语言:简体中文
Italy v England
收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →
胜负盘
Italy (主队)
预测 26.93%3.71公平赔率
EV -4.38%
优势 -1.23%
Kelly -1.72%
增长率 +0.000%
假设最高赔率为 3.55
博彩公司预测分布
26.23%27.12%26.55%29.11%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
3.153.383.403.5531.75%29.54%29.41%28.17%最小值均值中位数最大值
England (客队)
预测 69.55%1.44公平赔率
EV -2.63%
优势 -1.88%
Kelly -6.57%
增长率 +0.000%
假设最高赔率为 1.40
博彩公司预测分布
67.24%69.33%69.87%70.32%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.281.341.331.4078.13%74.59%75.19%71.43%最小值均值中位数最大值
平局
预测 3.51%28.46公平赔率
EV -1.62%
优势 -0.058%
Kelly -0.060%
增长率 +0.000%
假设最高赔率为 28.00
博彩公司预测分布
3.31%3.55%3.57%4.03%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
23.0025.2525.5028.004.35%3.96%3.92%3.57%最小值均值中位数最大值
按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Italy (主队)：26.93%；England (客队)：69.55%；平局：3.51%。 对于“平局”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为28.46。 当时没有符合条件的博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率：最佳赔率为28.00，期望值为-1.62%，未产生正期望值。
有 12 家博彩公司为该盘口提供了不同数量的选项（2 个赛果，而分析采用 3 个赛果）。由于这一差异，应谨慎看待分析结果。
博彩公司赔率 (16 家博彩公司)
我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。
| 博彩公司 | 主队 ▼ | 客队 | 平局 | 利润率 | 更新时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -4.38%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.16%EV -6.80%E -5.07%K -20.00%G +0.000% | 28.00I 3.57%NM 3.36%EV -1.62%E -0.058%K -0.060%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-07 16:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -4.38%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.32%EV -7.50%E -5.64%K -22.71%G +0.000% | 28.00I 3.57%NM 3.34%EV -1.62%E -0.058%K -0.060%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-07 16:33 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.73%E -1.64%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.87%EV -7.50%E -5.64%K -22.71%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.57%EV -8.65%E -0.333%K -0.346%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-07 16:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -5.73%E -1.64%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.55%EV -7.50%E -5.64%K -22.71%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.02%EV -19.19%E -0.834%K -0.872%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-07 16:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -5.73%E -1.64%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.09%EV -8.89%E -6.78%K -28.67%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.67%EV -12.16%E -0.487%K -0.507%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-07 16:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -5.73%E -1.64%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.09%EV -8.89%E -6.78%K -28.67%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.67%EV -12.16%E -0.487%K -0.507%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-07 16:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.10%EV -8.42%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.23%EV -2.63%E -1.88%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.67%EV -8.65%E -0.333%K -0.346%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-07 09:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.10%EV -8.42%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.23%EV -2.63%E -1.88%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.67%EV -8.65%E -0.333%K -0.346%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-07 09:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -8.42%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.01%EV -7.50%E -5.64%K -22.71%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 3.99%EV -19.19%E -0.834%K -0.872%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-07 16:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -8.42%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.01%EV -7.50%E -5.64%K -22.71%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 3.99%EV -19.19%E -0.834%K -0.872%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-07 16:34 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -8.42%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.01%EV -7.50%E -5.64%K -22.71%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 3.99%EV -19.19%E -0.834%K -0.872%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-07 16:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -11.12%E -3.37%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.29%EV -5.41%E -3.98%K -15.03%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.57%EV -8.65%E -0.333%K -0.346%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 15:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.23I 30.96%NM 28.73%EV -13.00%E -4.03%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.24%EV -4.02%E -2.91%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.03%EV -19.19%E -0.834%K -0.872%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-07 16:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.15%EV -13.81%E -4.32%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.25%EV -8.19%E -6.21%K -25.60%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.60%EV -12.16%E -0.487%K -0.507%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-03-07 05:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.11%EV -14.35%E -4.51%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.58%EV -4.71%E -3.44%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 28.00I 3.57%NM 3.31%EV -1.62%E -0.058%K -0.060%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-07 16:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.92%EV -15.16%E -4.81%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 68.70%EV -10.97%E -8.57%K -39.19%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.38%EV -8.65%E -0.333%K -0.346%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-03-07 16:30 |
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率
更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。
博彩交易所 (5)
| 博彩公司 | 主队 | 客队 | 平局 | 利润率 ▲ | 更新时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.61% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.77% | 38.00I 2.63%NM 2.63% | 0.2% | 2026-03-07 16:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.61% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.77% | 38.00I 2.63%NM 2.63% | 0.2% | 2026-03-07 16:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.51% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 71.01% | 40.00I 2.50%NM 2.49% | 0.6% | 2026-03-07 16:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.91% | 38.00I 2.63%NM 2.61% | 0.7% | 2026-03-07 16:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.66% | 38.02I 2.63%NM 2.60% | 1.1% | 2026-03-07 16:30 |
其他博彩公司 — 未纳入分析 (12)
这些博彩公司为该盘口提供的选项数量不同，因而未纳入分析。其赔率仅供参考——相关投注的结算规则可能不同，并带来额外的不确定性。
| 博彩公司 | 选项 1 | 选项 2 | 利润率 ▲ | 更新时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.69I 27.10%NM 25.90% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.10% | 4.6% | 2026-03-07 16:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20% | 4.7% | 2026-03-07 16:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 16:29 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 16:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 16:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 16:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33% | 5.3% | 2026-03-03 22:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16% | 6.3% | 2026-03-07 16:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92% | 6.5% | 2026-03-07 16:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92% | 6.5% | 2026-03-07 16:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97% | 7.4% | 2026-03-07 11:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11% | 8.2% | 2026-03-07 16:34 |