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Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)
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Argentinos Juniors v CA Tigre BA

Início: 2026-10-04 22:15 UTC

Final: Argentinos Juniors 2–1 CA Tigre BA

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

38 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Argentinos Juniors (Local)

Previsão 47.84%2.09odd justa
EV -4.32%
Vantagem -2.16%
Kelly -4.32%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
46.67%48.05%47.72%52.05%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.701.911.912.0058.82%52.46%52.36%50.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

CA Tigre BA (Visitante)

Previsão 21.10%4.74odd justa
EV +12.66%
Vantagem +2.37%
Kelly +2.92%
Crescimento +0.369%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.34

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
17.97%21.05%21.14%22.42%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.004.444.405.3425.00%22.51%22.73%18.73%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 31.06%3.22odd justa
EV +0.950%
Vantagem +0.292%
Kelly +0.422%
Crescimento +0.004%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.25

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.80%30.90%31.14%31.78%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.823.023.003.2535.46%33.07%33.33%30.77%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Argentinos Juniors (Local): 47.84%; CA Tigre BA (Visitante): 21.10%; Empate: 31.06%. Para CA Tigre BA (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.74. 7 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 5.34, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +12.66%.

Odds das casas de apostas (38 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.25%EV -8.62%E -4.52%K -9.48%G +0.000%5.34I 18.73%NM 17.97%EV +12.66%E +2.37%K +2.92%G +0.369%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.78%EV -6.19%E -2.05%K -3.07%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-04 22:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.05%EV -13.89%E -7.72%K -17.36%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV +3.38%E +0.690%K +0.867%G +0.029%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.83%EV +0.950%E +0.292%K +0.422%G +0.004%6.7%2026-10-04 21:50
Unibet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.05%EV -13.89%E -7.72%K -17.36%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV +3.38%E +0.690%K +0.867%G +0.029%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.83%EV +0.950%E +0.292%K +0.422%G +0.004%6.7%2026-10-04 21:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.25%EV -6.23%E -3.18%K -6.49%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.11%EV +1.27%E +0.265%K +0.334%G +0.004%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.64%EV -2.16%E -0.684%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-04 21:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.25%EV -6.23%E -3.18%K -6.49%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.11%EV +1.27%E +0.265%K +0.334%G +0.004%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.64%EV -2.16%E -0.684%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-04 21:50
BetAnything🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.25%EV -6.23%E -3.18%K -6.49%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.11%EV +1.27%E +0.265%K +0.334%G +0.004%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.64%EV -2.16%E -0.684%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-04 21:50
BetRivers🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.79%EV -14.84%E -8.34%K -19.03%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV +0.215%E +0.045%K +0.057%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -0.603%E -0.188%K -0.274%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-04 21:50
Pinnacle🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.35%EV -4.32%E -2.16%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.68I 21.37%NM 20.66%EV -1.26%E -0.270%K -0.343%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.99%EV -3.09%E -0.990%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-04 22:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.21%EV -9.58%E -5.07%K -10.77%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.00%EV -1.89%E -0.407%K -0.519%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.79%EV -6.19%E -2.05%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-04 21:50
FanDuel🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.22%EV -6.71%E -3.44%K -7.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -2.95%E -0.641%K -0.819%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -6.82%E -2.27%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-04 21:59
Virgin Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.56%EV -16.76%E -9.63%K -22.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.50%EV -2.95%E -0.641%K -0.819%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -3.71%E -1.20%K -1.77%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-04 21:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.56%EV -16.76%E -9.63%K -22.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.50%EV -2.95%E -0.641%K -0.819%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -3.71%E -1.20%K -1.77%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-04 21:50
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.32%E -2.16%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -5.06%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -6.82%E -2.27%K -3.41%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-04 22:05
SportsBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -7.19%E -3.71%K -7.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -5.06%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -6.82%E -2.27%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-04 22:10
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.62%E -4.52%K -9.48%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -5.06%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.89%EV -6.82%E -2.27%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-04 21:50
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.62%E -4.52%K -9.48%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -5.06%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.89%EV -6.82%E -2.27%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-04 21:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.68%EV -18.67%E -10.98%K -26.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.52%EV -5.06%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.80%EV -5.26%E -1.73%K -2.57%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-04 21:50
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.39%EV -4.32%E -2.16%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.54%EV -7.17%E -1.63%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.07%EV -5.26%E -1.73%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-04 21:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.51%EV -4.80%E -2.41%K -4.85%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.49%EV -7.17%E -1.63%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -5.26%E -1.73%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-04 21:54
Betsson🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.39%EV -5.28%E -2.66%K -5.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -7.17%E -1.63%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -6.82%E -2.27%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-04 21:55
NordicBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.39%EV -5.28%E -2.66%K -5.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -7.17%E -1.63%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -6.82%E -2.27%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-04 21:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.28%EV -5.28%E -2.66%K -5.38%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.52%EV -8.22%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.20%EV -6.82%E -2.27%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-04 21:50
PlayUp🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%EV -6.71%E -3.44%K -7.06%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.14%EV -8.22%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -9.92%E -3.42%K -5.22%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-04 22:10
Paddy Power🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.65%EV -9.10%E -4.79%K -10.11%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.91%EV -8.65%E -2.00%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -10.54%E -3.66%K -5.61%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-04 22:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.65%EV -9.10%E -4.79%K -10.11%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.91%EV -8.65%E -2.00%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -10.54%E -3.66%K -5.61%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-04 22:10
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.54%EV -6.71%E -3.44%K -7.06%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.56%EV -9.28%E -2.16%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.90%EV -6.82%E -2.27%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-04 22:10
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.79%EV -4.32%E -2.16%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -10.33%E -2.43%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.82%E -2.27%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-04 21:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -4.32%E -2.16%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -11.39%E -2.71%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -6.82%E -2.27%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-04 22:05
BetMGM🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -4.32%E -2.16%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -11.39%E -2.71%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -6.82%E -2.27%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-04 22:05
betfred_uk🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.29%EV -8.62%E -4.52%K -9.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.96%EV -11.39%E -2.71%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -3.71%E -1.20%K -1.77%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-04 21:50
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.01%EV -11.50%E -6.21%K -13.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.15%EV -11.39%E -2.71%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.84%EV -10.54%E -3.66%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-04 21:50
NetBet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 47.97%EV -12.45%E -6.80%K -15.00%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.90%EV -11.39%E -2.71%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.13%EV -12.41%E -4.40%K -6.82%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-04 22:10
Bet Right🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.03%EV -8.62%E -4.52%K -9.48%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.38%EV -13.50%E -3.29%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -3.71%E -1.20%K -1.77%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-04 21:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.43%EV -8.15%E -4.24%K -8.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.21%EV -13.50%E -3.29%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.36%EV -6.82%E -2.27%K -3.41%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-04 21:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.19%EV -10.06%E -5.35%K -11.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.10%EV -13.50%E -3.29%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.71%EV -5.26%E -1.73%K -2.57%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-04 21:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.38%EV -11.50%E -6.21%K -13.52%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.64%EV -14.55%E -3.59%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 30.97%EV -12.10%E -4.27%K -6.61%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-04 21:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 48.03%EV -13.41%E -7.41%K -16.55%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.47%EV -14.55%E -3.59%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.50%EV -11.47%E -4.03%K -6.20%G +0.000%15.0%2026-10-04 21:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.19%EV -9.10%E -4.79%K -10.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.42%EV -15.61%E -3.90%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.39%EV -8.37%E -2.84%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-04 21:50
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.52%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.67%1.0%2026-10-04 21:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.45%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.17%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.38%1.2%2026-10-04 22:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.45%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.17%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.38%1.2%2026-10-04 22:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.45%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.17%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.38%1.2%2026-10-04 22:00
Smarkets◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.70%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.08%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.23%1.7%2026-10-04 22:05