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Argentinos Juniors v Lanus

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 01:15 UTC

Final: Argentinos Juniors 2–0 Lanus

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Argentinos Juniors (Local)

Prediction 44.80%2.23fair odd
EV -3.67%
Edge -1.71%
Kelly -3.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.55%44.82%44.90%49.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.812.022.022.1555.25%49.58%49.38%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lanus (Visit)

Prediction 23.31%4.29fair odd
EV +2.56%
Edge +0.581%
Kelly +0.752%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.39%23.23%23.20%24.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.554.044.004.4028.17%24.75%25.00%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.89%3.14fair odd
EV +5.23%
Edge +1.58%
Kelly +2.27%
Growth +0.119%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.75%31.96%31.90%32.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.952.953.3037.04%33.89%33.90%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Argentinos Juniors (Local): 44.80%; Lanus (Visit): 23.31%; Draw: 31.89%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.14. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.23%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.68%EV -14.42%E -7.55%K -15.85%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV +2.56%E +0.581%K +0.752%G +0.019%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV +5.23%E +1.58%K +2.27%G +0.119%5.4%2026-05-10 01:09
Unibet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.68%EV -14.42%E -7.55%K -15.85%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV +2.56%E +0.581%K +0.752%G +0.019%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV +5.23%E +1.58%K +2.27%G +0.119%5.4%2026-05-10 01:09
LiveScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.59%EV -18.01%E -9.84%K -21.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -2.10%E -0.501%K -0.658%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV +0.444%E +0.141%K +0.206%G +0.001%10.2%2026-05-10 01:09
Virgin Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.59%EV -18.01%E -9.84%K -21.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -2.10%E -0.501%K -0.658%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV +0.444%E +0.141%K +0.206%G +0.001%10.2%2026-05-10 01:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.63%EV -18.90%E -10.44%K -23.34%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.39%EV -2.10%E -0.501%K -0.658%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -1.15%E -0.371%K -0.548%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-10 01:10
Pinnacle🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.94%EV -3.67%E -1.71%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.95%EV -1.87%E -0.444%K -0.583%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 32.10%EV -4.02%E -1.34%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-10 00:29
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.20%EV -5.91%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV -4.44%E -1.08%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.64%EV -4.34%E -1.45%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-10 01:04
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.94%EV -5.91%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -6.77%E -1.69%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -4.34%E -1.45%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-10 01:04
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%EV -10.39%E -5.20%K -10.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.77%E -1.69%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -4.34%E -1.45%K -2.17%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-10 00:49
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.96%EV -5.91%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -4.44%E -1.08%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.01%EV -5.93%E -2.01%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-10 00:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -5.91%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -9.10%E -2.33%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -5.93%E -2.01%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-09 23:14
Bet Right🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.65%EV -10.39%E -5.20%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.41%EV -9.10%E -2.33%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.95%EV -5.93%E -2.01%K -3.04%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-10 00:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.46%EV -8.15%E -3.98%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.64%EV -13.76%E -3.72%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.90%EV -5.93%E -2.01%K -3.04%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-09 23:14
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.37%EV -10.39%E -5.20%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.88%EV -11.43%E -3.01%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.76%EV -5.93%E -2.01%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-10 00:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.37%EV -5.91%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.00%EV +0.926%E +0.214%K +0.278%G +0.003%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.63%EV -6.89%E -2.36%K -3.59%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-09 23:09
LowVig.ag🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.37%EV -5.91%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.00%EV +0.926%E +0.214%K +0.278%G +0.003%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.63%EV -6.89%E -2.36%K -3.59%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-09 23:09
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.46%EV -5.91%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -6.77%E -1.69%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -7.53%E -2.60%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-10 00:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.46%EV -5.91%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -6.77%E -1.69%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -7.53%E -2.60%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-09 23:50
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.06%EV -8.15%E -3.98%K -7.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.09%EV -6.77%E -1.69%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -7.53%E -2.60%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-10 00:55
FanDuel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -8.15%E -3.98%K -7.76%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.71%EV +0.227%E +0.053%K +0.069%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -9.12%E -3.20%K -4.93%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-10 00:09
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.54%EV -10.39%E -5.20%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 23.88%EV -13.06%E -3.50%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.59%EV -10.08%E -3.57%K -5.54%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-10 00:49
SportsBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%EV -8.15%E -3.98%K -7.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -2.10%E -0.501%K -0.658%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.98%EV -10.72%E -3.83%K -5.95%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-10 00:09
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.90%EV -10.39%E -5.20%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.73%EV -17.25%E -4.86%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.36%EV -10.72%E -3.83%K -5.95%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-09 23:14
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.90%EV -10.39%E -5.20%K -10.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -6.77%E -1.69%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -12.31%E -4.48%K -7.03%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-10 00:09
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.37%EV -10.39%E -5.20%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.76%EV -9.10%E -2.33%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.87%EV -13.91%E -5.15%K -8.18%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-10 00:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.55%EV -10.39%E -5.20%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.19%EV -16.09%E -4.47%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.26%EV -13.91%E -5.15%K -8.18%G +0.000%14.8%2026-05-10 00:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 45.23%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.91%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.86%1.4%2026-05-10 00:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 45.23%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.91%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.86%1.4%2026-05-10 00:44
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 45.23%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.91%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.86%1.4%2026-05-10 00:50
Smarkets◎2.16I 46.30%NM 45.45%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.82%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.73%1.9%2026-05-10 01:05
Matchbook◎2.16I 46.30%NM 45.45%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.82%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.73%1.9%2026-05-10 00:44
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 45.15%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.52%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.33%2.1%2026-05-10 01:00