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-16 23:19
Pinnacle🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.16%EV -5.71%E -2.77%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.13%EV -2.46%E -0.625%K -0.838%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.71%EV -5.70%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 23:05
BetRivers🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.60%EV -5.71%E -2.77%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -7.17%E -1.91%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -5.70%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-16 23:20
Fanatics🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.28%EV -6.16%E -3.01%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -5.93%E -1.56%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -2.75%E -0.833%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-20 07:15
Betsson🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.80%EV -6.16%E -3.01%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%EV -4.69%E -1.22%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%EV -7.17%E -2.28%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-21 01:45
NordicBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.80%EV -6.16%E -3.01%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%EV -4.69%E -1.22%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%EV -7.17%E -2.28%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-21 01:45
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.72%EV -6.16%E -3.01%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -7.17%E -1.91%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.29%EV -5.70%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 19:14
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.66%EV -6.16%E -3.01%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -5.93%E -1.56%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -7.17%E -2.28%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 23:04
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -6.16%E -3.01%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -10.88%E -3.02%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -5.70%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 19:04
PlayUp🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.69%EV -6.16%E -3.01%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -8.40%E -2.27%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.54%EV -11.59%E -3.86%K -5.79%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-22 23:09
1xBet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.90%EV -6.62%E -3.25%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.38%EV -4.94%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -7.17%E -2.28%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-24 00:14
Marathon Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.14%EV -7.54%E -3.73%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.27%EV -4.94%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.59%EV -7.17%E -2.28%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-24 00:09
SportsBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.45%E -4.23%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.07%EV -8.40%E -2.27%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -4.22%E -1.30%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-19 21:15
BetMGM🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.33%EV -8.45%E -4.23%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -7.17%E -1.91%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -5.70%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-19 21:10
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -8.45%E -4.23%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -8.40%E -2.27%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -5.70%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-19 21:19
Everygame🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -8.45%E -4.23%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -7.17%E -1.91%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -8.64%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-24 03:15
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -8.45%E -4.23%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -10.88%E -3.02%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -5.70%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-23 07:02
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -8.45%E -4.23%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -10.88%E -3.02%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -5.70%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-21 23:00
Bet Right🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.65%EV -8.45%E -4.23%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -10.88%E -3.02%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -7.17%E -2.28%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-23 07:04
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.45%EV -8.45%E -4.23%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -7.17%E -1.91%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.30%EV -11.59%E -3.86%K -5.79%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-21 01:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.85%EV -9.37%E -4.73%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.87%EV -9.64%E -2.64%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -8.64%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-16 23:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.85%EV -9.37%E -4.73%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.87%EV -9.64%E -2.64%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -8.64%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-16 23:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.81%EV -9.37%E -4.73%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -15.83%E -4.66%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.09%EV -10.12%E -3.32%K -4.93%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-23 02:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.72%EV -10.28%E -5.25%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -10.88%E -3.02%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.38%EV -10.12%E -3.32%K -4.93%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-16 23:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -10.74%E -5.51%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -10.88%E -3.02%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -8.64%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-21 06:30
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -10.74%E -5.51%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -13.35%E -3.82%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -8.64%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-23 23:04
Unibet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.92%EV -10.74%E -5.51%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.39%EV -14.59%E -4.23%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.69%EV -13.06%E -4.43%K -6.70%G +0.000%14.2%2026-04-23 02:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 44.39%EV -12.11%E -6.31%K -13.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.22%EV -19.54%E -6.01%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.39%EV -14.54%E -5.01%K -7.65%G +0.000%17.3%2026-04-23 02:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 45.89%EV -12.57%E -6.58%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.69%EV -12.12%E -3.41%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 29.41%EV -12.18%E -4.09%K -6.15%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-21 07:22
NetBet (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 45.79%EV -13.03%E -6.86%K -14.48%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.22%EV -14.59%E -4.23%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.00%EV -11.59%E -3.86%K -5.79%G +0.000%15.0%2026-04-23 23:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.08I 48.08%NM 45.78%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.48%5.0%2026-04-24 00:15
Matchbook◎1.97I 50.76%NM 45.04%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.99%2.96I 33.78%NM 29.97%12.7%2026-04-24 01:10
Smarkets◎1.95I 51.28%NM 44.00%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.00%2.86I 34.97%NM 30.00%16.6%2026-04-23 08:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 46.74%3.85I 25.97%NM 20.76%2.46I 40.65%NM 32.49%25.1%2026-04-24 02:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 46.74%3.85I 25.97%NM 20.76%2.46I 40.65%NM 32.49%25.1%2026-04-24 00:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 46.74%3.85I 25.97%NM 20.76%2.46I 40.65%NM 32.49%25.1%2026-04-24 00:09