L’École des cotes

Argentinos Juniors v Lanus

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-10 01:15 UTC

Score final : Argentinos Juniors 2–0 Lanus

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

26 opérateurs (10 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Argentinos Juniors (Local)

Prévision 44.80%2.23cote équitable
EV -3.67%
Avantage -1.71%
Kelly -3.19%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.15

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
43.55%44.82%44.90%49.68%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.812.022.022.1555.25%49.58%49.38%46.51%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Lanus (Visiteur)

Prévision 23.31%4.29cote équitable
EV +2.56%
Avantage +0.581%
Kelly +0.752%
Croissance +0.019%

avec la cote maximale 4.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
21.39%23.23%23.20%24.73%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.554.044.004.4028.17%24.75%25.00%22.73%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 31.89%3.14cote équitable
EV +5.23%
Avantage +1.58%
Kelly +2.27%
Croissance +0.119%

avec la cote maximale 3.30

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
28.75%31.96%31.90%32.98%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.702.952.953.3037.04%33.89%33.90%30.30%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (26 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nul ▼MargeMise à jour
Unibet (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.68%EV -14.42%E -7.55%K -15.85%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV +2.56%E +0.581%K +0.752%G +0.019%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV +5.23%E +1.58%K +2.27%G +0.119%5.4%2026-05-10 01:09
Unibet1.91I 52.36%NM 49.68%EV -14.42%E -7.55%K -15.85%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV +2.56%E +0.581%K +0.752%G +0.019%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV +5.23%E +1.58%K +2.27%G +0.119%5.4%2026-05-10 01:09
LiveScore Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 49.59%EV -18.01%E -9.84%K -21.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -2.10%E -0.501%K -0.658%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV +0.444%E +0.141%K +0.206%G +0.001%10.2%2026-05-10 01:09
Virgin Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 49.59%EV -18.01%E -9.84%K -21.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -2.10%E -0.501%K -0.658%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV +0.444%E +0.141%K +0.206%G +0.001%10.2%2026-05-10 01:09
LeoVegas (SE)1.81I 55.25%NM 49.63%EV -18.90%E -10.44%K -23.34%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.39%EV -2.10%E -0.501%K -0.658%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -1.15%E -0.371%K -0.548%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-10 01:10
Pinnacle2.15I 46.51%NM 44.94%EV -3.67%E -1.71%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.95%EV -1.87%E -0.444%K -0.583%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 32.10%EV -4.02%E -1.34%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-10 00:29
Bovada2.10I 47.62%NM 45.20%EV -5.91%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV -4.44%E -1.08%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.64%EV -4.34%E -1.45%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-10 01:04
theScore Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.94%EV -5.91%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -6.77%E -1.69%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -4.34%E -1.45%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-10 01:04
betfred_uk2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%EV -10.39%E -5.20%K -10.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.77%E -1.69%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -4.34%E -1.45%K -2.17%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-10 00:49
DraftKings2.10I 47.62%NM 44.96%EV -5.91%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -4.44%E -1.08%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.01%EV -5.93%E -2.01%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-10 00:35
Unibet (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -5.91%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -9.10%E -2.33%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -5.93%E -2.01%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-09 23:14
Bet Right2.00I 50.00%NM 45.65%EV -10.39%E -5.20%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.41%EV -9.10%E -2.33%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.95%EV -5.93%E -2.01%K -3.04%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-10 00:50
Winamax (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.46%EV -8.15%E -3.98%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.64%EV -13.76%E -3.72%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.90%EV -5.93%E -2.01%K -3.04%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-09 23:14
Betr (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.37%EV -10.39%E -5.20%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.88%EV -11.43%E -3.01%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.76%EV -5.93%E -2.01%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-10 00:50
BetOnline.ag2.10I 47.62%NM 45.37%EV -5.91%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.00%EV +0.926%E +0.214%K +0.278%G +0.003%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.63%EV -6.89%E -2.36%K -3.59%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-09 23:09
LowVig.ag2.10I 47.62%NM 45.37%EV -5.91%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.00%EV +0.926%E +0.214%K +0.278%G +0.003%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.63%EV -6.89%E -2.36%K -3.59%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-09 23:09
BetMGM2.10I 47.62%NM 44.46%EV -5.91%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -6.77%E -1.69%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -7.53%E -2.60%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-10 00:35
Ladbrokes (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.46%EV -5.91%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -6.77%E -1.69%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -7.53%E -2.60%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-09 23:50
Betway2.05I 48.78%NM 45.06%EV -8.15%E -3.98%K -7.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.09%EV -6.77%E -1.69%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -7.53%E -2.60%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-10 00:55
FanDuel2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -8.15%E -3.98%K -7.76%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.71%EV +0.227%E +0.053%K +0.069%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -9.12%E -3.20%K -4.93%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-10 00:09
Betclic (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 44.54%EV -10.39%E -5.20%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 23.88%EV -13.06%E -3.50%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.59%EV -10.08%E -3.57%K -5.54%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-10 00:49
SportsBet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%EV -8.15%E -3.98%K -7.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -2.10%E -0.501%K -0.658%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.98%EV -10.72%E -3.83%K -5.95%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-10 00:09
Winamax (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.90%EV -10.39%E -5.20%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.73%EV -17.25%E -4.86%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.36%EV -10.72%E -3.83%K -5.95%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-09 23:14
Paddy Power2.00I 50.00%NM 44.90%EV -10.39%E -5.20%K -10.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -6.77%E -1.69%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -12.31%E -4.48%K -7.03%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-10 00:09
Sky Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 44.37%EV -10.39%E -5.20%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.76%EV -9.10%E -2.33%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.87%EV -13.91%E -5.15%K -8.18%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-10 00:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.55%EV -10.39%E -5.20%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.19%EV -16.09%E -4.47%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.26%EV -13.91%E -5.15%K -8.18%G +0.000%14.8%2026-05-10 00:09
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.18I 45.87%NM 45.23%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.91%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.86%1.4%2026-05-10 00:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.18I 45.87%NM 45.23%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.91%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.86%1.4%2026-05-10 00:44
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.18I 45.87%NM 45.23%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.91%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.86%1.4%2026-05-10 00:50
Smarkets2.16I 46.30%NM 45.45%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.82%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.73%1.9%2026-05-10 01:05
Matchbook2.16I 46.30%NM 45.45%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.82%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.73%1.9%2026-05-10 00:44
Kalshi2.17I 46.08%NM 45.15%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.52%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.33%2.1%2026-05-10 01:00