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Italy v England

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 16:40 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Italy (Local)

Prediction 26.93%3.71fair odd
EV -4.38%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -1.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.23%27.12%26.55%29.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.383.403.5531.75%29.54%29.41%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

England (Visit)

Prediction 69.55%1.44fair odd
EV -2.63%
Edge -1.88%
Kelly -6.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.24%69.33%69.87%70.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.341.331.4078.13%74.59%75.19%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.51%28.46fair odd
EV -1.62%
Edge -0.058%
Kelly -0.060%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 28.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.31%3.55%3.57%4.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
23.0025.2525.5028.004.35%3.96%3.92%3.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Italy (Local): 26.93%; England (Visit): 69.55%; Draw: 3.51%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 28.46. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 28.00, with an expected value of -1.62%; they did not produce positive expected value.

12 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Winamax (FR)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -4.38%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.16%EV -6.80%E -5.07%K -20.00%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.36%EV -1.62%E -0.058%K -0.060%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-07 16:30
NetBet (FR)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -4.38%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.32%EV -7.50%E -5.64%K -22.71%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.34%EV -1.62%E -0.058%K -0.060%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-07 16:33
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.73%E -1.64%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.87%EV -7.50%E -5.64%K -22.71%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.57%EV -8.65%E -0.333%K -0.346%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 16:15
SportsBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -5.73%E -1.64%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.55%EV -7.50%E -5.64%K -22.71%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.02%EV -19.19%E -0.834%K -0.872%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-07 16:30
Betsson🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -5.73%E -1.64%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 70.09%EV -8.89%E -6.78%K -28.67%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.67%EV -12.16%E -0.487%K -0.507%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-07 16:29
NordicBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -5.73%E -1.64%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 70.09%EV -8.89%E -6.78%K -28.67%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.67%EV -12.16%E -0.487%K -0.507%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-07 16:35
Coral🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.10%EV -8.42%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.23%EV -2.63%E -1.88%K -6.57%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.67%EV -8.65%E -0.333%K -0.346%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-07 09:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.10%EV -8.42%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.23%EV -2.63%E -1.88%K -6.57%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.67%EV -8.65%E -0.333%K -0.346%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-07 09:30
888sport🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -8.42%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.01%EV -7.50%E -5.64%K -22.71%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.99%EV -19.19%E -0.834%K -0.872%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-07 16:35
888sport (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -8.42%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.01%EV -7.50%E -5.64%K -22.71%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.99%EV -19.19%E -0.834%K -0.872%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-07 16:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -8.42%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.01%EV -7.50%E -5.64%K -22.71%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.99%EV -19.19%E -0.834%K -0.872%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-07 16:34
William Hill🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -11.12%E -3.37%K -4.83%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.29%EV -5.41%E -3.98%K -15.03%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.57%EV -8.65%E -0.333%K -0.346%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-06 15:10
1xBet🎯3.23I 30.96%NM 28.73%EV -13.00%E -4.03%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.24%EV -4.02%E -2.91%K -10.57%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.03%EV -19.19%E -0.834%K -0.872%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-07 16:35
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.15%EV -13.81%E -4.32%K -6.28%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 68.25%EV -8.19%E -6.21%K -25.60%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.60%EV -12.16%E -0.487%K -0.507%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-07 05:14
Marathon Bet🎯3.18I 31.45%NM 29.11%EV -14.35%E -4.51%K -6.58%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 67.58%EV -4.71%E -3.44%K -12.74%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.31%EV -1.62%E -0.058%K -0.060%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-07 16:15
Winamax (DE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 27.92%EV -15.16%E -4.81%K -7.05%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 68.70%EV -10.97%E -8.57%K -39.19%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.38%EV -8.65%E -0.333%K -0.346%G +0.000%13.7%2026-03-07 16:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.75I 26.67%NM 26.61%1.41I 70.92%NM 70.77%38.00I 2.63%NM 2.63%0.2%2026-03-07 16:34
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.75I 26.67%NM 26.61%1.41I 70.92%NM 70.77%38.00I 2.63%NM 2.63%0.2%2026-03-07 16:30
Matchbook◎3.75I 26.67%NM 26.51%1.40I 71.43%NM 71.01%40.00I 2.50%NM 2.49%0.6%2026-03-07 16:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47%1.40I 71.43%NM 70.91%38.00I 2.63%NM 2.61%0.7%2026-03-07 16:35
Smarkets◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%1.40I 71.43%NM 70.66%38.02I 2.63%NM 2.60%1.1%2026-03-07 16:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (12)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯3.69I 27.10%NM 25.90%1.29I 77.52%NM 74.10%4.6%2026-03-07 16:14
PlayUp🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%4.7%2026-03-07 16:09
Grosvenor🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%5.3%2026-03-07 16:29
Unibet (NL)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%5.3%2026-03-07 16:30
Casumo🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%5.3%2026-03-07 16:29
Unibet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%5.3%2026-03-07 16:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%5.3%2026-03-03 22:35
BetRivers🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%6.3%2026-03-07 16:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%6.5%2026-03-07 16:34
Neds🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%6.5%2026-03-07 16:35
TABtouch🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%7.4%2026-03-07 11:00
TAB🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%8.2%2026-03-07 16:34